Pacher Explains Why He Predicts WiiHD Believes Will Will Lose MarketShare

[Alby_da_Wolf]

Smashchu2 said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Metallicube said:

The Move has a CHANCE to be successful, but it's going to come down the the games released. Those people who are just looking at the Move and saying "well.. Wii has motion controls and IT'S successful, now PS3 does, so that means IT will now be successful!!1" don't understand the true roots of Wii's success..

I'm not a Sony hater by any means, but IMVHO MS and Sony's motion controls for this gen are just to stop falling behind Nintendo and let themselves and 3rd parties start grasping the concepts and their practical applications ASAP. They can't harm PS3 and XB360, they can even benefit them, but it's too late to fill the gap from Wii.

About 3D with glasses I totally agree: I won't ever spend a cent on it. When 3D TV will be made WITHOUT any gadget to wear to watch it, I'll start considering it.

BTW parallax barrier 3D screens too, despite being glasses-free, are not very practical for multiple users, as 3D effect is enjoyable only at a limited distance interval from an ideal point, so it's not a tech living room-ready.

They can't eh?

As disruptive attackers follow their own sustaining trajectories, they make inroads into the low end of the market or begin pulling less demanding customers into a new context of use. What happens when the disruptive entrant begins to make inroads? A good way to visualize what incumbents can do when faced with a disruptive attack is to consider how humans respond to a perceived threat. Our body immediately reacts. We produce adrenaline. Our heart rate goes up. Our respiration rate goes up. Blood flow redirects from nonessential areas to critical areas. Our body is prepared for one of two actions: fight or flight.

Fight? That's sounds like Sony and Microsoft releasing motion controls.

Now, hear Reggie

They will see our results, and they'll see how much of a challenge and dogfight this new era of gaming will be

Now, what is disruption. Here is what happens (remember, Nintendo is disrupting the industry with motion controls)

-First is the ‘aggressive growth’ phase by the disruptor. Second is the ‘counterattack’ by the incumbents. Third is the fallout from the counterattack. Most of the time, the counterattack is unsuccessful and the incumbents are made *gone*.

Counter attack. Like making their own motion controllers. Sound familiar.

Don't doubt it. Nintendo's aim is to make Sony and Microsoft gone.

They can't harm, meaning that although they cannot reverse the situation, they are an addition to PS3 and XB360 capabilities, in the worst case they'll add a few games and a few users.

That appears as a counterattack, but is it? Isn't it too late this gen? Wii already won it. Sony and MS cannot ignore it, so this gen they may now look aggressive, but maybe their main goals are to just stop falling behind and prepare for next gen.

The other choice for Sony and MS would be to flee, yes, but does it make sense?

Obviously Nintendo will have something new besides motion control for next gen, but motion control is the real first big thing appeared in gaming during the last decade, for MS and Sony developing their versions is an unescapable choice.

And, I'll write it again: next gen nothing can grant Nintendo will be able to release something with the same disruptive potential of Wii, surrendering to Wii2/Zii/Whatever without fighting and before even knowing what it will be and whether it will be successful or not doesn't make sense at all, it's just the wet dream of Sony and MS haters. And maybe of Steve Jobs.   

BTW the incumbent is Nintendo, now.