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Mummelmann on 07 December 2007
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ClaudeLv250 said:

Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Well the problem with running numbers on the Wii is no one really knows the upper limits of its demand, since supply has never really been able to outstrip demand in all regions at once. You could argue based on supply, but do you really know whether Nintendo has reached the limits of production, in the long run all factors are variable, while 40 million next year may be out of reach due to supply constraints, saying 240 million is laughable in its lifetime is foolishness on Stickball's part as he can only guess at the maximum demand and supply for the Wii.

This is kinda funny, I used that very argument in a discussion we had in another thread, about how it's near impossible to determine the exact demand for the Wii. You called me ignorant and brushed it off as nonsense that time, why is it valid now? Feel free to support any prediction, but stay consistent will you?


There is no inconsistency, your argument was that it would experience a dropoff and that sales would suddenly drop and it would die out, sorry, but that is totally unsupported, the only question is how high the sales can go, that is where the numbers are hard to judge, we already know its higher than the PS2 due to the fact that its selling twice as fast, even with the supply constraints, but could it sell three, or even four or even more times faster if supply wasn't an issue, that is the question


I mentioned this supply issue in regards to the belief that the Wii will somehow double, or even triple its sales in the next year and forwards. That was imo a just question; how do you (or Nintendo) know that the demand is of such a degree that they can in fact double or triple sales? That was what my initial puzzlement encased, but this was apparently a very silly notion of me to have, since I was "ignorant" for doubting that the demand actually was that high.

As for my belief that it will drop off and slow down (even grind to a halt); yes, I believe that still. The Wii is/was an explosion, erupting on the market like TNT, and these things have a way of dying down as casual consumers are a fiercely illoyal group that are easily swayed in other directions and quickly tire of trends. I see the Wii as more of a fashion accessory right now than its competitors, which is a good thing short term but rarely long term.

Gamers are a lot fewer as a demographic, but they are very aware and set aside much larger funds for gaming and entertainment (gamers tend to visit the cinema almost 400% more than "casuals" for instance) and they're a more dedicated and predictable group that leave room for longterm strategizing. They are also the sole reason the console industry has grown into the financial beast it is, so excluding gamers from your demographic with a games console with no other media capability seems like a strange strategy to me!

Anyways; I know that neither of us are gonna convince the other, or convert if you will, we won't know anymore till the scales tilt heavily one way or the other longterm. I know it looks like the Wii will break all manner of records right now, but I firmly believe that the fluxing market of todays world and the ever sheepish and flinching casuals can cut Nintendo's tethers in the market a couple of years down the line.

I don't normally get into these kind of arguments but I'm getting sick and tired of them because they're going in circles and look like there's no end to them. This is basically a tweaked "the Wii is a fad!" argument, and like Sony domination theories, the further from the truth they appear with in time, the further back the destined "date" is pushed, when all will come true. But in truth, it will never happen.

The Wii is a game console. It's not a fad, or a fashion accessory, or any nonsense like that. I'm sure there's a few rich whores that burned money on it because they could, but they are far from the majority, because the Wii is a game console. And game consoles play games. So what I don't understand is how a healthy install base, growing third party support, and hotly anticipated games for 2008 is supposed to lead to Wii demand dying out in the blink of an eye when 360 is only popular in one region and PS3 wishes it had a fraction of the demand anywhere. So why is the Wii, the only one that has it down, the one in danger of flickering out, especially when it's doing everything a game console needs to do be successful? I don't remember anyone talking about how PS2 was magically going to die in 2003, because 100M+ PS2s sold damn sure weren't to "hardcore" gamers.

I also don't get how Nintendo is "excluding" gamers by being the only console offering up a purely gaming experience. I didn't buy a PS2 because it played DVD movies, and if I buy a PS3 it will NOT be for blu-ray playback.


I've never said a word about Sony domination or any other kind of domination, but you automatically assume that that's my theory. I'm a crossplatform gamer, which is why I don't like the Wii, it simply does not appeal to me, and the same is true about all my gamer friends (especially PC users). I'm trying to clarify why people can believe that the Wii will sell HALF A BILLION units, that's what this is about!

Many Vgchartz users acredit the Wii with near Godlike power, and they claim it will do things that go against every single console generation trend in history, why is it so strange that those who don't buy into that start to scratch their heads and stare blankly?

It's been said all along that the Wii is targeted at casuals, and they're not a very longterm safe demographic. Is is suddenly not targeted at casuals now? People are veering back and forth about this "hardcore" and "casual", I can't seem to keep up with it.

When casuals buy a cellphone, what's important?

1: Price.

2: Looks.

3: Functions.

4: The fact that they won't keep it long because a cooler one is bound to come soon.

This is how the casual consumer thinks, how do you net them and then keep them interested in the same product for years? This is why most console makers aim at gamers mostly, and not casuals. Of course, most people know this, but it becomes invalid when applied against the allmighty Wii, somehow. Short and intense bursts of sales is the main description of casual markets with electronics whenever a new product comes out, so to picture the Wii sales slowing down (I've never ever said that it would stop selling completely over night, that's your words, not mine) is not difficult for me.

Like I've stated, we won't agree in this, we're too different. Apparently you agree with Avinash, so this there's no use for me to try and convince you of anything. Allthough, I find it odd that you have contrary beliefs on whether or not the PS2 was/is bought by casuals...

@Avinash: Do you happen to know just how many casuals bought the PS2, or are you assuming that what "I seem to believe" is faulty by my nature of not supporting other claims? We could go on for ages, state examples and counter arguments all day and night, but I don't see the point, really.

And for the last time on Vgchartz for all to see: NO, I am NOT a Nintendo hater! I grew up with Nintendo and I've owned hundreds of Nintendo games and all their consoles up to the GC, I simply view myself as a realist, is all.