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Forums - Sales Discussion - how reliably is vgcharts??

Carl on 26 September 2010
theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Data is collected from select retail sources and then extrapolated on a national (regional) level.


This is the same thing that NPD, Chart Track-GfK, Famitsu and Media Create do.  Because all tracking firms use sampling (extrapolations and algorithms) and cannot track sales on an individual per unit basis, a margin of error exists for all of them.  Because of this, none of them are "correct".

Also to keep in mind, Sony, MS and Nintendo report shipment figures every quarter.   These figures will always differ from the tracking firms (including VGC) because they track consumer sales and a gap will exist between product on store shelves, in wharehouses and in transit (games are usually shipped in container ships....and that takes a minimum of 2 weeks).

 

So how accurate is VGC?  Let's just say that it gets more accurate every day as the sample data grows and the algorithms are tweaked.

Thats funny since it seems to be getting less accurate for ps3 as time goes on, every quarter the difference between shipped and VGs sold ps3s is bigger and bigger, according to VG Sony has been over shipping for over a year now and thats just not possible, so it's obviously not tracking ps3 right for some reason

Afaik, there are markets that Sony ship the PS3 to that ioi doesn't yet have the ability to track. Rather than simply make numbers up for those said markets, they simply don't get tracked. Wii and 360 don't get distributed to as many places as PS3, thus... Those 2 consoles will probably have a more accurate dataset.

At least that's what I think. You'd have to ask ioi to clarify.

No other tracking agency tracks WW either by the way.

If you look atVGC figures for NPD, GFK, Famitsu, MediaCreate... VGC sales numbers are all pretty much in line with each tracker for every console. So I ask you... In which country is it undertracked by a Million or 2?



                            

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theonewhoisme on 26 September 2010
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Data is collected from select retail sources and then extrapolated on a national (regional) level.


This is the same thing that NPD, Chart Track-GfK, Famitsu and Media Create do.  Because all tracking firms use sampling (extrapolations and algorithms) and cannot track sales on an individual per unit basis, a margin of error exists for all of them.  Because of this, none of them are "correct".

Also to keep in mind, Sony, MS and Nintendo report shipment figures every quarter.   These figures will always differ from the tracking firms (including VGC) because they track consumer sales and a gap will exist between product on store shelves, in wharehouses and in transit (games are usually shipped in container ships....and that takes a minimum of 2 weeks).

 

So how accurate is VGC?  Let's just say that it gets more accurate every day as the sample data grows and the algorithms are tweaked.

Thats funny since it seems to be getting less accurate for ps3 as time goes on, every quarter the difference between shipped and VGs sold ps3s is bigger and bigger, according to VG Sony has been over shipping for over a year now and thats just not possible, so it's obviously not tracking ps3 right for some reason

Afaik, there are markets that Sony ship the PS3 to that ioi doesn't yet have the ability to track. Rather than simply make numbers up for those said markets, they simply don't get tracked. Wii and 360 don't get distributed to as many places as PS3, thus... Those 2 consoles will probably have a more accurate dataset.

At least that's what I think. You'd have to ask ioi to clarify.

No other tracking agency tracks WW either by the way.

If you look atVGC figures for NPD, GFK, Famitsu, MediaCreate... VGC sales numbers are all pretty much in line with each tracker for every console. So I ask you... In which country is it undertracked by a Million or 2?

I really wouldn't know, all I know is they are under tracking ps3 and I think it's just unfair for them to ignore ps3s sales rather then make estimates to try and fill in the gaps, I mean alot of their sources already make estimates 



Carl on 26 September 2010
theonewhoisme said:
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Data is collected from select retail sources and then extrapolated on a national (regional) level.


This is the same thing that NPD, Chart Track-GfK, Famitsu and Media Create do.  Because all tracking firms use sampling (extrapolations and algorithms) and cannot track sales on an individual per unit basis, a margin of error exists for all of them.  Because of this, none of them are "correct".

Also to keep in mind, Sony, MS and Nintendo report shipment figures every quarter.   These figures will always differ from the tracking firms (including VGC) because they track consumer sales and a gap will exist between product on store shelves, in wharehouses and in transit (games are usually shipped in container ships....and that takes a minimum of 2 weeks).

 

So how accurate is VGC?  Let's just say that it gets more accurate every day as the sample data grows and the algorithms are tweaked.

Thats funny since it seems to be getting less accurate for ps3 as time goes on, every quarter the difference between shipped and VGs sold ps3s is bigger and bigger, according to VG Sony has been over shipping for over a year now and thats just not possible, so it's obviously not tracking ps3 right for some reason

Afaik, there are markets that Sony ship the PS3 to that ioi doesn't yet have the ability to track. Rather than simply make numbers up for those said markets, they simply don't get tracked. Wii and 360 don't get distributed to as many places as PS3, thus... Those 2 consoles will probably have a more accurate dataset.

At least that's what I think. You'd have to ask ioi to clarify.

No other tracking agency tracks WW either by the way.

If you look atVGC figures for NPD, GFK, Famitsu, MediaCreate... VGC sales numbers are all pretty much in line with each tracker for every console. So I ask you... In which country is it undertracked by a Million or 2?

I really wouldn't know, all I know is they are under tracking ps3 and I think it's just unfair for them to ignore ps3s sales rather then make estimates to try and fill in the gaps, I mean alot of their sources already make estimates

So you want them to randomly make up numbers for certain regions?



                            

theonewhoisme on 26 September 2010
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Data is collected from select retail sources and then extrapolated on a national (regional) level.


This is the same thing that NPD, Chart Track-GfK, Famitsu and Media Create do.  Because all tracking firms use sampling (extrapolations and algorithms) and cannot track sales on an individual per unit basis, a margin of error exists for all of them.  Because of this, none of them are "correct".

Also to keep in mind, Sony, MS and Nintendo report shipment figures every quarter.   These figures will always differ from the tracking firms (including VGC) because they track consumer sales and a gap will exist between product on store shelves, in wharehouses and in transit (games are usually shipped in container ships....and that takes a minimum of 2 weeks).

 

So how accurate is VGC?  Let's just say that it gets more accurate every day as the sample data grows and the algorithms are tweaked.

Thats funny since it seems to be getting less accurate for ps3 as time goes on, every quarter the difference between shipped and VGs sold ps3s is bigger and bigger, according to VG Sony has been over shipping for over a year now and thats just not possible, so it's obviously not tracking ps3 right for some reason

Afaik, there are markets that Sony ship the PS3 to that ioi doesn't yet have the ability to track. Rather than simply make numbers up for those said markets, they simply don't get tracked. Wii and 360 don't get distributed to as many places as PS3, thus... Those 2 consoles will probably have a more accurate dataset.

At least that's what I think. You'd have to ask ioi to clarify.

No other tracking agency tracks WW either by the way.

If you look atVGC figures for NPD, GFK, Famitsu, MediaCreate... VGC sales numbers are all pretty much in line with each tracker for every console. So I ask you... In which country is it undertracked by a Million or 2?

I really wouldn't know, all I know is they are under tracking ps3 and I think it's just unfair for them to ignore ps3s sales rather then make estimates to try and fill in the gaps, I mean alot of their sources already make estimates

So you want them to randomly make up numbers for certain regions?

Estimates isn't randomly making up numbers, and it's better then having and displaying a number you know is way off, think of it this way, if your designing an airplane and there is a variable you have no way of measuring are you going to ignore it and risk letting the plane crash, or give your best guess and compensate? 



Carl on 26 September 2010
theonewhoisme said:

Estimates isn't randomly making up numbers, and it's better then having and displaying a number you know is way off, think of it this way, if your designing an airplane and there is a variable you have no way of measuring are you going to ignore it and risk letting the plane crash, or give your best guess and compensate?

You can't estimate if you have no idea where to begin your estimations.

It could sell 10000 weekly in an untracked region or it could sell 20000 weekly. Then again, it could sell 1000 weekly... Big difference there. You can't just "estimate" when you have no baseline/data to begin your estimation on. Like I said earlier, ioi doesn't yet have the ability/resources to track certain regions. When he does... I can pretty much guarantee the numbers will be changed accordingly.

Until then though... I suggest you check NPD, Gfk, Famitsu and MediaCreate's numbers. Then take a look at VGC numbers for the same regions. There isn't that much difference when you look at lifetime figures. 



                            

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theonewhoisme on 26 September 2010
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:

Estimates isn't randomly making up numbers, and it's better then having and displaying a number you know is way off, think of it this way, if your designing an airplane and there is a variable you have no way of measuring are you going to ignore it and risk letting the plane crash, or give your best guess and compensate?

You can't estimate if you have no idea where to begin your estimations.

It could sell 10000 weekly in an untracked region or it could sell 20000 weekly. Then again, it could sell 1000 weekly... Big difference there. You can't just "estimate" when you have no baseline/data to begin your estimation on. Like I said earlier, ioi doesn't yet have the ability/resources to track certain regions. When he does... I can pretty much guarantee the numbers will be changed accordingly.

Until then though... I suggest you check NPD, Gfk, Famitsu and MediaCreate's numbers. Then take a look at VGC numbers for the same regions. There isn't that much difference when you look at lifetime figures. 

it has Sony's shipped numbers doesn't it, a few calculations (like compare their shipped from one year to the next which both are already over and then minus the amount VG got for it) and you can get a decent estimate of how much their selling in those areas, it would still be inaccurate but it would only be off by maybe half a million at most instead of 2 million plus



rf40928 on 26 September 2010


tarheel91 on 26 September 2010
theonewhoisme said:
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:

Estimates isn't randomly making up numbers, and it's better then having and displaying a number you know is way off, think of it this way, if your designing an airplane and there is a variable you have no way of measuring are you going to ignore it and risk letting the plane crash, or give your best guess and compensate?

You can't estimate if you have no idea where to begin your estimations.

It could sell 10000 weekly in an untracked region or it could sell 20000 weekly. Then again, it could sell 1000 weekly... Big difference there. You can't just "estimate" when you have no baseline/data to begin your estimation on. Like I said earlier, ioi doesn't yet have the ability/resources to track certain regions. When he does... I can pretty much guarantee the numbers will be changed accordingly.

Until then though... I suggest you check NPD, Gfk, Famitsu and MediaCreate's numbers. Then take a look at VGC numbers for the same regions. There isn't that much difference when you look at lifetime figures. 

it has Sony's shipped numbers doesn't it, a few calculations (like compare their shipped from one year to the next which both are already over and then minus the amount VG got for it) and you can get a decent estimate of how much their selling in those areas, it would still be inaccurate but it would only be off by maybe half a million at most instead of 2 million plus

Have you ever taken a statistics class?  Are you aware there are yearly and monthly variations in game sales?  It's no where near as easy as you're making it out to be.



theonewhoisme on 26 September 2010
tarheel91 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:

Estimates isn't randomly making up numbers, and it's better then having and displaying a number you know is way off, think of it this way, if your designing an airplane and there is a variable you have no way of measuring are you going to ignore it and risk letting the plane crash, or give your best guess and compensate?

You can't estimate if you have no idea where to begin your estimations.

It could sell 10000 weekly in an untracked region or it could sell 20000 weekly. Then again, it could sell 1000 weekly... Big difference there. You can't just "estimate" when you have no baseline/data to begin your estimation on. Like I said earlier, ioi doesn't yet have the ability/resources to track certain regions. When he does... I can pretty much guarantee the numbers will be changed accordingly.

Until then though... I suggest you check NPD, Gfk, Famitsu and MediaCreate's numbers. Then take a look at VGC numbers for the same regions. There isn't that much difference when you look at lifetime figures. 

it has Sony's shipped numbers doesn't it, a few calculations (like compare their shipped from one year to the next which both are already over and then minus the amount VG got for it) and you can get a decent estimate of how much their selling in those areas, it would still be inaccurate but it would only be off by maybe half a million at most instead of 2 million plus

Have you ever taken a statistics class?  Are you aware there are yearly and monthly variations in game sales?  It's no where near as easy as you're making it out to be.

The more accurate you want it the harder it would be and the more calculations you'd have to do, but even simple grade school math would be more accurate then ignoring it 



rf40928 on 26 September 2010
theonewhoisme said:
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:

Estimates isn't randomly making up numbers, and it's better then having and displaying a number you know is way off, think of it this way, if your designing an airplane and there is a variable you have no way of measuring are you going to ignore it and risk letting the plane crash, or give your best guess and compensate?

You can't estimate if you have no idea where to begin your estimations.

It could sell 10000 weekly in an untracked region or it could sell 20000 weekly. Then again, it could sell 1000 weekly... Big difference there. You can't just "estimate" when you have no baseline/data to begin your estimation on. Like I said earlier, ioi doesn't yet have the ability/resources to track certain regions. When he does... I can pretty much guarantee the numbers will be changed accordingly.

Until then though... I suggest you check NPD, Gfk, Famitsu and MediaCreate's numbers. Then take a look at VGC numbers for the same regions. There isn't that much difference when you look at lifetime figures. 

it has Sony's shipped numbers doesn't it, a few calculations (like compare their shipped from one year to the next which both are already over and then minus the amount VG got for it) and you can get a decent estimate of how much their selling in those areas, it would still be inaccurate but it would only be off by maybe half a million at most instead of 2 million plus

As time goes on and trends get older its more accurate.. the PS3's lacking sales have been underpeforming since launch.. that can't be changed..

Yea you're right, estimates will be off by max 500k units for PS3 !  you're not going to be off by TWO MILLION !! HAHA..  Those Sony executives and fan boys are really grabbing at air.. they would rather be within 3 million units of the xbox instead of the nearing ( once again ) 6 million by years end..

Lets look at some basic things.. Software sales also tell the story of console sales.After these are gaming consoles... More consoles out there means more games are sold.. pretty basic.. The wii has more consoles so its ways ahead of 360 in software..  the 360 is a WHOPPING 120 million units ahead of the PS3 in GAMES alone ! 120 million ! Does that sound like the Xbox is only 3 million consoles ahead?

How come the PS3 best seller ( COD MW2 ) only sold 8 million, its second best seller GTA sold 6.7 million.. by contrast.. Xbox 360's best seller (COD MW2 ) sold 11.5 million and 360's number two Halo 3 sold 11.16 Million.. In fact Xb360's top 10 games probably outsold PS3's top 20 combined..

Game sales are pretty darn accurate and they say PS3 is in last place.. No one seems to disagree with PS2's great numbers?