I totally disagree with the OP in the aspect that Nintendo has guaranteed themselves next generation. Now in regards to handhelds....That is essentially a Nintendo only market. (Even though the PSP has had awesome technology behind it, they just aren't appealing the right markets with it.).
I firmly stand by my opinion that this generation has been decided primarily by the extreme pricing differences of the consoles. Once momentum hits, it's incredibly hard for competitors to stop it. Word of mouth spreads, friends all own console X and people as a whole are sheep and/or want to play with friends.
I also disagree with the notion that Nintendo 'got back to it's roots' this generation. As others have mentioned in the past there aren't tons of games that Nintendo has sold gangbusters that were 'back to their roots', that they haven't pushed out in the N64/Gamecube generations.
As a matter of fact, this whole 'Nintendo is going back to it's roots' notion is derived 100% from the fact that the Wii is selling well. This assumption is based on the premise that Nintendo was just a golden standard that no one could touch. When the true reality of the situation is, NES/SNES were the only good selling video game consoles Nintendo produced prior to the disasters (Sales wise) that the N64/Gamecube were. If you look at it, prior to the Wii Nintendo had more of a 50/50 ratio when it comes to consoles. Half Good/Half Bad.
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When the Xbox 360 arrived on the market, it was met with some slight initial resistance IMO. Some people were curious to try it (First new console to hit the market) but $400 price tag was pretty steep. But I think a larger portion of people were curious to see the new Nintendo console (Old faithful video game system) or the Playstation's newest version (The biggest gaming machine for the past 15 years or so).
Around midway through 2006 we learn that the PS3 is hitting the market at $600 (A full $200 higher than it's next closest competitor and $350 dollars higher than it's lowest competitor). We learn a little later that year that the Nintendo Wii will be hitting shelves at $250. We also find out that Wii games are all going to be $10 cheaper than 360/PS3 games. The Wii will have an online interface and a classic games store for cheap games to purchase and lastly it was going to come packaged WITH a game too.
To me this was a big factor from day one. Never before have I witnessed SUCH a price disparity between consoles. Even in past generations, certain consoles were more or less expensive than others but nothing to the degree we witnessed during this generation.
If you were a fan of HD waiting for Sony this caused a three way reaction :
A.) Screw Sony, I'm getting a 360 it's close enough and a lot cheaper.
B.) I'm going to have to hunker down and wait till I can afford the PS3 but I am going to get it.
C.) I really want a PS3, but I can't afford that till the price comes down...I am going to go grab a Wii (They are different and seem fun).
And while considering the price the PS3 still sold a remarkable amount IMO (at 600$)....It was obvious that momentum leaned towards Nintendo/MS at this juncture. 2007 was a huge year for the 360 in terms of sales and software.
The Wii found an immediate amount of popularity at this juncture because it had several things going in it's favor. It was dirt cheap, it's games were dirt cheap. Anyone could run out and afford a Wii. It had the nostalgic Nintendo name. It seemingly had all the features the other consoles did. And lastly, it provided a different experience than it's competitors provided from day one at a lower entry point.
The price difference just can't be understated. You could literally purchase TWO full-fledged Wii's for the price of one gimpy low priced PS3. Parents buying Wii's for their kids. College kids looking for a system to pickup and play. The Wii fit into the perfect price range of all varieties of people. The PS3/360 sat well out of that range. Ofcourse, the Wii releasing with a surprisingly fun title in "Wii Sports" just aided word of mouth and the overwhelming spread that this does.
People on here sometimes wonder how the Wii can sell peripherals like it does. How many Balance boards sold again? It's simple to see why. The people buying these peripherals spent no more than $250 initially on their Wii. Where as comparatively, I got a $600 PS3 and subsequently a PS3 Slim (300$) since that broke. Even if they've spent over 1000$ on Wii peripherals the general opinion will be that they haven't spent much on the system because they've been nickel and dimed.
Where does Microsoft fall in all of this? They have been trying to clean up the scraps and bringing more people into their web to show them that their system is pretty awesome. They've produced a system that competes with the PS3 in almost every way and shares 90% of it's library with the PS3. It has maintained a $200 price advantage and a year head start on the PS3 since day one and even still maintains a $150 price point advantage. The only reason that the 360/PS3 is even nearly as close as it has been IMHO is (RROD,Somewhat comparable pricing to PS3, PS3's stellar first party offerings this gen). This has allowed them to forge a much larger group of fans (Worldwide) than ever before.
As for Sony? Sony has to sit there thinking "What could have been?". They did this to themselves and while have finally realized the gameplan necessary for victory/being competitive it may be just too late to change much this generation for themselves. While I firmly believe that they can surpass the Xbox 360, that even seems somewhat further-fetched. They have left themselves virtually 0% chance to catch the Wii or ever compete against it. Sony was a victim of their own success in many ways. They felt everyone would jump through hoops for a Sony product. (Even $600 hoops). This permanently shaped their position this generation.
What is very interesting to me in regard to Sony though, is you can certainly see the strong connection with Sony from fans as it hits the $300 price point. This is the residue of having what 150 million consoles the previous generation Worldwide? The PS3 still sits at $50 higher than the Nintendo Wii did upon release several years ago. That should speak volumes as to how much price affected this generation. Now that prices are getting to a comparable level across the three systems we are seeing more clear results. The problem therein lies in the fact that, at 72.5 million consoles the PS3/360 have no chance of surmounting this generation.
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I just don't believe Nintendo will be able to win the next generation unless their competitors play the price game very poorly. (Which while admittedly is a possibility) I just don't see it happening again. And I don't see how the 'Nintendo flavor' is evident in this Wii generation? I think Nintendo went further away from their comfort zone in this Wii generation than ever before. This could be good or it could be bad.
Catching lightning in a bottle is tough enough as is.....Catching it twice is well....?
