Actually if you look at Mario Kart sales, they follow an attach rate on 1/3. This goes for all Mario Karts except the original Super Mario Kart. Mario Kart didn't all of a sudden get more popular, Nintendo consoles got more popular and Mario Kart just happens to be one of Nintendo's finest games.

As for Forza 2 and 3 gaining sales, well quality has improved significantly from Forza 1 to Forza 3, Forza 2 and 3 are also sold on a more popular console, brand name was established after Forza 1, and most importantly, a significant number of gamers who just love racing games switched over to Forza instead of waiting for GT5. (I was one of them, but I later got a PS3 anyway).

As for GT5, how long do you think until a PS4 releases? 3 years maybe? It's going to sell well, I agree, but I don't think anything above 11 million.

Generally releasing a game in the holiday season doesn't really boost sales. Forza Motorsport 2-3, Mass Effect 1-2, Mario Kart Wii, Super Smash Bros Brawl, Pokemon, Grand Theft Auto, and Past GT games (In Japan) all show that holiday releases don't generally change anything.

Yet you can't wrap your head around that and try to force your opinion onto others..

mmhmm gj.

I am merely restating my prediction from a Solid_Snake4RD thread. Yes, I low-balled it to both agitate and fall at the lower end as some in that thread are predicting 11 millio plus lifetime and 4 to 5 million first week. Someone had to drag up the bottom.

I can tell you now my prediction will be wrong if you or I take it at face value.

My internal prediction, which some may be taken aback at after thoroughly hating my low prediction is 1.2 million first week and 9.5 million lifetime.

I apologize for changing it up and pushing buttons. I never mean for anyone to take it personally, nor for anyone including myself to become as predictable in their posting as a Malstrom blog post. Call it hypocrisy, but in the industry in which I work we have to change our approach and demeanor on a dime because the clients we serve, along with all humans, are not predictable creatures. We do have our set habits, but those can be subject to change on a whim if the individual so desires or if compelled to.

I guess that is a long-winded way of saying I am a hypocrite, you are too, so what is the fuss all about?

LOL I guess I can't prove you wrong there.

I wouldn't know about this, I only played Forza 1, but I'll take your word for it.

I think the PS4 will release in 2014. I think the PS3 will reach $199 in 2012. It should be able to hold it's own for 2 more years after that. GT6 releasing in 2014 or 2015 I think. That gives GT5 about 4 years of sales on a current console (unlike GT4 which only had 1 year before 360 released and 2 years before PS3 released). I expect 9 - 11mil.

I know it sold at least one copy now, since I got mine!

Actually I think Mario Kart Wii is the least popular one by a few percent.

Do you really think Sony will release a GT game on the PS3 the year the PS4 is released? I know GT4 just made the punchline, but personally I think the reason why this GT took so long to develop was because they made the core programming take advantage of higher end programming standard. Meaning they made the engine of the game capable of much much more, and it took a while.

2014, that would mean that the PS3 had 8 years of mainstream life. Not bad, but do you really think the 360 can hold strong sales for 9 years? MS may force Sony to update early, and Wii sales are already heading downhill, how long until that console sees a successor?

I'm a hypocrite? How so? I'm prediction 9.3 million, and in the past I predicted 8.5 million, but after IGN gave the game an 8.5/10, I don't think that 8.5 million looks too bad anymore.

Also it's cool to take these predictions laid back. I often argue for the complete opposite opinion of someone just for a good debate. Reading your past comments, I never saw an expression of real concern or anxiety over the predictions of others, so I never debated with you.

You had a low prediction, but you completly acknowledged that higher values were very possible, how can I debate with that?

BTW 1.2 million week 1, as the PS3 holiday exclusive being released almost during the peak of game sales? Don't you think thats a little low considering your LTD prediction of 9.5 million?

IGN, one of the largest online gaming networks gave GT5 an 8.5 out of 10. Thats lower then not only every console GT game IGN has ever reviewed, but also lower then every single Forza Motorsport ever reviewed.

Do you still think GT5 will sell as well as prior GT's? How can it have legs just as strong without the same quality as previous games to back it up? Nevermind the smaller fanbase, and the shrinking popularity of consoles in Japan, and the Playstation brand in Americas...

Just so other people are aware, IGN gave GT2 and GT3 a 9.8/10, GT1, GT4, and Forza Motorsport 1 a 9.5/10, FM3 a 9.4/10, and FM2 an 8.9/10. GT5 got 8.5 out of 10, lower then every console GT game, and Forza Motorsport, and coincidently the same score as GT5P. GT PSP got a 6.8/10 and if you pay attention to sales that game is a critical disapointment.

I'll tell you one thing, I'm not so sure my original 8.5 million prediction was that far off anymore, but I still think 9.3 million lifetime.

i think it'll sell 10 million in the end, i've been playing all all day  and it is the best GT to date regardless of some of the flaws. its just a joy to play and the fans of the series are gonna love it. its just classic gran turismo. new people to racing games and peope who aint played GT before may think its a bit bleak but the majority of GT players are hardcore fans of the series. which is why it'll sell more than 10 million. the fans havnt just vanished all of a sudden.