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Forums - Sales Discussion - how reliably is vgcharts??

theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Data is collected from select retail sources and then extrapolated on a national (regional) level. 


This is the same thing that NPD, Chart Track-GfK, Famitsu and Media Create do.  Because all tracking firms use sampling (extrapolations and algorithms) and cannot track sales on an individual per unit basis, a margin of error exists for all of them.  Because of this, none of them are "correct".  

Also to keep in mind, Sony, MS and Nintendo report shipment figures every quarter.   These figures will always differ from the tracking firms (including VGC) because they track consumer sales and a gap will exist between product on store shelves, in wharehouses and in transit (games are usually shipped in container ships....and that takes a minimum of 2 weeks).

 

So how accurate is VGC?  Let's just say that it gets more accurate every day as the sample data grows and the algorithms are tweaked.

Thats funny since it seems to be getting less accurate for ps3 as time goes on, every quarter the difference between shipped and VGs sold ps3s is bigger and bigger, according to VG Sony has been over shipping for over a year now and thats just not possible, so it's obviously not tracking ps3 right for some reason or tweaking it to make it more accurate 

Never assume that shipped consoles have a constant parallel trend to consumer sales.   I can point out a quarter where Sony only shipped 10,000 PSP units but sold 2 million at retail.  The reason this happened is because the quarters prior had shpments far greater than the consumer market was absorbing. 

I can show you a similar circmstance with the X360 a few years back.

Market absoption, warehousing, aggressive speculative ordering, new market channels, transit varriances, etc...all can lead to huge shifts in the gap between sold and shipped.   You cannot just say shipped minus x amount as a constant equals sold.  So you are assuming they are beincing less accurate with their PS3 numbers based on an increased gap between Sony reported units shipped and VGC reported units sold and while it's understandable to wonder why the discrepency, it's not at all an odd phenomenon to those that comprehend how market supply chains work.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

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rf40928 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:

Estimates isn't randomly making up numbers, and it's better then having and displaying a number you know is way off, think of it this way, if your designing an airplane and there is a variable you have no way of measuring are you going to ignore it and risk letting the plane crash, or give your best guess and compensate?

You can't estimate if you have no idea where to begin your estimations.

It could sell 10000 weekly in an untracked region or it could sell 20000 weekly. Then again, it could sell 1000 weekly... Big difference there. You can't just "estimate" when you have no baseline/data to begin your estimation on. Like I said earlier, ioi doesn't yet have the ability/resources to track certain regions. When he does... I can pretty much guarantee the numbers will be changed accordingly.

Until then though... I suggest you check NPD, Gfk, Famitsu and MediaCreate's numbers. Then take a look at VGC numbers for the same regions. There isn't that much difference when you look at lifetime figures. 

it has Sony's shipped numbers doesn't it, a few calculations (like compare their shipped from one year to the next which both are already over and then minus the amount VG got for it) and you can get a decent estimate of how much their selling in those areas, it would still be inaccurate but it would only be off by maybe half a million at most instead of 2 million plus

As time goes on and trends get older its more accurate.. the PS3's lacking sales have been underpeforming since launch.. that can't be changed..

Yea you're right, estimates will be off by max 500k units for PS3 !  you're not going to be off by TWO MILLION !! HAHA..  Those Sony executives and fan boys are really grabbing at air.. they would rather be within 3 million units of the xbox instead of the nearing ( once again ) 6 million by years end..

Lets look at some basic things.. Software sales also tell the story of console sales.After these are gaming consoles... More consoles out there means more games are sold.. pretty basic.. The wii has more consoles so its ways ahead of 360 in software..  the 360 is a WHOPPING 120 million units ahead of the PS3 in GAMES alone ! 120 million ! Does that sound like the Xbox is only 3 million consoles ahead?

How come the PS3 best seller ( COD MW2 ) only sold 8 million, its second best seller GTA sold 6.7 million.. by contrast.. Xbox 360's best seller (COD MW2 ) sold 11.5 million and 360's number two Halo 3 sold 11.16 Million.. In fact Xb360's top 10 games probably outsold PS3's top 20 combined..

Game sales are pretty darn accurate and they say PS3 is in last place.. No one seems to disagree with PS2's great numbers?

You aren't factoring in the fact that the 360 had a year head start, that adds alot more to games then it does to hardware, Sony has outsold the 360 in software sales a few times now atleast one of them was over a whole year (and only that year), thats with VG putting it at 6 million behind, how exactly is that possible? 

EDIT: I thought you might want a link http://www.playstationuniversity.com/ps3-software-sales-outstrip-xbox-360s-ps3-attach-rate-up-to-8-1-3807/ so in 2009 ps3 had more software sales then the 360, not by much, but the 360 was obviously ahead in sales by some amount due to their year head start 



Viper1 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Data is collected from select retail sources and then extrapolated on a national (regional) level. 


This is the same thing that NPD, Chart Track-GfK, Famitsu and Media Create do.  Because all tracking firms use sampling (extrapolations and algorithms) and cannot track sales on an individual per unit basis, a margin of error exists for all of them.  Because of this, none of them are "correct".  

Also to keep in mind, Sony, MS and Nintendo report shipment figures every quarter.   These figures will always differ from the tracking firms (including VGC) because they track consumer sales and a gap will exist between product on store shelves, in wharehouses and in transit (games are usually shipped in container ships....and that takes a minimum of 2 weeks).

 

So how accurate is VGC?  Let's just say that it gets more accurate every day as the sample data grows and the algorithms are tweaked.

Thats funny since it seems to be getting less accurate for ps3 as time goes on, every quarter the difference between shipped and VGs sold ps3s is bigger and bigger, according to VG Sony has been over shipping for over a year now and thats just not possible, so it's obviously not tracking ps3 right for some reason or tweaking it to make it more accurate 

Never assume that shipped consoles have a constant parallel trend to consumer sales.   I can point out a quarter where Sony only shipped 10,000 PSP units but sold 2 million at retail.  The reason this happened is because the quarters prior had shpments far greater than the consumer market was absorbing. 

I can show you a similar circmstance with the X360 a few years back.

Market absoption, warehousing, aggressive speculative ordering, new market channels, transit varriances, etc...all can lead to huge shifts in the gap between sold and shipped.   You cannot just say shipped minus x amount as a constant equals sold.  So you are assuming they are beincing less accurate with their PS3 numbers based on an increased gap between Sony reported units shipped and VGC reported units sold and while it's understandable to wonder why the discrepency, it's not at all an odd phenomenon to those that comprehend how market supply chains work.

if it was one or two quarters I might agree, but when it's off by 2 million and was off in the same way for a whole year I don't, you can't sell a console if it isn't shipped so of course it has a parallel to sold, constant no, thats where complex calculations come in, at anyrate, ignoring sales is not the way to go



theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Never assume that shipped consoles have a constant parallel trend to consumer sales.   I can point out a quarter where Sony only shipped 10,000 PSP units but sold 2 million at retail.  The reason this happened is because the quarters prior had shpments far greater than the consumer market was absorbing. 

I can show you a similar circmstance with the X360 a few years back.

Market absoption, warehousing, aggressive speculative ordering, new market channels, transit varriances, etc...all can lead to huge shifts in the gap between sold and shipped.   You cannot just say shipped minus x amount as a constant equals sold.  So you are assuming they are beincing less accurate with their PS3 numbers based on an increased gap between Sony reported units shipped and VGC reported units sold and while it's understandable to wonder why the discrepency, it's not at all an odd phenomenon to those that comprehend how market supply chains work.

if it was one or two quarters I might agree, but when it's off by 2 million and was off in the same way for a whole year I don't, you can't sell a console if it isn't shipped so of course it has a parallel to sold, constant no, thats where complex calculations come in, at anyrate, ignoring sales is not the way to go

Sounds like me like you are looking at it backwards.  Not so much why is VGC so wide PS3 shipped to sold gap but why are they so narrow on X360 shipped to sold gap?

2 million in transit, warehousing, new markets, on shelves, etc...that's actually not too much of a gap.  X360 is usually also nearer a 2 million difference.  The X360 shipped to sold difference is is more narrow now because they are selling more X360's at retail than they shipping them. 

Does that make sense to you now?



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Viper1 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Never assume that shipped consoles have a constant parallel trend to consumer sales.   I can point out a quarter where Sony only shipped 10,000 PSP units but sold 2 million at retail.  The reason this happened is because the quarters prior had shpments far greater than the consumer market was absorbing. 

I can show you a similar circmstance with the X360 a few years back.

Market absoption, warehousing, aggressive speculative ordering, new market channels, transit varriances, etc...all can lead to huge shifts in the gap between sold and shipped.   You cannot just say shipped minus x amount as a constant equals sold.  So you are assuming they are beincing less accurate with their PS3 numbers based on an increased gap between Sony reported units shipped and VGC reported units sold and while it's understandable to wonder why the discrepency, it's not at all an odd phenomenon to those that comprehend how market supply chains work.

if it was one or two quarters I might agree, but when it's off by 2 million and was off in the same way for a whole year I don't, you can't sell a console if it isn't shipped so of course it has a parallel to sold, constant no, thats where complex calculations come in, at anyrate, ignoring sales is not the way to go

Sounds like me like you are looking at it backwards.  Not so much why is VGC so wide PS3 shipped to sold gap but why are they so narrow on X360 shipped to sold gap?

2 million in transit, warehousing, new markets, on shelves, etc...that's actually not too much of a gap.  X360 is usually also nearer a 2 million difference.  The X360 shipped to sold difference is is more narrow now because they are selling more X360's at retail than they shipping them. 

Does that make sense to you now?

So you are saying they are giving 360 sales it doesn't have instead of ignoring ps3 sales, thats even worse 



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theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Sounds like me like you are looking at it backwards.  Not so much why is VGC so wide PS3 shipped to sold gap but why are they so narrow on X360 shipped to sold gap?

2 million in transit, warehousing, new markets, on shelves, etc...that's actually not too much of a gap.  X360 is usually also nearer a 2 million difference.  The X360 shipped to sold difference is is more narrow now because they are selling more X360's at retail than they shipping them. 

Does that make sense to you now?

So you are saying they are giving 360 sales it doesn't have instead of ignoring ps3 sales, thats even worse 

Not at all.  I don't think you grasped what I was saying then.

Picture a 2 million unit gap on average between shipped and sold.  Now if sales pick up much faster than the rate they ship units, that gap will narrow.  The launch of the X360 S model is selling much faster than the older X360 models did in previous quarters.  This narrows the gap between units shipped and units sold.


More clear to you now?



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Viper1 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Sounds like me like you are looking at it backwards.  Not so much why is VGC so wide PS3 shipped to sold gap but why are they so narrow on X360 shipped to sold gap?

2 million in transit, warehousing, new markets, on shelves, etc...that's actually not too much of a gap.  X360 is usually also nearer a 2 million difference.  The X360 shipped to sold difference is is more narrow now because they are selling more X360's at retail than they shipping them. 

Does that make sense to you now?

So you are saying they are giving 360 sales it doesn't have instead of ignoring ps3 sales, thats even worse 

Not at all.  I don't think you grasped what I was saying then.

Picture a 2 million unit gap on average between shipped and sold.  Now if sales pick up much faster than the rate they ship units, that gap will narrow.  The launch of the X360 S model is selling much faster than the older X360 models did in previous quarters.  This narrows the gap between units shipped and units sold.


More clear to you now?

But VG chartz had Sony having a bigger gap then MS for 3 quarters in a row, 



theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Not at all.  I don't think you grasped what I was saying then.

Picture a 2 million unit gap on average between shipped and sold.  Now if sales pick up much faster than the rate they ship units, that gap will narrow.  The launch of the X360 S model is selling much faster than the older X360 models did in previous quarters.  This narrows the gap between units shipped and units sold.


More clear to you now?

But VG chartz had Sony having a bigger gap then MS for 3 quarters in a row, 

Now look back on my earlier posts and put it all together.

Different shipment/sales rates, market absorption, warehousing, aggressive speculative ordering, transit variances, store shelving allocations, new markets, etc...

Far too many factors to consider that can easily account for the gap issue.   As I already mentioned, this has happened before with the PSP and X360...not just right now with PS3.   It's a common phenomenon is market supply lines and happens in every industry on the planet.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Viper1 said:

Data is collected from select retail sources and then extrapolated on a national (regional) level.


This is the same thing that NPD, Chart Track-GfK, Famitsu and Media Create do.  Because all tracking firms use sampling (extrapolations and algorithms) and cannot track sales on an individual per unit basis, a margin of error exists for all of them.  Because of this, none of them are "correct".

Also to keep in mind, Sony, MS and Nintendo report shipment figures every quarter.   These figures will always differ from the tracking firms (including VGC) because they track consumer sales and a gap will exist between product on store shelves, in wharehouses and in transit (games are usually shipped in container ships....and that takes a minimum of 2 weeks).

 

So how accurate is VGC?  Let's just say that it gets more accurate every day as the sample data grows and the algorithms are tweaked.

Thats funny since it seems to be getting less accurate for ps3 as time goes on, every quarter the difference between shipped and VGs sold ps3s is bigger and bigger, according to VG Sony has been over shipping for over a year now and thats just not possible, so it's obviously not tracking ps3 right for some reason

Afaik, there are markets that Sony ship the PS3 to that ioi doesn't yet have the ability to track. Rather than simply make numbers up for those said markets, they simply don't get tracked. Wii and 360 don't get distributed to as many places as PS3, thus... Those 2 consoles will probably have a more accurate dataset.

At least that's what I think. You'd have to ask ioi to clarify.

No other tracking agency tracks WW either by the way.

If you look atVGC figures for NPD, GFK, Famitsu, MediaCreate... VGC sales numbers are all pretty much in line with each tracker for every console. So I ask you... In which country is it undertracked by a Million or 2?

I really wouldn't know, all I know is they are under tracking ps3 and I think it's just unfair for them to ignore ps3s sales rather then make estimates to try and fill in the gaps, I mean alot of their sources already make estimates

So you want them to randomly make up numbers for certain regions?

they did it for the move.. don't know why they wouldn't do it for the ps3 or other video game hardware



 

mM
theonewhoisme said:
rf40928 said:
theonewhoisme said:
Carl2291 said:
theonewhoisme said:

Estimates isn't randomly making up numbers, and it's better then having and displaying a number you know is way off, think of it this way, if your designing an airplane and there is a variable you have no way of measuring are you going to ignore it and risk letting the plane crash, or give your best guess and compensate?

You can't estimate if you have no idea where to begin your estimations.

It could sell 10000 weekly in an untracked region or it could sell 20000 weekly. Then again, it could sell 1000 weekly... Big difference there. You can't just "estimate" when you have no baseline/data to begin your estimation on. Like I said earlier, ioi doesn't yet have the ability/resources to track certain regions. When he does... I can pretty much guarantee the numbers will be changed accordingly.

Until then though... I suggest you check NPD, Gfk, Famitsu and MediaCreate's numbers. Then take a look at VGC numbers for the same regions. There isn't that much difference when you look at lifetime figures. 

it has Sony's shipped numbers doesn't it, a few calculations (like compare their shipped from one year to the next which both are already over and then minus the amount VG got for it) and you can get a decent estimate of how much their selling in those areas, it would still be inaccurate but it would only be off by maybe half a million at most instead of 2 million plus

As time goes on and trends get older its more accurate.. the PS3's lacking sales have been underpeforming since launch.. that can't be changed..

Yea you're right, estimates will be off by max 500k units for PS3 !  you're not going to be off by TWO MILLION !! HAHA..  Those Sony executives and fan boys are really grabbing at air.. they would rather be within 3 million units of the xbox instead of the nearing ( once again ) 6 million by years end..

Lets look at some basic things.. Software sales also tell the story of console sales.After these are gaming consoles... More consoles out there means more games are sold.. pretty basic.. The wii has more consoles so its ways ahead of 360 in software..  the 360 is a WHOPPING 120 million units ahead of the PS3 in GAMES alone ! 120 million ! Does that sound like the Xbox is only 3 million consoles ahead?

How come the PS3 best seller ( COD MW2 ) only sold 8 million, its second best seller GTA sold 6.7 million.. by contrast.. Xbox 360's best seller (COD MW2 ) sold 11.5 million and 360's number two Halo 3 sold 11.16 Million.. In fact Xb360's top 10 games probably outsold PS3's top 20 combined..

Game sales are pretty darn accurate and they say PS3 is in last place.. No one seems to disagree with PS2's great numbers?

You aren't factoring in the fact that the 360 had a year head start, that adds alot more to games then it does to hardware, Sony has outsold the 360 in software sales a few times now atleast one of them was over a whole year (and only that year), thats with VG putting it at 6 million behind, how exactly is that possible? 

EDIT: I thought you might want a link http://www.playstationuniversity.com/ps3-software-sales-outstrip-xbox-360s-ps3-attach-rate-up-to-8-1-3807/ so in 2009 ps3 had more software sales then the 360, not by much, but the 360 was obviously ahead in sales by some amount due to their year head start 


The problem is Xbox 360's first YEAR they only sold about 25-30 million games.. so that means they weren't very far ahead in game sales when the PS3 was launched ( at the time titles weren't exactly oozing from all places as they were getting started and argulably the PS3 has just a smany titles or more on their launch because developers started developing for both consoles around the same time, but PS3 launch was delayed ) .. Fast forward to now .. the 360 library has about 150 more titles then the PS3's ..which shatters another well placed Sony marketing scheme that there aren't many game choices on the 360 which is bogus.. So subtract the games 360 sold the first year and they are still near mid-90 million game units ahead .. not too shabby..

The Xbox 360 ships to places like the congo area which are hard to track as well.. so does the Wii..  The problem is Sony says they shipped this, but they can be stored for weeks or months not moving volume.. this was the case where I live where Sony was saying publicly that Christmas sales were lagging because they couldnt ship enough - yet there are all these units sitting on walmart floors not selling.. What is shipped by Sony, MS, Ninendo doesnt equal what is sold..

Anyone can argue this, but Im going to say by end of fiscal year shipments versus units sold are pretty solid.. So at the end of that fiscal year they can actually see what was sold in dollars and cents.. We have how many fiscal years of underwhleming Sony sales?   Its time for fanboys to face it.. the PS3 will never be the PS2 and its been rumored Sony is burning the midnight oil trying to get their new console out alittle before MS this time.. What did the PS3 have in common with the PS2 ? Not the launch... The PS2 launched 1.5 yrs ahead of the gamecube and nearly 2 yrs before the Xbox 1.. Wow.. No wonder they dominated after the strong lnauch of PS1 !  PS3 is different - lets see launched LATE, launched EXPENSIVE with a media disc which was not YET a standard like DVD... all great combinations for success suicide.. And now somehow fans want a recount ? Lets get real !