Nice thread and analysis.
DS - I think with the price drop in September it will help, but with no real big titles (was expecting Pokemon Black/White) and the impending release (if it hasn't released already) of the 3DS I think it will see a big drop, but still very strong to 3.8 million for the two months.
PSP - Seems to really be struggling in America this year. Seems like some good games coming out but not necessarily big hardware movers. So without a price cut I think 650,000, with at least a $50 cut I think it will almost match last year's sales.
Wii - Will definitely be down from last year, but it will depend on the marketing strategy by how much. If they do some of their own Black Friday bundles, and make a few other moves such as a Wii Fit price cut, players choice line etc. than along with a strong line up I could see sales of 4.2 million. If they are not agressive and just depend on their game line up I say more around 3.8 million.
PS3- I just read a statement saying that Sony is not expecting a big initial response to Move and are more depending on word of mouth and legs. Also I don't think GT5 will have the impact in US as in the other regions. I think this year Sony is just going to enjoy the big strides they have made with the PS3 and not be too aggresive to get sales, but instead just be profitable. I'm sure they will have some clever Black Friday bundles again though. I see sales just a bit short of last year, I'll say 1.8 million.
360 - I think Kinect is going to be big in the US and I think Microsoft is going to market it very well this holiday. That along with a strong line up (even if most exclusives have already seen iterations on the console) and the continued momentum makes me think it will be the only console up this holiday in the US. I think they are going to see a big increase from last year up to 3 million.
Note: I think if the 3DS launches this year it will have a large negative effect on Nintendo's consoles because they won't receive as much promotion. I could also see it having a smaller impact on the 360, as I think it might dampen Kinnect's appeal as "the next big thing". I also think it would hurt the PSP, as the PSP would no longer have the appeal of being the most powerful handheld. So if it does release I wold adjust all 4 consoles down accordingly, thinking only the PS3 would go uneffected by it.
