Yes, I am comparing them because both were outlandish claims and neither one has come true. Yet JL is getting piled on by rabid animals yet that stupid R&C prediction goes by without anyone blinking and even seems to be getting excused because "it wasn't as outlandish as his!!" I'm sorry but no.

And who cares if stickball isn't put on a pedestal for his predictions? Is that what people are here for? Popularity? This is exactly why IGN sucked, it was nothing but people whining about attention, and whining because they weren't getting enough attention, or whining because someone was getting too much attention. JL didn't ask for his "fans," they simply declared themselves as that and follow his posts. Taking it out on him because he has a fanbase is dumb. If you're going to go berserk over his predictions getting attention then why is nothing being dumb by trolling clowns like hunter_alien hiding in the corners while occsionally screaming about how he needs to be "put in his place?" Judging by this thread, he has just as many secret haters as fanboys, and most of them seem to be on the lower end of the spectrum, attacking him just because his predictios are about Nintendo.

If anything I've gained more respect for JL from this thread, you people have gone batshit insane and he's living it down, taking it in stride as more and more of you freaks pile on him in an attempt to accomplish...whatever it is you're trying to accomplish. 

 I'm not so stupid as to think that the Wii wouldn't sell more with a bigger supply, it's the size of the demand thats been the subject to much scrutiny lately, by me among others. And, like everyone can agree; its hard to know whether the Wii has been 5 million or 50 million short this year since there are few ways of actually determining demand correctly. This is why major manufacturers are so careful to ramp up production dramatically.

The DS is an entirely different product with a different pricetag and is a very different experience alltogether, so it proves very little in regards to peoples habits towards a stationary console. The various Gameboy incarnations did well despite both the N64 and GC flopping, so there's no merit in this comparison imo. 

The PS2 was embraced by casuals AND gamers, but it had no sales year that really "took off" like you seem to think the Wii will, and the pricetag of that is significantly lower than the Wii in any case, which is a major factor for casuals. 

I don't normally get into these kind of arguments but I'm getting sick and tired of them because they're going in circles and look like there's no end to them. This is basically a tweaked "the Wii is a fad!" argument, and like Sony domination theories, the further from the truth they appear with in time, the further back the destined "date" is pushed, when all will come true. But in truth, it will never happen.

The Wii is a game console. It's not a fad, or a fashion accessory, or any nonsense like that. I'm sure there's a few rich whores that burned money on it because they could, but they are far from the majority, because the Wii is a game console. And game consoles play games. So what I don't understand is how a healthy install base, growing third party support, and hotly anticipated games for 2008 is supposed to lead to Wii demand dying out in the blink of an eye when 360 is only popular in one region and PS3 wishes it had a fraction of the demand anywhere. So why is the Wii, the only one that has it down, the one in danger of flickering out, especially when it's doing everything a game console needs to do be successful? I don't remember anyone talking about how PS2 was magically going to die in 2003, because 100M+ PS2s sold damn sure weren't to "hardcore" gamers.

I also don't get how Nintendo is "excluding" gamers by being the only console offering up a purely gaming experience. I didn't buy a PS2 because it played DVD movies, and if I buy a PS3 it will NOT be for blu-ray playback. 

3 and a half million. Im not going to read the whole thread here, but in case noone mentioned it yet, Wiifit had an original retail shipment of 300,000 units for its launch. It was tracked for 2 days since it released on the weekend and not the normal launch day of Thursday in Japan so all we got was 2 days worth of sales. It was an impossibility for the game to sell 3.5 million on a shipment of 300,000. It was later reported the initial shipment sold out early this week and a new shipment was right on its heels to retailers.

I've never said a word about Sony domination or any other kind of domination, but you automatically assume that that's my theory. I'm a crossplatform gamer, which is why I don't like the Wii, it simply does not appeal to me, and the same is true about all my gamer friends (especially PC users). I'm trying to clarify why people can believe that the Wii will sell HALF A BILLION units, that's what this is about!

Many Vgchartz users acredit the Wii with near Godlike power, and they claim it will do things that go against every single console generation trend in history, why is it so strange that those who don't buy into that start to scratch their heads and stare blankly?

It's been said all along that the Wii is targeted at casuals, and they're not a very longterm safe demographic. Is is suddenly not targeted at casuals now? People are veering back and forth about this "hardcore" and "casual", I can't seem to keep up with it.

When casuals buy a cellphone, what's important?

1: Price.

2: Looks.

3: Functions.

4: The fact that they won't keep it long because a cooler one is bound to come soon.

This is how the casual consumer thinks, how do you net them and then keep them interested in the same product for years? This is why most console makers aim at gamers mostly, and not casuals. Of course, most people know this, but it becomes invalid when applied against the allmighty Wii, somehow. Short and intense bursts of sales is the main description of casual markets with electronics whenever a new product comes out, so to picture the Wii sales slowing down (I've never ever said that it would stop selling completely over night, that's your words, not mine) is not difficult for me.

Like I've stated, we won't agree in this, we're too different. Apparently you agree with Avinash, so this there's no use for me to try and convince you of anything. Allthough, I find it odd that you have contrary beliefs on whether or not the PS2 was/is bought by casuals...

@Avinash: Do you happen to know just how many casuals bought the PS2, or are you assuming that what "I seem to believe" is faulty by my nature of not supporting other claims? We could go on for ages, state examples and counter arguments all day and night, but I don't see the point, really.

And for the last time on Vgchartz for all to see: NO, I am NOT a Nintendo hater! I grew up with Nintendo and I've owned hundreds of Nintendo games and all their consoles up to the GC, I simply view myself as a realist, is all.

I think you're merely using faulty logic to try and back up your assumption, where hs it been shown that casula/nongamers are not reliable demographic, they've never been hooked before the DS and Wii.

Wii is not a cellphone, nor is it likely that those causals, nongamers will move onto something like PS3 or 360, they didn't buy the predecessors to those two systems.

I got a NES for christmas in 1989 I think, but it debuted in 84 or 85, right? 70 million seems like such a smal number, every single friend had one!
Another factor would be economy, late eighties saw an increase in consumers' ability to purchase, which was bound to benefit the PS when it came out a few years later.

My point about casual buyers/consumers is that most of their possessions matter little to them since it's not a wholehearted interest on their account, so they tire easily. This is why cellphone makers, clothes designers and other manufacturers have to update or relieve their products with new models/versions all the time.
And casuals tire most of all of things that do only one thing, especially in electronics. When the first MP3 playback stereo sets became affordable, sales practically exploded, the same is true with TV's sporting features such as i-in-i. Casuals love products that handle multiple tasks, so for most of them a 360 or a PS3 would probably also be cool for a while (perhaps several months...), but the prices are too steep and the hardware itself has a "geek" status in the market somehow, so the only affordable console left would be the Wii.

I see lifetime sales of approx 90-95 million for the Wii, which is nowhere near a fad as many claim, but my experience is that the casual market saturates and tires very quickly, and I fear this can be Nintendo's undoing (not really undoing, they'll still do great, but not by the standards and expectation of many posters here).
It's more than likely that the Wii will "win" this gen, but not so much that it'll sell 250-500 million.

I also believe that Sony will take "2nd place" this gen, which is fine by any standards given the high price and steep competition.
The 360? I have little faith in that product tbh, as did I in the X-box.

 This is very true.  In fact, I can think of at least one manufacturer that's been relying on this technique for sales.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.  It won't happen again.

ClaudeLv250 said: hunter_alien said: Gnizmo said: hunter_alien said: johnlucas said: nordlead said: you people can't hang john lucas yet. It released the 1st, the sales data is only for the 1st. He still has 6 days left for 1 week to actually pass. He did state specifically that it was 1 real week, not 1 sales week. so it only needs to sell 3.5 million in 6 days That's right. Besides the prediction in full was about Wii Fit worldwide all 1st weeks combined. I simply specified Japan accounting for the staggered launch. Even if Japan fails on me the prediction is still on until Wii Fit releases in all territories. I'll only be eating a couple of black feathers instead of the whole bird. Prediction is still on. John Lucas Keep on dreaming ... it will never do as much as H3 did in the US in first week , and it deffinatly wont have a massive launch week in Others ... the game is IMO partially a flop ... only time will tell how much can its legs drag the game ... lets dont forget , it could be the next Nintendogs in the same time :) Can you justify that claim on any real level or are you just spouting more fanboy nonsense? How on earth did this game flop? It only sold 90% of the stock in two days. What a huge dissapontment! I am certain Nintendo regrets making so many of these units with that terrible sell rate! I guess you are just looking forward to the future. We all know these types of games are notorious for selling in quick bursts and then disappearing from the charts forever, especially in Japan. What would make it not a flop next week? Does it have to sell every last unit to be a success, or do you just want the Wii to fail? At this point a huge Nintendo 1st party game is considered to be successfull if , an only it selles over 500k IMO ... SMG was not a flop in the US , but than it was in Japan . Yes , I know that it can have legs , but in the same time it could have similar to MP3 , and thats not good IMO . When a gamelike Prof. Layton beats a monster like WiiFit in Japan , than you know that there is something wrong with the sales number .   On the other hand I never saied that it couldent be a smash hit in the US or Others , or it couldent be a hit later on in Japan , but as it stands now , WiiFit didnt do far as well as people expected ... You're a troll, but the worst part is that you're not even good at it. You cannot magically redefine what a flop is to fit your fanboy preferences, being a Nintendo game doesn't set up this physical 500k barrier that must be broken. Saying that Wii Fit flopped when it almost sold through 90% in its first two days is simply moronic. It is not in your opinion, it's in your stupid-as-hell, barely-fit-to-be-called-an-opinion claim. And it will not be entertain. Be quiet. And to pretend like getting outsold by Layton, which is a monster itself, is somehow a bad thing? Nice try, punk. Ans clinging to the idea that SMG was flop in Japan? Damn, you must be pretty desperate.

 Layton a monster ... uhhh , maybe afther the release of the sequel , but not sooner . Untill two weeks ago , no gamer could have dreemed about it selling as well as it did . And dont get me wrong , but comparing Wii Fit or SMG to a game like New Super Mario Brothers ( wich did 910k in its opening week ) both games can be called dissapointing saleswise . Also , lets dont forget that SMG and Wii Fit had probably much higher development costs , while NSMB is a plain , simple sidescrooler , wich allready sold over 11 million copys . 

But if you would have taken the time and read my comment carefully , I stated clearly that the game could do batter , just like SMG did in the US . The best example is Nintendogs , a game that had a good start in Japan as a new IP ( 170k ) and sold overall more than 15 million copys .  

To make your read a bit faster I just bolded those parts in my comment , so please take your time , read again , and other times try and post with less offensive text next time , because if you didnt observed you to had become a troll ...