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Forums - Sales - Will the PS3 overtake the XBox 360 in 2 years?

evolution_1ne said:
Michael-5 said:

I think the only way PS3 will overtake 360 in overall sales is if PS4 comes out a year later then X-Box successor, and even then it's iffy.

In the 4 years since PS3's launch, PS3 sales have only been above 360 sales ocassionally during a big game release, and since the PS3 Slim. Now that the PS3's Slim effect has worn off, Microsoft has a temporary lead due to a slightly better fall lineup (Kinect > Move, Halo = GT5, Fable = LBP), and it's own Slim effect. In 2011, both Slim effects will have faded, and it will most likely be like it was before the PS3 slim effect. This isn't garenteed, but regardless Sony will be having a hard time just selling above the 360, nevermind catching up a potential 6 million console difference by the end of the year

and then Sony drops the price of the ps3 to 199.........

why oh why do people always seem to ignore the fact that the lowest selling ps3 sku is at 299, remember the ps3 during the time it slaughtered the 360 due to the price cut last year.......was STILL the most expensive console on the market....

PS3 outsold 360 last year because of a Slim redesign and a price cut to boost it. Now 360 is outselling the PS3 on an almost equal level with only a redesign and no price cut. A price cut to $200 would affect both consoles equally.

PS3 had many price cuts from it's initial $600 price tag, and only the only with the redesign pushed sales above 360 level. Why do you beleive, against the statistics, that a $100 price cut on both consoles with no redesign will favor PS3 more, when it hasn't in the past? If anything, wouldn't it favor the 360 more since the arcade model will be selling for $100-$130 US? At that price, the consoles costs the same as a couple new games, how many people can ignore that?

The 360 has been outselling the PS3 consistantly until last August due to the PS3 Slim redesign. Now Microsoft has balanced the scales with it's own Slim redesign, and it will remain the better selling console of the two for the remainder of the generation (outside a few weeks due to large PS3 game releases like GT5). Also Kinect may really push sales towards the 360, Move won't do much for PS3 at all.



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Michael-5 said:
evolution_1ne said:
Michael-5 said:

I think the only way PS3 will overtake 360 in overall sales is if PS4 comes out a year later then X-Box successor, and even then it's iffy.

In the 4 years since PS3's launch, PS3 sales have only been above 360 sales ocassionally during a big game release, and since the PS3 Slim. Now that the PS3's Slim effect has worn off, Microsoft has a temporary lead due to a slightly better fall lineup (Kinect > Move, Halo = GT5, Fable = LBP), and it's own Slim effect. In 2011, both Slim effects will have faded, and it will most likely be like it was before the PS3 slim effect. This isn't garenteed, but regardless Sony will be having a hard time just selling above the 360, nevermind catching up a potential 6 million console difference by the end of the year

and then Sony drops the price of the ps3 to 199.........

why oh why do people always seem to ignore the fact that the lowest selling ps3 sku is at 299, remember the ps3 during the time it slaughtered the 360 due to the price cut last year.......was STILL the most expensive console on the market....

PS3 outsold 360 last year because of a Slim redesign and a price cut to boost it. Now 360 is outselling the PS3 on an almost equal level with only a redesign and no price cut. A price cut to $200 would affect both consoles equally.

PS3 had many price cuts from it's initial $600 price tag, and only the only with the redesign pushed sales above 360 level. Why do you beleive, against the statistics, that a $100 price cut on both consoles with no redesign will favor PS3 more, when it hasn't in the past? If anything, wouldn't it favor the 360 more since the arcade model will be selling for $100-$130 US? At that price, the consoles costs the same as a couple new games, how many people can ignore that?

The 360 has been outselling the PS3 consistantly until last August due to the PS3 Slim redesign. Now Microsoft has balanced the scales with it's own Slim redesign, and it will remain the better selling console of the two for the remainder of the generation (outside a few weeks due to large PS3 game releases like GT5). Also Kinect may really push sales towards the 360, Move won't do much for PS3 at all.

Just going to say, GT might not be THAT much of a effect against console sales.  the Kinect bundle might really effect the sales of 360, seeing as Kinect already has 100,000 pre-orders on it.  That first week people who are open to motion controlling will show if Kinect has a "WOW" effect, and into december will see if it has that.  I say "WOW" effect, cause that's what every person that has actually tested the tech out has stated (other than harsh critics of the gaming industry), and that's how many casual gamers reacted when they played with Wii.



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It's going to stay a real close race no matter what... 360 seems to still have alot of steam and Sony is growing nicely. A distinct winner between the two is not very likely.



-- Nothing is nicer than seeing your PS3 on an HDTV through an HDMI cable for the first time.

reidlosdog said:
Michael-5 said:
evolution_1ne said:
Michael-5 said:

I think the only way PS3 will overtake 360 in overall sales is if PS4 comes out a year later then X-Box successor, and even then it's iffy.

In the 4 years since PS3's launch, PS3 sales have only been above 360 sales ocassionally during a big game release, and since the PS3 Slim. Now that the PS3's Slim effect has worn off, Microsoft has a temporary lead due to a slightly better fall lineup (Kinect > Move, Halo = GT5, Fable = LBP), and it's own Slim effect. In 2011, both Slim effects will have faded, and it will most likely be like it was before the PS3 slim effect. This isn't garenteed, but regardless Sony will be having a hard time just selling above the 360, nevermind catching up a potential 6 million console difference by the end of the year

and then Sony drops the price of the ps3 to 199.........

why oh why do people always seem to ignore the fact that the lowest selling ps3 sku is at 299, remember the ps3 during the time it slaughtered the 360 due to the price cut last year.......was STILL the most expensive console on the market....

PS3 outsold 360 last year because of a Slim redesign and a price cut to boost it. Now 360 is outselling the PS3 on an almost equal level with only a redesign and no price cut. A price cut to $200 would affect both consoles equally.

PS3 had many price cuts from it's initial $600 price tag, and only the only with the redesign pushed sales above 360 level. Why do you beleive, against the statistics, that a $100 price cut on both consoles with no redesign will favor PS3 more, when it hasn't in the past? If anything, wouldn't it favor the 360 more since the arcade model will be selling for $100-$130 US? At that price, the consoles costs the same as a couple new games, how many people can ignore that?

The 360 has been outselling the PS3 consistantly until last August due to the PS3 Slim redesign. Now Microsoft has balanced the scales with it's own Slim redesign, and it will remain the better selling console of the two for the remainder of the generation (outside a few weeks due to large PS3 game releases like GT5). Also Kinect may really push sales towards the 360, Move won't do much for PS3 at all.

Just going to say, GT might not be THAT much of a effect against console sales.  the Kinect bundle might really effect the sales of 360, seeing as Kinect already has 100,000 pre-orders on it.  That first week people who are open to motion controlling will show if Kinect has a "WOW" effect, and into december will see if it has that.  I say "WOW" effect, cause that's what every person that has actually tested the tech out has stated (other than harsh critics of the gaming industry), and that's how many casual gamers reacted when they played with Wii.

Wow I think I misread your older point because now I see your supporting 360 dominance.

Anyway, well I think I disagree on your next message. I think GT5 and Kinect both have the potential to encourage people to buy their respective console more then the other. GT5 will be huge in EMEAA (usually sells about twice as well there), and it will help keep EMEAA sales in favor of PS3. However, if Kinect really takes off then Americas sales may be in favor of the 360 2:1 (potentially). I know Kinect will take off, but I really doubt that this peripheral will steal future Wii sales. It has potential, but it's so hard to judge it's success.

Getting back onto PS3 outselling 360 in 2 year, it can't. Microsoft has a much stronger lineup this fall, and "the trump card" that pushed PS3 sales over 360 (The slim effect). A lot more attention is being placed on Microsoft this fall, GT5 cannot replicated Halo, Kinect, and the Slim Effect all on it's own.

So if PS3 were to outsell the 360, it would somehow have to sell 6 million more consoles from January 2011 until September 2012, and no thats not possible. Outselling the 360 without the Slim Effect has never been done on the PS3, and now you expect it to outsell the 360 by 6 million in less then 2 years? I see no reason for PS3 sales to jump after this fall, and I see no reason for 360 sales to drop.

At best case, PS3 outsells the 360 by a million units in 2011-2014. That reduces the initial lead that the 360 had, but doesn't put PS3 above 360. Thats the best chance PS3 has IMO, but even then, I just don't think PS3 will outsell the 360 after this fall. I think the difference will grow to 7 million, and it will only stop growing if Microsoft replaces the 360 a year before Sony replaces the PS3. Even then it would need more then a year to catch up as sales on both consoles will probably have dropped by then.



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Not sure what else could be said here that hasn't already except for the fact that, by the time this is all said and done? It probably won't matter anyways.

Sony is finally making some cash per console and they're not about to rock that boat when they're turning a profit. Price drops just don't seem like they're going to be in the foreseeable future. In turn, Microsoft won't feel threatened and they'll keep the prices as they are, at least until they decide how to fiddle with their Kinect balacing act. So, no price drops there for sales rates.

Games have tended to sell consoles, but these days? Halo: Reach and GT5, I don't think either one is going to have a tonne of effect on console sales because, frankly, those who want them have probably already got a PS3 and 360. I mean, they've both been eagerly anticipated for quite some time and, as has already been shown, people had plenty of consoles already for Halo 3 and GT5: Prologue, so it would make sense to think that there will be no spike for either one. Kinect and Move, maybe so, not sure, but those, too, seem like something that will be for the masses who have already purchased. So, I just can't reasonably claim there will be a true spike on any of those either.

By the end of this year or beginning of next, the 360's Slim numbers will start to peeter off and the two will be fighting neck and neck once again. And, as kowenicki has already posted some great statistics, I will refrain from doing the same. All in all? I think that there is a potential for the PS3 to outsell the 360...but it'll take so long that it won't matter anymore. Both companies will have already achieved what they set out to do with their consoles.

Now, if I were to claim what actually came out of this generation except numbers? Nintendo proved they have aces up their sleeves in the market, Microsoft proved that they can create a fun and marketable console and Sony managed to introduce the Blu-Ray to the gaming market, learning what they need to make a console even better next time around. Oh, and a lot of pretty happy gamers.



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kowenicki said:
BHR-3 said:
numonex said:

http://gamer.blorge.com/2010/05/28/ps3-to-overtake-xbox-360-in-2-years/

Here is the article from gamer.blorge. 

Does anyone believe the PS3 can actually overtake the 360 within 2 years?

I personally have my doubts whether the PS3 can overtake the 360 this generation. Gran Turismo 5 is the PS3s last chance. The XBox 360s, Halo:Reach should be enough to offset Gran Turismo 5 sales impact.  I believe both PS Move and Kinect will have no real impact on the sales. The Wii has the casual  video game market wrapped up this generation. 

Three years time seems more likely when the PS3 overtakes the 360. MS knows how to get more out of the 360. 360 Slim launch was a brilliant move and the Kinect should extend the 360s life span to 10 years. PS3 may have to wait until 2013 or 2014 when it overtakes the 360 in total console sales.  

yes no problem the last shipment gap was 3.6M

no its not its still hasnt reached a $199 price and there are numerous AAA exclusives left

anyone that wants Reach already bought one sure it will have a HW bump do to LE console same cant be said for GT5, Agent, Last Guardian ect

Move does have some serious hardcore games supporting it so just because you think wii has the lock on casuals only means that a devise that appeals and offers games to the casuals only will suffer more

agreed bout the life span

id say it will take 2nd in 2011 or in the fiscal year of 2011 i also believe that PS3 will be the number one selling console in 2011 its SW lineup is insane and there will be a price cut for that will have the bigger impact than what nintendo or MS do with there prices next year

you should expect that gap to have increased in the next shipment numbers....

And you said all of this towards the end of last year....   

 

In terms of actual sales thru to customers:

For PS3 to overtake 360, PS3 will need to outsell 360 by:         
                 
1,355,891 per month to catch it by Jan '11 312,898 per week, on average every week.
338,973 per month to catch it by Jan '12 78,224 per week, on average every week.
193,699 per month to catch it by Jan '13 44,700 per week, on average every week.
135,589 per month to catch it by Jan '14 31,290 per week, on average every week.
                 
Current rates:               
                 
259,661 per month on average for the last 12 months. 1.74 yrs to catch at this rate May-12
165,361 per month on average for the last 9 months. 2.73 yrs to catch at this rate May-13
6,065 per month on average for the last 6 months. 67.70 yrs to catch at this rate Apr-77
-213,705 per month on average for the last 3 months. **** yrs to catch at this rate ****
                 


numbers.... pffft here is good old idle speculation http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=5338



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Michael-5 said:
evolution_1ne said:
Michael-5 said:

I think the only way PS3 will overtake 360 in overall sales is if PS4 comes out a year later then X-Box successor, and even then it's iffy.

In the 4 years since PS3's launch, PS3 sales have only been above 360 sales ocassionally during a big game release, and since the PS3 Slim. Now that the PS3's Slim effect has worn off, Microsoft has a temporary lead due to a slightly better fall lineup (Kinect > Move, Halo = GT5, Fable = LBP), and it's own Slim effect. In 2011, both Slim effects will have faded, and it will most likely be like it was before the PS3 slim effect. This isn't garenteed, but regardless Sony will be having a hard time just selling above the 360, nevermind catching up a potential 6 million console difference by the end of the year

and then Sony drops the price of the ps3 to 199.........

why oh why do people always seem to ignore the fact that the lowest selling ps3 sku is at 299, remember the ps3 during the time it slaughtered the 360 due to the price cut last year.......was STILL the most expensive console on the market....

PS3 outsold 360 last year because of a Slim redesign and a price cut to boost it. Now 360 is outselling the PS3 on an almost equal level with only a redesign and no price cut. A price cut to $200 would affect both consoles equally.

PS3 had many price cuts from it's initial $600 price tag, and only the only with the redesign pushed sales above 360 level. Why do you beleive, against the statistics, that a $100 price cut on both consoles with no redesign will favor PS3 more, when it hasn't in the past? If anything, wouldn't it favor the 360 more since the arcade model will be selling for $100-$130 US? At that price, the consoles costs the same as a couple new games, how many people can ignore that?

The 360 has been outselling the PS3 consistantly until last August due to the PS3 Slim redesign. Now Microsoft has balanced the scales with it's own Slim redesign, and it will remain the better selling console of the two for the remainder of the generation (outside a few weeks due to large PS3 game releases like GT5). Also Kinect may really push sales towards the 360, Move won't do much for PS3 at all.


so the 360 getting a price cut to a price it is already at and have been for the past 2.5 years will see the same if not bigger boost than the ps3 who has never been at the price point ever.....ok

and console redesigns  make bigger boost than price cuts...................... riiiiiight

you know the majority of the 360s boost came from a clearance of it's old models and selling to existing users right?



evolution_1ne said:


so the 360 getting a price cut to a price it is already at and have been for the pas3 2.5 years will see the same is not bigger boost than the ps3 who has never been at the price point ever.....ok

and console redesigns  make bigger boost than price cuts...................... riiiiiight

you know the majority of the 360s boost came from a clearance of it's old models and selling to existing users right?

Oh cool, you have the sales numbers?

I didn't realize they put out that information.



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Mr Puggsly said:
evolution_1ne said:


so the 360 getting a price cut to a price it is already at and have been for the pas3 2.5 years will see the same is not bigger boost than the ps3 who has never been at the price point ever.....ok

and console redesigns  make bigger boost than price cuts...................... riiiiiight

you know the majority of the 360s boost came from a clearance of it's old models and selling to existing users right?

Oh cool, you have the sales numbers?

I didn't realize they put out that information.

check 360 software during the time of the 360s launch and do the same for the ps3 during the time of it slim launch, to it's just logic to me........ the biggest boost in 360 since the launch of the arcade and the software stays completely flat...... but you are right though, my last statement= pure speculation

I mean because who knows, maybe Vgchartz untracked 360 software for that time, I mean according to this site 2 million Ps3's are in a ditch somewhere in Africa, which of course makes perfect sense to me. but maybe 360 software did see a noticeable boost, guess we'll never know huh?



evolution_1ne said:
Mr Puggsly said:
evolution_1ne said:


so the 360 getting a price cut to a price it is already at and have been for the pas3 2.5 years will see the same is not bigger boost than the ps3 who has never been at the price point ever.....ok

and console redesigns  make bigger boost than price cuts...................... riiiiiight

you know the majority of the 360s boost came from a clearance of it's old models and selling to existing users right?

Oh cool, you have the sales numbers?

I didn't realize they put out that information.

check 360 software during the time of the 360s launch and do the same for the ps3 during the time of it slim launch, to it's just logic to me........ the biggest boost in 360 since the launch of the arcade and the software stays completely flat...... but you are right though, my last statement= pure speculation

I mean because who knows, maybe Vgchartz untracked 360 software for that time, I mean according to this site 2 million Ps3's are in a ditch somewhere in Africa, which of course makes perfect sense to me. but maybe 360 software did see a noticeable boost, guess we'll never know huh?

Exactly, we'll never know.



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