No for GT5 its already a given

Ya in like 2 years.

The words "long shot" usually means close to impossible

How is it a given? If PS4 kills PS3 software sales, or GT5's sales start slowing down, it won't break 10 million. It's still got 1.6 million to go after this year is over, it's not a garentee without bundles.

It's incredibly likely that GT5 is undertracked here, considering it had shipped almost 9.2 million units at the end of September. By end of March 2013, it's quite possible shipments will have surpassed 10 million and if there was excess inventory around, it'd eventually be sold for buttons to ensure it's moved.

Shipped eventually=sold and shipments are currently only 800k short. And it shipped 1.8 million in the first 9 months of this year.

GTA4 is ~550k off the target. It will hit 10 Million next Year.

GTA5 will hit it relatively easily. Will do CoD-like numbers.

GT5 will have hit the number by this time next Year, if not sooner. Its quite clearly undertracked on VGChartz and had shipped 9.2 Million units in SEPTEMBER.

Oh it really shipped that many units this year? I knew it sold over a million according to VGC, but 2 million shipped is quite a bit.

Still 1 million to go, with PS4 just around the corner, there is still a chance GT5 won't break 10 million. Kudos though to Polyphony. I wonder, if there was a Gran Turismo 6 on PS3, would GT5 have done anywhere nearly as well?

That may or might not happen. A lot of games released now either sell less then their prequels or will likely sell less then their prequels (e.g. Halo 4/Reach won't get Halo 3 numbers, Super Mario Galaxy 2 came nowhere close to Galaxy 1's numbers, Black Ops 2 will likely fall short of Modern Warfare 3, etc).

The market is quite saturated with games after a 7 year generation, but it has been nearly 4 years since GTAIV? It could sell as well as GTA IV, maybe even faster too, but I doubt it with the PS4 coming soon and the market so saturated.

But you never know, while I was spot on right in believing GT5 won't sell 9 million units by the end of 2012, it will likely break 10 million, which I was wrong about. GTA V could have crazy legs in 3 years, like GTA:SA, you never know.

I think saturation can be attributed to CoD and SMG.

GTA is a franchise that sells better with a larger userbase. Its a casual game really. Even when next gen launches GTA will sell like crazy... I think all you have to do is look at the difference in userbase.

When GTA4 launched the PS3 was sitting at 12 Million consoles.
When GTA5 launches the PS3 will be sitting at what, ~74 Million?

62 Million more PS3s on the market. Not as many will be picking up 2nd hand...

Wouldnt be surprised to see it push 10M in 2013 alone. Yep. I said it