My local Supermarket has some Christmas Trees ....... Do you know what that mean kids? Yep, yu're right Holiday season is near and we can expect a lot of sales and crazy number in NA, so let's recap NPD's last two years numbers.

2008

TOTAL                          4,190,000              2,276,000             1,104,000       616,000           4.610,000          1.441,000

2009

TOTAL                              5,070,000            2,129,500          2,070,400              536,300           5,010,000           948,600

Well let's see.

DS

This holiday the system has Super Scribblenauts, Mario Vs Donkey, Art Academy, Golden Sun, Ghost Trick, plus alot of commercial titles like Zu Zu pets, Marvel, etc. With the decline of "serious" support from third parties (and the incoming 3DS) We could expect a drop in the sales, but evergreen titles and the few population in the world that doesn't have a DS could keep the numbers slighty aboce the 4 million mark.

PS3

This holidays they get GT 5, Move and its games (The Fight, Shoot, etc.), Little Big Planet 2, Sly Collection, plus third party games like CoD, Medal of Honor, Vanquish, Castlevania, etc. Move has a quite diverse selection of titles but seems like the hardware is more focused to gain new owners. One of the cons is tat the system requieres the camera, the wand and the system (for new owners that's a $400 system), another problem is the lack of a flagship title for Move. in my opinion the system'll get close to 3 million consoles this holiday or even a little more.

PSP

They get a good ammount of great games like Valkyria Chronicles II, Metal Gear, God of War the Ghost of Sparta and Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep. Third party support is limited to niche games (Ys 7, Knight in the Nightmare) or well know franchises. Honestly I don't see how the PSP can get a good holiday season, a price drop'll help but really not much. Without a pricedrop I'll put this at 700k to 900k, with a price drop probably over a million.

XBOX360

They have Kinect, Halo Reach, Fable III and third party support from Cod, Medal of Honor, etc. In paper they have the strong position for this holiday, the Kinect Bundle is 100 cheaper than the Move bundle so that could help them to get new costumers, some of he games are really marketable for wide audiences (Kinectimals, Dance Central) so in theory I can imagine a 4 million holiday for XBOX360, but that would depend a lot in the marteking strategy for the system.

Wii

They have Donkey Kong Country Returs, Kirby Epic Yarn, Epic Mickey, Goldeneye, Just Dance 2, Wii Party among other (NBA Jam, UDraw) this year Wii lineup is way better than the 2 last years so that could help with the existent owners, Wii still has the advantage of being the cheapest console in the market, so that could help with the new owners, but I don't think they'll keep the numbers of last year. I can see the Wii in something between 3 and 4 million sales.

Well I'll just look at PS3 and 360, because those are the 2 I am most interested in

PS3:
I really don't think Move is going to push very much hardware, and with GT 5 it will see similar levels to last year, but without a price cut, it won't see a significant bumb, so I would guess 2.5m as opposed to 2m last year. 3D might also help shift a handful of consoles (I mean a handful not a lot)

360: 
Kinect will shift a few consoles, as will Halo, but I feel they will mostly be repeat buyers though that of course has no impact on the hardware sales other than to boost them! I think with good marketing, they can get to around 3m assuming Kinect does some good

i cant see ps3 having better sales then last year. Pricecut plus remodel>GT5/move in terms of pushing consoles. 360 will be interesting because it might just be the only console that grows year to year, due to the success the remodeled 360 has been, and a stronger then usual holiday lineup. Maybe it will reach 3-3.5mil? I think the ds and wii will take pretty big drops but they should still be ahead of ether of the hd twins. The ps3 comment is for NPD. I believe it will have a better year in Europe year to year this year.

I don't think move is going to push that hardware either.

Wii, down both months significantly* (unless there is a lasting price cut)

Xbox 360, best console in November due to Kinect and Black Friday deals

PS3 down a lot, not so much in Nov though thanks to GT5.

PS2 down a lot obviously, last xmas season.

NDS, down a bit, but still high.

PSP, again down a fair bit.

These will probably turn out wrong but it's a rush guesstimate!

Xbox 360,best in November due to kinect. I don't know about that. We'll see soon enough. lol

With Microsoft not cutting the price of the X360 ( 3rd Xmas at $199 base price thank you) and the higher than expected price on Kinect, the Xbox 360 is in the best position for retailers, to do special deals. BF will be HUGE.

Nice thread and analysis.

DS - I think with the price drop in September it will help, but with no real big titles (was expecting Pokemon Black/White) and the impending release (if it hasn't released already) of the 3DS I think it will see a big drop, but still very strong to 3.8 million for the two months.

PSP - Seems to really be struggling in America this year. Seems like some good games coming out but not necessarily big hardware movers. So without a price cut I think 650,000, with at least a $50 cut I think it will almost match last year's sales.

Wii - Will definitely be down from last year, but it will depend on the marketing strategy by how much. If they do some of their own Black Friday bundles, and make a few other moves such as a Wii Fit price cut, players choice line etc. than along with a strong line up I could see sales of 4.2 million. If they are not agressive and just depend on their game line up I say more around 3.8 million.

PS3- I just read a statement saying that Sony is not expecting a big initial response to Move and are more depending on word of mouth and legs. Also I don't think GT5 will have the impact in US as in the other regions. I think this year Sony is just going to enjoy the big strides they have made with the PS3 and not be too aggresive to get sales, but instead just be profitable. I'm sure they will have some clever Black Friday bundles again though. I see sales just a bit short of last year, I'll say 1.8 million.

360 - I think Kinect is going to be big in the US and I think Microsoft is going to market it very well this holiday. That along with a strong line up (even if most exclusives have already seen iterations on the console) and the continued momentum makes me think it will be the only console up this holiday in the US. I think they are going to see a big increase from last year up to 3 million.

Note: I think if the 3DS launches this year it will have a large negative effect on Nintendo's consoles because they won't receive as much promotion. I could also see it having a smaller impact on the 360, as I think it might dampen Kinnect's appeal as "the next big thing". I also think it would hurt the PSP, as the PSP would no longer have the appeal of being the most powerful handheld. So if it does release I wold adjust all 4 consoles down accordingly, thinking only the PS3 would go uneffected by it.

Are the #'s in the opening post for Worldwide or America only? Are we predicting for Worldwide or America only?

I really don't see PS3 doing as well this year in NA (while in EU it will surpass last year)

1.7 Million for PS3

It will go to 3 Million in 2011 holidays though at $199