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Forums - Sales - Pacher Explains Why He Predicts WiiHD Believes Will Will Lose MarketShare

supercat said:

Why would the Wii want to move up to a HD console? 

 

It might just have to, as Blu-ray looks like the way future consoles will go, and this will help the big 3 avoid piracy which has been hampering the wii.  Proprietary formats haven't done a lot for the wii.

What proprietary format on Wii?  If you mean the optical medium, it's a standard DVD. 



The rEVOLution is not being televised

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jarrod said:
Garnett said:


You mean Nintendo made gaming big? or do you mean Nintendo makes the best selling "casual" games?

Actually, Nintendo did pretty much single handedly revive the US games market in the 1980s after the crash.  And Japan's games market was pretty much built on the Famicom.

Yea i know.



Viper1 said:
supercat said:

Why would the Wii want to move up to a HD console? 

 

It might just have to, as Blu-ray looks like the way future consoles will go, and this will help the big 3 avoid piracy which has been hampering the wii.  Proprietary formats haven't done a lot for the wii.

What proprietary format on Wii?  If you mean the optical medium, it's a standard DVD. 


fo real?  If that is true then the Wii could play a movie....   is that correct?  I thought that the whole thing was proprietary



supercat said:
Viper1 said:
supercat said:

Why would the Wii want to move up to a HD console? 

 

It might just have to, as Blu-ray looks like the way future consoles will go, and this will help the big 3 avoid piracy which has been hampering the wii.  Proprietary formats haven't done a lot for the wii.

What proprietary format on Wii?  If you mean the optical medium, it's a standard DVD. 


fo real?  If that is true then the Wii could play a movie....   is that correct?  I thought that the whole thing was proprietary

Nope. Wii's is  a DVD, only issue is that Nintendo didn't pay for DVD royalties and thus does not have the DVD codec. The hardware is the same.



Garnett said:


Nintendo wasn't hardcore last gen, they were the same as they are now, its just now they got motion controls.

Casual games wont outsell hardcore games, but casual games with motion controls will.


I don't buy that.  Iwata became the CEO in 2002, long after the gamecube established its failure to gain a large market share (although it was still a profitable venture).  It was Iwata that implemented the Blue Ocean strategy, starting with the DS games.  He mentions this strategy in the Tokyo Game show in 2005 and how they started this with Nintendogs and Brain Age, both which had been recently released and showed great potential already.  He wanted to appeal to an expanded audience by innovating something new that would appeal to more than just trying to be the best graphics.  Then he unveiled the Revolution.

As for "Casual games won't outsell hardcore games" unless they have motion controls I have only this to offer:  Tetris, which has outsold every "hardcore" game there is (even if you just consider gameboy sales and not sales of the same game on all platforms).  With Nintendogs and Brain Age also close, no -- it isn't just about motion controls.  It's about finding the thing that appeals to a broader audience. 

edit:  I will grant that the Nintendo development did games that were 'cartoony', but they were very specifically targetted at gamers whereas games like "Nintendogs", "Wii Sports", "Brain Age", are most definitely not targetted at the same group as Super Mario Sunshine.  Prior to the Blue Ocean strategy, you find few games like those.



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JMan said:
Garnett said:


Nintendo wasn't hardcore last gen, they were the same as they are now, its just now they got motion controls.

Casual games wont outsell hardcore games, but casual games with motion controls will.


I don't buy that.  Iwata became the CEO in 2002, long after the gamecube established its failure to gain a large market share (although it was still a profitable venture).  It was Iwata that implemented the Blue Ocean strategy, starting with the DS games.  He mentions this strategy in the Tokyo Game show in 2005 and how they started this with Nintendogs and Brain Age, both which had been recently released and showed great potential already.  He wanted to appeal to an expanded audience by innovating something new that would appeal to more than just trying to be the best graphics.  Then he unveiled the Revolution.

As for "Casual games won't outsell hardcore games" unless they have motion controls I have only this to offer:  Tetris, which has outsold every "hardcore" game there is (even if you just consider gameboy sales and not sales of the same game on all platforms).  With Nintendogs and Brain Age also close, no -- it isn't just about motion controls.  It's about finding the thing that appeals to a broader audience. 

edit:  I will grant that the Nintendo development did games that were 'cartoony', but they were very specifically targetted at gamers whereas games like "Nintendogs", "Wii Sports", "Brain Age", are most definitely not targetted at the same group as Super Mario Sunshine.  Prior to the Blue Ocean strategy, you find few games like those.

1. Gamecube was a flop, because too many casual games and it was the "kitty console", while Xbox was huge and blunky, they flopped while the PS2 was the cool thing back then.

2. Tetris is a arcade game, just like spade is a arcade game, those types of games dont count.



Alby_da_Wolf said:
Metallicube said:

The Move has a CHANCE to be successful, but it's going to come down the the games released. Those people who are just looking at the Move and saying "well.. Wii has motion controls and IT'S successful, now PS3 does, so that means IT will now be successful!!1" don't understand the true roots of Wii's success..


I'm not a Sony hater by any means, but IMVHO MS and Sony's motion controls for this gen are just to stop falling behind Nintendo and let themselves and 3rd parties start grasping the concepts and their practical applications ASAP. They can't harm PS3 and XB360, they can even benefit them, but it's too late to fill the gap from Wii.

About 3D with glasses I totally agree: I won't ever spend a cent on it. When 3D TV will be made WITHOUT any gadget to wear to watch it, I'll start considering it.

BTW parallax barrier 3D screens too, despite being glasses-free, are not very practical for multiple users, as 3D effect is enjoyable only at a limited distance interval from an ideal point, so it's not a tech living room-ready.

They can't eh?

As disruptive attackers follow their own sustaining trajectories, they make inroads into the low end of the market or begin pulling less demanding customers into a new context of use. What happens when the disruptive entrant begins to make inroads? A good way to visualize what incumbents can do when faced with a disruptive attack is to consider how humans respond to a perceived threat. Our body immediately reacts. We produce adrenaline. Our heart rate goes up. Our respiration rate goes up. Blood flow redirects from nonessential areas to critical areas. Our body is prepared for one of two actions: fight or flight.

Fight? That's sounds like Sony and Microsoft releasing motion controls.

Now, hear Reggie

They will see our results, and they'll see how much of a challenge and dogfight this new era of gaming will be

Now, what is disruption. Here is what happens (remember, Nintendo is disrupting the industry with motion controls)

-First is the ‘aggressive growth’ phase by the disruptor. Second is the ‘counterattack’ by the incumbents. Third is the fallout from the counterattack. Most of the time, the counterattack is unsuccessful and the incumbents are made *gone*.

Counter attack. Like making their own motion controllers. Sound familiar.

Don't doubt it. Nintendo's aim is to make Sony and Microsoft gone.



Garnett said:
JMan said:
Garnett said:


Nintendo wasn't hardcore last gen, they were the same as they are now, its just now they got motion controls.

Casual games wont outsell hardcore games, but casual games with motion controls will.


I don't buy that.  Iwata became the CEO in 2002, long after the gamecube established its failure to gain a large market share (although it was still a profitable venture).  It was Iwata that implemented the Blue Ocean strategy, starting with the DS games.  He mentions this strategy in the Tokyo Game show in 2005 and how they started this with Nintendogs and Brain Age, both which had been recently released and showed great potential already.  He wanted to appeal to an expanded audience by innovating something new that would appeal to more than just trying to be the best graphics.  Then he unveiled the Revolution.

As for "Casual games won't outsell hardcore games" unless they have motion controls I have only this to offer:  Tetris, which has outsold every "hardcore" game there is (even if you just consider gameboy sales and not sales of the same game on all platforms).  With Nintendogs and Brain Age also close, no -- it isn't just about motion controls.  It's about finding the thing that appeals to a broader audience. 

edit:  I will grant that the Nintendo development did games that were 'cartoony', but they were very specifically targetted at gamers whereas games like "Nintendogs", "Wii Sports", "Brain Age", are most definitely not targetted at the same group as Super Mario Sunshine.  Prior to the Blue Ocean strategy, you find few games like those.

1. Gamecube was a flop, because too many casual games and it was the "kitty console", while Xbox was huge and blunky, they flopped while the PS2 was the cool thing back then.

2. Tetris is a arcade game, just like spade is a arcade game, those types of games dont count.

If you want to believe that it is exclusively motion controls added to casual games that make casual games outsell hardcore, that's your choice.  The fact that Tetris, Nintendogs and Brain Age outselling most hardcore despite not having motion controls can all be excluded from your belief by creating whatever rules you want to exclude them.  It doesn't change the fact that casual games CAN outsell hardcore without motion controls.  But that's irrelevant to the topic anyway.

Nintendo's blue ocean strategy wasn't just motion controls.  The motion controls were just one of the outcomes of that strategy, but it isn't the only part.  Their marketing direction changed, their design philosophy changed.  You say they are identical to the Nintendo that created the GC with the exception of motion controls, but that is definitely not true.  From what Patcher said, he thought Nintendo needed an HD because that's just the next logical step (for a Nintendo of the GC era to compete with Sony and Microsoft).  But that's not the new Nintendo, and Patcher is failing to understand that. 



JMan said:
Garnett said:
JMan said:
Garnett said:


Nintendo wasn't hardcore last gen, they were the same as they are now, its just now they got motion controls.

Casual games wont outsell hardcore games, but casual games with motion controls will.


I don't buy that.  Iwata became the CEO in 2002, long after the gamecube established its failure to gain a large market share (although it was still a profitable venture).  It was Iwata that implemented the Blue Ocean strategy, starting with the DS games.  He mentions this strategy in the Tokyo Game show in 2005 and how they started this with Nintendogs and Brain Age, both which had been recently released and showed great potential already.  He wanted to appeal to an expanded audience by innovating something new that would appeal to more than just trying to be the best graphics.  Then he unveiled the Revolution.

As for "Casual games won't outsell hardcore games" unless they have motion controls I have only this to offer:  Tetris, which has outsold every "hardcore" game there is (even if you just consider gameboy sales and not sales of the same game on all platforms).  With Nintendogs and Brain Age also close, no -- it isn't just about motion controls.  It's about finding the thing that appeals to a broader audience. 

edit:  I will grant that the Nintendo development did games that were 'cartoony', but they were very specifically targetted at gamers whereas games like "Nintendogs", "Wii Sports", "Brain Age", are most definitely not targetted at the same group as Super Mario Sunshine.  Prior to the Blue Ocean strategy, you find few games like those.

1. Gamecube was a flop, because too many casual games and it was the "kitty console", while Xbox was huge and blunky, they flopped while the PS2 was the cool thing back then.

2. Tetris is a arcade game, just like spade is a arcade game, those types of games dont count.

If you want to believe that it is exclusively motion controls added to casual games that make casual games outsell hardcore, that's your choice.  The fact that Tetris, Nintendogs and Brain Age outselling most hardcore despite not having motion controls can all be excluded from your belief by creating whatever rules you want to exclude them.  It doesn't change the fact that casual games CAN outsell hardcore without motion controls.  But that's irrelevant to the topic anyway.

Nintendo's blue ocean strategy wasn't just motion controls.  The motion controls were just one of the outcomes of that strategy, but it isn't the only part.  Their marketing direction changed, their design philosophy changed.  You say they are identical to the Nintendo that created the GC with the exception of motion controls, but that is definitely not true.  From what Patcher said, he thought Nintendo needed an HD because that's just the next logical step (for a Nintendo of the GC era to compete with Sony and Microsoft).  But that's not the new Nintendo, and Patcher is failing to understand that. 


there stratagy is  about selling a positive image or vision, of  accesibility,  inovation and interaction.  I mean look at the Wii. it looks like its from haven for Frick sake!!! the thing looks so pure and untainted its absolutly outragous.

If you look at the Twins more prossesing power and smaller pixles and trying to push the coregamers  negitive violent status quo forward was definitly there vision. Fueling the fire.

Now look at the black Wii. There going to get games that core gamers will have no choice but to buy the wii to play on it. Core gamers will look at the black Wii and say OMG thx god it dosent look like that freeken positive crap angel white BS Iv been Brainwashed to hate by sony's ad campagnes. Still they will give in since the Wii's price is not that high.

Oh its on like Donkey Kong Biat6ch!!!!!

Its already happened. Look at Monster Hunter tri. Do you know how many Ps3 owners are Butt hurt cause they had to buy a Wii to play that. LOL

I see a ton of them on the CAPCOM forums its hilarious!!!

I think im starting to understand Nintendo's Plan. That hole work your way back to the Core thing you guys been talking about. It works so well with there low cost machine. Disruption. Well i call it pissing on everyons cake. but thats just me.

So most people will end up with a wii and the sony or a Wii and the Xbox  or a Wii and a PC.   Smart stuff. Is there a moment they will have to move out of that model or is this it.

 



Smashchu2 said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Metallicube said:

The Move has a CHANCE to be successful, but it's going to come down the the games released. Those people who are just looking at the Move and saying "well.. Wii has motion controls and IT'S successful, now PS3 does, so that means IT will now be successful!!1" don't understand the true roots of Wii's success..


I'm not a Sony hater by any means, but IMVHO MS and Sony's motion controls for this gen are just to stop falling behind Nintendo and let themselves and 3rd parties start grasping the concepts and their practical applications ASAP. They can't harm PS3 and XB360, they can even benefit them, but it's too late to fill the gap from Wii.

About 3D with glasses I totally agree: I won't ever spend a cent on it. When 3D TV will be made WITHOUT any gadget to wear to watch it, I'll start considering it.

BTW parallax barrier 3D screens too, despite being glasses-free, are not very practical for multiple users, as 3D effect is enjoyable only at a limited distance interval from an ideal point, so it's not a tech living room-ready.

They can't eh?

As disruptive attackers follow their own sustaining trajectories, they make inroads into the low end of the market or begin pulling less demanding customers into a new context of use. What happens when the disruptive entrant begins to make inroads? A good way to visualize what incumbents can do when faced with a disruptive attack is to consider how humans respond to a perceived threat. Our body immediately reacts. We produce adrenaline. Our heart rate goes up. Our respiration rate goes up. Blood flow redirects from nonessential areas to critical areas. Our body is prepared for one of two actions: fight or flight.

Fight? That's sounds like Sony and Microsoft releasing motion controls.

Now, hear Reggie

They will see our results, and they'll see how much of a challenge and dogfight this new era of gaming will be

Now, what is disruption. Here is what happens (remember, Nintendo is disrupting the industry with motion controls)

-First is the ‘aggressive growth’ phase by the disruptor. Second is the ‘counterattack’ by the incumbents. Third is the fallout from the counterattack. Most of the time, the counterattack is unsuccessful and the incumbents are made *gone*.

Counter attack. Like making their own motion controllers. Sound familiar.

Don't doubt it. Nintendo's aim is to make Sony and Microsoft gone.

They can't harm, meaning that although they cannot reverse the situation, they are an addition to PS3 and XB360 capabilities, in the worst case they'll add a few games and a few users.

That appears as a counterattack, but is it? Isn't it too late this gen? Wii already won it. Sony and MS cannot ignore it, so this gen they may now look aggressive, but maybe their main goals are to just stop falling behind and prepare for next gen.

The other choice for Sony and MS would be to flee, yes, but does it make sense?

Obviously Nintendo will have something new besides motion control for next gen, but motion control is the real first big thing appeared in gaming during the last decade, for MS and Sony developing their versions is an unescapable choice.

And, I'll write it again: next gen nothing can grant Nintendo will be able to release something with the same disruptive potential of Wii, surrendering to Wii2/Zii/Whatever without fighting and before even knowing what it will be and whether it will be successful or not doesn't make sense at all, it's just the wet dream of Sony and MS haters. And maybe of Steve Jobs.   

BTW the incumbent is Nintendo, now.



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