I suspect that most people want to see what happens with Move and Kinect before calling it a peak. It is an opportunity to sell to new users and a few existing users at the same time at least a few more games based solely on the novelty of the new experience with the longevity of interest in Move and Kinect not really known at this point.
To raise the software sales again and not peak in 2010 a console has to:
- Sell enough consoles to new users and or
- Increase sales to existing users.
Given the fact that both the Xbox 360 and PS3 meet the criteria for the first possibility and possibly meet the criteria for the 2nd it is fair to say the chances of pushing the software peak out for another year is still open for discussion.
When console owners get their new consoles they tend to buy a larger number of titles quickly to build out their new console library. With the new interfaces there is also the possibility that existing console owners with either Kinect or Move will begin a period of more rapid aquisition of titles as seen by the large quantities of Move titles sold to a relatively small base and the same will likely apply to Kinect.
Lastly we have also seen a steady increase in the number of digitally digistributed titles each year. So whilst on the 360 for instance it probably doesn't amount to more than around 7M titles @ $42 ASP over $300M estimated revenue, it has trended at over 50% YOY increases for as long as I can remember so it should not be forgotten.
Tease.
