Will the PS3 overtake the XBox 360 in 2 years?

[Michael-5]

reidlosdog said:

Michael-5 said:

evolution_1ne said:

Michael-5 said:

I think the only way PS3 will overtake 360 in overall sales is if PS4 comes out a year later then X-Box successor, and even then it's iffy.

In the 4 years since PS3's launch, PS3 sales have only been above 360 sales ocassionally during a big game release, and since the PS3 Slim. Now that the PS3's Slim effect has worn off, Microsoft has a temporary lead due to a slightly better fall lineup (Kinect > Move, Halo = GT5, Fable = LBP), and it's own Slim effect. In 2011, both Slim effects will have faded, and it will most likely be like it was before the PS3 slim effect. This isn't garenteed, but regardless Sony will be having a hard time just selling above the 360, nevermind catching up a potential 6 million console difference by the end of the year

and then Sony drops the price of the ps3 to 199.........

why oh why do people always seem to ignore the fact that the lowest selling ps3 sku is at 299, remember the ps3 during the time it slaughtered the 360 due to the price cut last year.......was STILL the most expensive console on the market....

PS3 outsold 360 last year because of a Slim redesign and a price cut to boost it. Now 360 is outselling the PS3 on an almost equal level with only a redesign and no price cut. A price cut to $200 would affect both consoles equally.

PS3 had many price cuts from it's initial $600 price tag, and only the only with the redesign pushed sales above 360 level. Why do you beleive, against the statistics, that a $100 price cut on both consoles with no redesign will favor PS3 more, when it hasn't in the past? If anything, wouldn't it favor the 360 more since the arcade model will be selling for $100-$130 US? At that price, the consoles costs the same as a couple new games, how many people can ignore that?

The 360 has been outselling the PS3 consistantly until last August due to the PS3 Slim redesign. Now Microsoft has balanced the scales with it's own Slim redesign, and it will remain the better selling console of the two for the remainder of the generation (outside a few weeks due to large PS3 game releases like GT5). Also Kinect may really push sales towards the 360, Move won't do much for PS3 at all.

Just going to say, GT might not be THAT much of a effect against console sales.  the Kinect bundle might really effect the sales of 360, seeing as Kinect already has 100,000 pre-orders on it.  That first week people who are open to motion controlling will show if Kinect has a "WOW" effect, and into december will see if it has that.  I say "WOW" effect, cause that's what every person that has actually tested the tech out has stated (other than harsh critics of the gaming industry), and that's how many casual gamers reacted when they played with Wii.

Wow I think I misread your older point because now I see your supporting 360 dominance.

Anyway, well I think I disagree on your next message. I think GT5 and Kinect both have the potential to encourage people to buy their respective console more then the other. GT5 will be huge in EMEAA (usually sells about twice as well there), and it will help keep EMEAA sales in favor of PS3. However, if Kinect really takes off then Americas sales may be in favor of the 360 2:1 (potentially). I know Kinect will take off, but I really doubt that this peripheral will steal future Wii sales. It has potential, but it's so hard to judge it's success.

Getting back onto PS3 outselling 360 in 2 year, it can't. Microsoft has a much stronger lineup this fall, and "the trump card" that pushed PS3 sales over 360 (The slim effect). A lot more attention is being placed on Microsoft this fall, GT5 cannot replicated Halo, Kinect, and the Slim Effect all on it's own.

So if PS3 were to outsell the 360, it would somehow have to sell 6 million more consoles from January 2011 until September 2012, and no thats not possible. Outselling the 360 without the Slim Effect has never been done on the PS3, and now you expect it to outsell the 360 by 6 million in less then 2 years? I see no reason for PS3 sales to jump after this fall, and I see no reason for 360 sales to drop.

At best case, PS3 outsells the 360 by a million units in 2011-2014. That reduces the initial lead that the 360 had, but doesn't put PS3 above 360. Thats the best chance PS3 has IMO, but even then, I just don't think PS3 will outsell the 360 after this fall. I think the difference will grow to 7 million, and it will only stop growing if Microsoft replaces the 360 a year before Sony replaces the PS3. Even then it would need more then a year to catch up as sales on both consoles will probably have dropped by then.