Does anyone think the DS will get a price cut soon? It's been at $129.99 for awhile now (not sure about pricing elsewhere).

Maybe they should make a Wii and DS bundle or something. That could sell like mad.

Anything could happen.

Well, probably not a Wii price drop. But other than that...

Microsoft has been ridiculously stingy with its price cuts so far, but that could be because they were holding back for a major initiative this year. I'd say another $50 drop is likely in 2008, and quite possibly more.

Sony is now down to the level I thought they would be at by the end of the year, and I really have no idea where they'll go from here. I can't imagine they can afford another drop anytime soon, but a move from Microsoft might force their hand. If they're doing a lot better sales-wise next year, though, it might not be necessary. It wouldn't surprise me to not see another price drop until 2009, but some better bundles are likely.

I actually think Wii will get a price cut in Japan first, since PS3 is relatively cheap there ($510/$420 at launch - cheaper now), and Wii is relatively expensive in Japan ($220 at launch with no pack in game).

So I'd guess...

Wii price drop (Japan): March 08' (for Mario Kart?)

360/PS3 price drop (west): Spring 08' (GTA IV)

We don't really know enough about release dates after Spring to accurately predict monthly sales. 

I thought Microsoft would do a Christmas cut but it seems to not be materializing. So, now I don't think they will do one until next fall. But it will put them to the $199 mass market price point for the premium just in time for Banjo 3, Gears 2, and Fable 2.

It seems like Microsoft is being careful about price cuts so that they don't de-value the product. Sony, is not doing themselves favors by price cutting and changing SKUs so much. Nintendo won't cut price until demand slows. When the Wii does price cut that will be the end of the PS2 because the cut will probably be significant.

The 360 is probably getting a price cut pretty quick next year. I imagine they'll first see how strong sales will be after the holidays, and go for a cut as soon as they don't like what they see. I have a feeling it might be very soon, although surprisingly good numbers might make them wait for or after GTA4.

The Wii will probably get a price cut first in Japan, as that's the weakest market at the moment. Probably early next year, unless Wii Fit really gets things going again. Don't think any kind of cut will be necessary in the US or Europe for at least the first half of the year.

I don't see the PS3 getting a price cut before Q3 08 at the very earliest, and probably 09. They were losing record amounts of money already, and then cut the price by $200 in a very short time. Sony is not a gaming company, and they're going to try and make money with the PS3, as hard as it's going to be.

No the DS is the best selling system week after week month after month.  60 millions!!  And when it does start slowing down or psp price drops they will release DS v3 at $99.

The only relevant question is this. How dedicated is Microsoft to busting Sony out of the market. When I say bust I mean literally force Sony out of the next gen console market. Given the past year, and everything that Sony has been forced to do just to hang in. Well its not rocket science Microsoft and Nintendo have Sony on the ropes a few well placed strikes away from a knock out.

We can debate financing, and honestly I think Microsoft has far more room to lower prices then Sony. Strategically a major price cut is also essential for their long term plans. First it could give them the leverage they need to force Sony out of at least two markets. A two hundred dollar console is just that consumer friendly if they could get their low end unit down that far. They take too long, and Sony could survive this generation. Right now that has to be a goal for Microsoft. Secure prominence for their brand in the market place. A failed console demolishes consumer confidence.

Second they do need to force Nintendo to compete, or to at least not allow them a gushing river of profits. Not if they plan to be an even stronger market force next generation. Replacing Sony with Nintendo is just exchanging one problem for another. They need to increase the pace of their sales so as to generate some parity with Nintendo. They cannot sell thirty million consoles, and let Nintendo sell over a hundred million.

Strategically there is a lot of impetus for Microsoft to produce a major price push early next year. They could use it to increase financial pressure on their competitors. Might allow them to off one of their competitors, and could lead to a far stronger showing this generation. Had the generation run a little different up to this point there would be an argument for conservative economics, but thanks to how poorly Sony has performed there are opportunities there ripe for the picking.

Once again the only question is how badly does Microsoft want the prize. Making more money in the short term is good. Securing more money in the long term is better. Even so Microsoft could probably swing such price cuts given that they are farther along in the manufacturing curve, and have held off on making large financial concessions to the market. Sony probably couldn't follow them with another price slash. They have basically gambled it all this year. They cut prices by a third, have had to include free games and movies, and Finally they have had to liquidate key assets to do so. Never once generating profit.

I think Microsoft will probably produce such a scheme in either March or April, and I highly doubt they will discontinue their low end model. For non core gamers the differences will be superficial. While I think they will try to tie it in with a major release like Grand Theft Auto. I highly doubt that its permanently attached. Given the propensity of Rockstar to delay, and have difficulties bringing games to market. Well I doubt Microsoft wants their pricing dictated by an unreliable release window.

MS will wait until February at the earliest. Remember many of the major retailers have 30 day price guarantees. MS will want to be past major refunds. Cost to produce 360's will continue to drop and MS should get the Arcade SKU down to $199 before GTA IV arrives. At that price the Arcade will do great with GTA IV and also will do well with accessories. The purchasers will no doubt eventually pick up a HDD.

While a lot of what you say makes sense. Sony can afford to match Microsoft's price cuts though and I think Sony will ignore anything Nintendo does at this point but Nintendo won't lower prices until the Wii is no longer selling out each time it's shipped in the US.

Also, Microsoft are not in as strong position as one thinks they are. Outside the US hardcore market they still haven't had anywhere near the penetration level required for them to be able to knock Sony out. The only thing that will knock Sony out is losing their market share, not the current losses, and Microsoft are just not in the position to do enough damage to the Sony marketshare. Especially in Europe.

So as far as price cuts go, Sony will be dropping the price as well when GTA4 or MGS4 launch, whichever comes first, because marketshare is what's important. If Sony gain enough marketshare they can keep the PS3 going for much longer period of time and that will greatly offset any losses they are intaking in the end. If Sony doesn't get their market share, then these losses become more of a problem. Either way, Microsoft are far better served to try and get games like MGS4 and FFXIII, Versus XIII, Tekken 6 etc... out of Sony hands because that will hurt Sony a lot more then any price cut will.

If Sony get their market share, they won't be going anywhere and they will simply make a console that they profit from straight away when the time comes. Remember, while Sony is taking larger losses then expected, the company is still making money. So if Sony can get their fair share of the market, they won't leave.

At some point, Sony has to think "we need to start making money". That alone prevents them from further price cuts. Microsoft can squish them with a $100 price cut. $250 for a premium is very attractive and financially impossible for Sony to match. Sony would have to do yet another $100 price cut (third one) just to keep up