Best selling.

suprised at all saying similar, i remeber how dumb the vast majority of peeps on here were about GT5 sales potential.

Europe will drive it sales to the 10M mark...then, i don't know what could happen.

bumping threads like this will be fun after all is said and done, I remember when I bumped the Heavy rain will FAIL thread......some naysayer couldn't take it some disappeared ROFL!

If marketed properly and avoiding botching its launch (*cough* Sony *cough*) it could end up as 2nd ever of its series, otherwise 4th (2nd and 3rd are very close, so surpassing the 3rd and stopping between it and the 2nd has smaller probabilities than stopping beyond or below both). 1st is a not impossible, but remote possibility, it depends on how long and good selling PS3 life will be. Obviously even getting 4th place will take a long time and require long legs, not to mention 3rd, 2nd or 1st.

ok, time to throw in my guess (haven't read the whole thread).

GT has traditionally been one of the best selling games on the PS brand. Sorta like Mario Bros. on Nintendo systems, so of course it will do well. However, the PS3 hasn't been moving nearly as much software as the PS2 did, nor does it seem to support 10m sellers, so I think there is no way it beats GT3 unless it becomes the next Wii Fit and every NASCAR fan has to have a copy.

Looking at past trends, GT (series) has sold about 80% of EMEAA in NA, and about 36% of EMEAA in Japan. Trends show that NA got dissinterested (in comparison with EMEAA) in GT with GT4 and the ratio is now closer to 50% of EMEAA. Japan seems to have lost and then regained some interest in GT (in comparison with EMEAA).

So, I'll give GT5 4.5m in EMEAA (best selling game in EMEAA by 700k) and then 50% of that in NA, and 30% of that in Japan. So,

EMEAA = 4.5m, NA = 2.25m, JPN = 1.35m

Total = 8.1m

5th place overall and the #2 game on the PS3 just behind Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. It would be the best selling in EMEAA, 2nd best in Japan only behind FF, and 6th in NA slightly behind MGS4. Even if I'm off by 1m WW it would still land in 5th place.

EDIT: this is probably down from some of my previous predictions. I wouldn't be shocked if this does 10m, but who knows.

it's the first GT on the ps3 and no racing game on any console comes close to it's quality, 2nd best atlest

so what is the timing for predictions because as soon as i receive copy number one I'm declaring me the winner and all subsequent sales will be null and void .

the reason  being you have to stop some where and GT5 could sell for ages

fine print no correspondence will be entered in to

I really didn't expect to see 7 NFS games on PS2, proved me wrong on that one.

My point about Underground/Underground 2 breaking new ground for the series is right though. This can easily be proven by taking a look at the NFS game that came before it. NFS Hot Pursuit 2.  It released in 2002. The game sold 1.89 Million units. The following year, 2003, saw the release of 2 Fast 2 Furious. NFS Underground also released several Months later, with a huge emphasis on moding your car for street races, as seen in FF. The game went on to sell 6.5 Million on PS2 alone.

As for the racing games sales declining. Bullshit. Mario Kart alone can prove this one wrong. Then we can go on to see Forza increasing in popularity, and GT5 Prologue selling 5 Million units on the HD consoles.

 The 'dumb' will be shown when the game comes out and sales a certain amount. Lest we forget that 60% thought the 360 would never again outsell the PS3 any week worldwide. Polls prove nothing. 

Mario Kart Wii has the same attach rate as Mario Kart: Double Dash did for the gamecube, as well as Mario Kart 64 for N64. It's 30.9% and growing, versus 32.2%, versus 30%. One of the principle reasons why Mario Kart is selling better is because the Wii is selling better then past Nintendo consoles. I mean there are more copies of Mario Kart Wii sold then there are gamecubes sold, how could have old Mario Karts possibly sold so well?

As for Forza, Forza Motorsport 2 was heavily bundled, and again sold on a console with a stronger install base. Forza 3 was lightly bundled too, and with GT nowhere in sight, it had the potntial to really sell, unlike Forza 1. Forza 2 and 3 also benefited from stronger marketing.

As for racing games declineing, I kind of agree, but GT shouldn't be affected too much by this. blur was an amazing racing game, developed by bizzarre creations (makers of PGR), and it sold terribly. Also NFS Shift was an amazing game, and still sold poorly.

However you make one really accurate point, NFS peak popularity was when The Fast and the Furious was playing. It may have died down because the number of racing movies has died down as well. However, that still gives reasoning as to why the racing genre is declining.

Before you go on hating me, I still think GT5 will sell 8.5 million or so lifetime. That makes it the second best selling PS3 game, thats pretty damn good.

I'm a massive racing fan, I have 2 steering wheels on my 360 (and I may get a multiconsole porsche wheel to play GT5 in the future). One thing I can claim is that although the sales of an average racer have dropped a bit, but the big indication that the racing genre is declining is that the number of racers are declining. I try to get every good racing game there is and on the PS3/360 I'm limited to about 20 games in the last 5 years. NFS(4), Forza(2), GT(2), Test Drive(2), PGR(2), blur, Motorstorm(2)Codemaster games(4),Ferrari(1),Race Pro(1), Burnout(1) and Midnight Club(1). PS2 definatly saw more then 5 great racing games a year. I mean the number of GT's, NFS's, Burnouts, Test Drives, have all dropped. Only Forza has improved in terms of sales and number of units sold. It's similar to how the number of shooters is increasing this gen (Just this fall we have Halo, CoD, MoH, Vanquish, Front Mission, Goldeneye, Metroid~ish)