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Forums - Sales - NPD to STOP reporting monthly hardware sales (Starting right NOW) :(

teknohick said:

this isn't good news for anyone in the community. its to some companies interests that users don't know exact/specific sales data. its just more information blinded to the public.

npd going private isn't going to give vgchartz any more "legitimacy" than it already has. the site is what it is. its a fan/enthusiast video game sales site. i enjoy this site; its been fairly on target but the numbers are estimates; they have never been exact. sometimes they've been way off.

if anything this harms vgchartz. now its the sole estimate/publisher of numbers and in the end no one really has anything to check against to see how close/near or intact the numbers are. it'll end up causing a lot of trouble for whatever discussion the site has regarding sales. fan boys and trolls can just run that more wild and cause the discussion to become pointless to participate in. whos really to say what numbers are wrong or right? especially when it comes to software which will be harder to track. being off thousands of units IS a big deal. numbers go on in time and you end up getting very wrong results.

if this stays, you'll see even more discussion of vgchartz within the community and that you cant trust or use it as a sole source. thats not a conversation that helps this site.

Yes, NPD going private isn't good for anyone, and no it doesn't make VGChartz legit. I really don't know why GAF thinks this is so big for VGC. As soon as I saw the news I was dissapointed for loss of figures, not happy for VGC.

However, to suggest that NPD isn't providing estimates also is wrong. To say that we need to check VGC against NPD is no more valid than to say that we need to check NPD against VGC. Either way, VGC does check their numbers against financial reports and any other source of valid numbers (for example, estimates by the likes of NPD or press releases by publishers).

No, fanboys can't make up crap, because we know that VGC is accurate enough for our discussions. This argument has been posed over at NeoGAF but they don't accept VGC numbers at all, VGC members should accept VGC numbers. If you are on this website and don't accept that VGC is accurate enough that you are going to disregard the numbers, then why did you start posting here in the first place? To claim that software will take this huge hit just because the US top 10 are slightly missing (we will still get rank and some numbers in reports) is sorta silly.




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Disruption at its best.



nordlead said:

The short (maybe long) story:

A long time ago ioi was a poster over at GAF and he wanted a better way to track numbers than just looking at Famitsu & Media Create. He came up with his own tracking method (using public information and I think along with a tiny sampling of stores, but that may have started later) and built VGChartz only on his own personal server.

Anyways, he wanted to build the website with GAF, but they essentially said it had to be a professional tracking firm or it was pulling numbers out of your ass. After a falling out, ioi started VGCharts.org (which turned into VGChartz.com) and they've been upset over it ever since.

Now, VGChartz never claimed to do a better job than any of those companies. It just offered numbers for the fans that are accurate enough for fans. They banned VGChartz from GAF because they believe the numbers are made up, despite the fact that VGChartz does sample a small percentage of the retail stores around the world.

I believe ioi's initial site began as a compiler of NPD/MC/Enterbrain data, but I'm not 100% sure on that, nor can I remember where I heard that information.

It was my understanding that at some point ioi decided to begin compiling his own data to form his own figures, and the transition from sourcing other groups' figures to using his own is when issues began to arise.  The lack of notable sources for ioi's new information was the root of much of the trouble, with VGChartz detractors claiming ioi's numbers were either copied from NPD/MC/Enterbrain or completely made up on the spot.

In the midst of this conflict came about the unofficial deal between GAF and NPD, at which point David M. Riley began posting on GAF under various usernames, with the primary intent of defaming VGChartz, NPD's newfound competition.  I'd say he spearheaded the anti-VGChartz crusade back in the day, and thus is responsible for much of the animosity this site currently gets.

Ultimately, however, I think ioi's lack of detailed citations for his sources is a large part of why sites like GAF will have trouble ever accepting his data, as well as the fact that if ioi's data is ever even slightly out of line, certain GAF posters will pick up on it and use it as further evidence why VGChartz is "always wrong."  Much of sales-age GAF only see the screw ups as a result.

But that's just my take on the situation.

Seece said:
nordlead said:

No publisher really cares what their game sold to the end consumer. They already know exactly how many copies they shipped, and once those discs are out the door the cash is in their hand.

The publishers use the NPD numbers to gauge market interests and market size. Like, do FPSs sell on the DS? Do platformers thrive on the XBox? That sort of thing.

I think they do, as their next shipments depend on it.

There's also the issue of possible overstock, resulting in returns.  Shipping too many copies of a game can be incredibly dangerous for smaller companies like Atlus and NIS, which is why their titles are often in very short supply soon after release.

nordlead said:

Yes, NPD going private isn't good for anyone, and no it doesn't make VGChartz legit. I really don't know why GAF thinks this is so big for VGC. As soon as I saw the news I was dissapointed for loss of figures, not happy for VGC.

However, to suggest that NPD isn't providing estimates also is wrong. To say that we need to check VGC against NPD is no more valid than to say that we need to check NPD against VGC. Either way, VGC does check their numbers against financial reports and any other source of valid numbers (for example, estimates by the likes of NPD or press releases by publishers).

No, fanboys can't make up crap, because we know that VGC is accurate enough for our discussions. This argument has been posed over at NeoGAF but they don't accept VGC numbers at all, VGC members should accept VGC numbers. If you are on this website and don't accept that VGC is accurate enough that you are going to disregard the numbers, then why did you start posting here in the first place? To claim that software will take this huge hit just because the US top 10 are slightly missing (we will still get rank and some numbers in reports) is sorta silly.

It's big for VGChartz because this site is now the sole public source of data for the US market.  Barring NPD leaks, of course.



makingmusic476 said:

Seece said:
nordlead said:

No publisher really cares what their game sold to the end consumer. They already know exactly how many copies they shipped, and once those discs are out the door the cash is in their hand.

The publishers use the NPD numbers to gauge market interests and market size. Like, do FPSs sell on the DS? Do platformers thrive on the XBox? That sort of thing.

I think they do, as their next shipments depend on it.

There's also the issue of possible overstock, resulting in returns.  Shipping too many copies of a game can be incredibly dangerous for smaller companies like Atlus and NIS, which is why their titles are often in very short supply soon after release.

nordlead said:

Yes, NPD going private isn't good for anyone, and no it doesn't make VGChartz legit. I really don't know why GAF thinks this is so big for VGC. As soon as I saw the news I was dissapointed for loss of figures, not happy for VGC.

However, to suggest that NPD isn't providing estimates also is wrong. To say that we need to check VGC against NPD is no more valid than to say that we need to check NPD against VGC. Either way, VGC does check their numbers against financial reports and any other source of valid numbers (for example, estimates by the likes of NPD or press releases by publishers).

No, fanboys can't make up crap, because we know that VGC is accurate enough for our discussions. This argument has been posed over at NeoGAF but they don't accept VGC numbers at all, VGC members should accept VGC numbers. If you are on this website and don't accept that VGC is accurate enough that you are going to disregard the numbers, then why did you start posting here in the first place? To claim that software will take this huge hit just because the US top 10 are slightly missing (we will still get rank and some numbers in reports) is sorta silly.

It's big for VGChartz because this site is now the sole public source of data for the US market.  Barring NPD leaks, of course.

1st quoted response) I agree, I overstated it, but the NPD reports are used for both, but I have a feeling that publishers know a lot more about retail sales than we do even without NPD numbers due to retailer feedback.

2nd quoted response) yay, we are now the sole public source of data in the US. Now instead of being mocked and compared to NPD we will just get mocked and compared to leak numbers that may or may not be real. This won't magically make us the defacto source, as websites could have posted our numbers any time in the past but chose to ignore it because they thought VGC wasn't credible. The more logical reponse is going to be to continue to ignore it rather than to investigate if VGC is really credible or not. We've been seeing steady growth as a source, but I don't think it is going to magically jump just because NPD stopped their minimal public numbers. Is there potential for new members? sure, we will probably pick up a few. Will it be a big impact? your guess is as good as mine.




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)

darthdevidem01 said:
mike_intellivision said:

It is just amazing to me how differently the tracking services operate in Japan and Europe compared to NPD.  Or how little data the videogame industry wants to give out compared to every other form of entertainment it says it competes against. If you want to be taken seriously, you need numbers (TV, radio, movies) or at least bigger lists (books, music).

I also wonder, given that NPD does not include data from Wal-Mart or Toys R Us (or did not the last time we had this type of discussion), how accurate those numbers really are. I say this because if you go to either of those stores, they generally have much larger displays for Nintendo products than other manufacturers -- and most of the disagreement between VGC and NPD seemed to center around supposed Nintendo overestimation.

This shows goes to show the immaturity of the industry.  It also may be another sign that another crash may soon be coming.

Puh-lease

{flails hands like a robo chick}

The last time the crash came gaming was at its infancy....its like a 4 month old baby having a high fever.....thats fatal.

The industry is too mainstream and massive now to have that kind of a crash.

Well, I don't really expect a crash -- even though every day we hear of another round of layoffs somewhere or disappointing/slowing sales.

But as for being mainstream -- this form of entertainment has the least respect and thanks to this action by NPD, the least pubic "official" information. All while it is being challenged in the SCOTUS regarding free speech in games. And 

Mike from Morgantown 



      


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nordlead said:
makingmusic476 said:

Seece said:
nordlead said:

No publisher really cares what their game sold to the end consumer. They already know exactly how many copies they shipped, and once those discs are out the door the cash is in their hand.

The publishers use the NPD numbers to gauge market interests and market size. Like, do FPSs sell on the DS? Do platformers thrive on the XBox? That sort of thing.

I think they do, as their next shipments depend on it.

There's also the issue of possible overstock, resulting in returns.  Shipping too many copies of a game can be incredibly dangerous for smaller companies like Atlus and NIS, which is why their titles are often in very short supply soon after release.

nordlead said:

Yes, NPD going private isn't good for anyone, and no it doesn't make VGChartz legit. I really don't know why GAF thinks this is so big for VGC. As soon as I saw the news I was dissapointed for loss of figures, not happy for VGC.

However, to suggest that NPD isn't providing estimates also is wrong. To say that we need to check VGC against NPD is no more valid than to say that we need to check NPD against VGC. Either way, VGC does check their numbers against financial reports and any other source of valid numbers (for example, estimates by the likes of NPD or press releases by publishers).

No, fanboys can't make up crap, because we know that VGC is accurate enough for our discussions. This argument has been posed over at NeoGAF but they don't accept VGC numbers at all, VGC members should accept VGC numbers. If you are on this website and don't accept that VGC is accurate enough that you are going to disregard the numbers, then why did you start posting here in the first place? To claim that software will take this huge hit just because the US top 10 are slightly missing (we will still get rank and some numbers in reports) is sorta silly.

It's big for VGChartz because this site is now the sole public source of data for the US market.  Barring NPD leaks, of course.

1st quoted response) I agree, I overstated it, but the NPD reports are used for both, but I have a feeling that publishers know a lot more about retail sales than we do even without NPD numbers due to retailer feedback.

2nd quoted response) yay, we are now the sole public source of data in the US. Now instead of being mocked and compared to NPD we will just get mocked and compared to leak numbers that may or may not be real. This won't magically make us the defacto source, as websites could have posted our numbers any time in the past but chose to ignore it because they thought VGC wasn't credible. The more logical reponse is going to be to continue to ignore it rather than to investigate if VGC is really credible or not. We've been seeing steady growth as a source, but I don't think it is going to magically jump just because NPD stopped their minimal public numbers. Is there potential for new members? sure, we will probably pick up a few. Will it be a big impact? your guess is as good as mine.

But there will inevitably be some people that begin to use VGChartz as a result of this, as it is the next available source after NPD. 

Not everyone hates VGChartz.  Many people simply use NPD because they either view it as somewhat more reliable than VGChartz, or because it's the only source they know, and these people won't necessarily be averse to using VGChartz in the future.  It's not like everybody either uses ioi's numbers or outright disregards them.



As someone who takes VGC numbers with a grain of salt, monthly NPD data will definitely be missed. Still, it's kind of funny to see all this pent up animosity towards VGC come out on GAF in a thread about *NPD* reducing the information they release publicly for their own personal gain. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that this is all ioi's fault somehow. 

NPD is being greedy and I hope to see this situation remedied through leaks. 



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mike_intellivision said:

It is just amazing to me how differently the tracking services operate in Japan and Europe compared to NPD.  Or how little data the videogame industry wants to give out compared to every other form of entertainment it says it competes against. If you want to be taken seriously, you need numbers (TV, radio, movies) or at least bigger lists (books, music).

I also wonder, given that NPD does not include data from Wal-Mart or Toys R Us (or did not the last time we had this type of discussion), how accurate those numbers really are. I say this because if you go to either of those stores, they generally have much larger displays for Nintendo products than other manufacturers -- and most of the disagreement between VGC and NPD seemed to center around supposed Nintendo overestimation.

This shows goes to show the immaturity of the industry.  It also may be another sign that another crash may soon be coming.

 

Mike from Morgantown

If I remember their last statement on this issue correctly, NPD does not track Walmart or Toys R Us directly, but they try and estimate those sales though their consumer surveys.

Unfortunately for them, consumer surveys are notoriously unreliable.



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makingmusic476 said:

Ultimately, however, I think ioi's lack of detailed citations for his sources is a large part of why sites like GAF will have trouble ever accepting his data


This is a real problem.

Brett has never come clean about his sources, probably because they're so few that it's impossible for him to get consistent data. The proof is in the pudding: Brett has consistently missed trend changes, his margin of error is not within 10% as it's often tossed around here - it's around 10% averaging everything (which means big spikes happen) and only on the big ticket numbers.

Ultimately this means his numbers are not reliable.

GAF staff might not like Brett but since his numbers aren't good, there isn't room to argue. 

Personally, I'll pray for leaks to force NPD's hand and save the day.





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NPD has gotten mad at this website before and cut the public numbers off, but if NPD does that, then they risk having other companies come in to fill its place....