| Avinash_Tyagi said: I mentioned this supply issue in regards to the belief that the Wii will somehow double, or even triple its sales in the next year and forwards. That was imo a just question; how do you (or Nintendo) know that the demand is of such a degree that they can in fact double or triple sales? That was what my initial puzzlement encased, but this was apparently a very silly notion of me to have, since I was "ignorant" for doubting that the demand actually was that high. PS2's second year sales were only a little over 17 Million, Wii will get pretty much that this year even with the supply constraint, what evidence is there that it couldn't sell more if supply was there. As for my belief that it will drop off and slow down (even grind to a halt); yes, I believe that still. The Wii is/was an explosion, erupting on the market like TNT, and these things have a way of dying down as casual consumers are a fiercely illoyal group that are easily swayed in other directions and quickly tire of trends. I see the Wii as more of a fashion accessory right now than its competitors, which is a good thing short term but rarely long term. DS already shows that casuals continue to buy games, maybe not as often, but they don't abandon like you believe they do |
I'm not so stupid as to think that the Wii wouldn't sell more with a bigger supply, it's the size of the demand thats been the subject to much scrutiny lately, by me among others. And, like everyone can agree; its hard to know whether the Wii has been 5 million or 50 million short this year since there are few ways of actually determining demand correctly. This is why major manufacturers are so careful to ramp up production dramatically.
The DS is an entirely different product with a different pricetag and is a very different experience alltogether, so it proves very little in regards to peoples habits towards a stationary console. The various Gameboy incarnations did well despite both the N64 and GC flopping, so there's no merit in this comparison imo.
The PS2 was embraced by casuals AND gamers, but it had no sales year that really "took off" like you seem to think the Wii will, and the pricetag of that is significantly lower than the Wii in any case, which is a major factor for casuals.
