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Forums - Sony - 39% Of Gamers Who Plan To Buy GT5 Do Not Yet Own A PS3

Galaki said:
theprof00 said:
Galaki said:
Yeah, a survey of 1000 is very... researchy.

have you taken college-level stats?

I don't think you even need schooling here. GT5, a single game, is going to sell 6 millions PS3. Don't tell me you are going to believe that.

The survey sound fishy to me.

Well i dont think you need schooling to figure out that between now and the release and even in the year after, that 39% can buy a PS3. Its not a survey saying 6 million people plan on buying a PS3 on GT5 launch.

Its saying as of now, 39% of people wanting to buy GT5 dont yet have a PS3. 20% may buy on between now and release, and 10% may buy one 6 months after its release and maybe 5 % wait until next christmas and 4% buy one on launch day. See how that works?



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Galaki said:
theprof00 said:
Galaki said:
Yeah, a survey of 1000 is very... researchy.

have you taken college-level stats?

I don't think you even need schooling here. GT5, a single game, is going to sell 6 millions PS3. Don't tell me you are going to believe that.

The survey sound fishy to me.


I don't remember who said it, but I believe the following quote would apply here:

"There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics"

Sound like someone playing fast and loose with the numbers here (and I'm just saying this because it's so far outside the norm of a game this late in a generation). Of course, I can't really tell you how good the study was because neither the OP nor the link in the OP actually show any of the study or a link to the study.



steverhcp02 said:
Galaki said:
theprof00 said:
Galaki said:
Yeah, a survey of 1000 is very... researchy.

have you taken college-level stats?

I don't think you even need schooling here. GT5, a single game, is going to sell 6 millions PS3. Don't tell me you are going to believe that.

The survey sound fishy to me.

Well i dont think you need schooling to figure out that between now and the release and even in the year after, that 39% can buy a PS3. Its not a survey saying 6 million people plan on buying a PS3 on GT5 launch.

Its saying as of now, 39% of people wanting to buy GT5 dont yet have a PS3. 20% may buy on between now and release, and 10% may buy one 6 months after its release and maybe 5 % wait until next christmas and 4% buy one on launch day. See how that works?

You lost me at hello.



Well that's a completely useless number. 39% out of how many? How many gamers wanted GT5 in their poll? They don't say.



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Galaki said:
theprof00 said:
Galaki said:
Yeah, a survey of 1000 is very... researchy.

have you taken college-level stats?

I don't think you even need schooling here. GT5, a single game, is going to sell 6 millions PS3. Don't tell me you are going to believe that.

The survey sound fishy to me.

Well, for one, take into context where the study was done. It is an American based study, that doesn't just use 1000 gamers.... it uses 1000 gamers every week cumulatively, and has a surprising amount of backing and credential http://www.otxresearch.com/

So, looking at the American market, only 7.15M gt3s (the 15M selling iteration) sold in the US. So, that means 2.788M people planning to get it, less than hald of the number you have above.

Secondly, the last gt on ps2 only sold 10m, because there was also a gt4p on ps2 that cut into sales a bit. Out of that 10M, only 2.7M were sold in the US. 39% of which would be 1M consoles. This is 1/6th of the number you put up.

Now, forget about everyone buying those at the same time. We aren't going to see 1m people buy ps3s when gt5 comes out. Many of those people are going to buy it earlier or later, or even buy them used, or at christmas time... so really we are only looking at maybe 30% of that 1M people buying it at launch, which makes sense for a game of that caliber.



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1000 gamers survey... maybe 100 plan to buy GT5... from which 39 don't own a PS3... sure thats 39%.. but not from the 1000 gamers.. this doesn't mean anything..



 

Face the future.. Gamecenter ID: nikkom_nl (oh no he didn't!!) 

NiKKoM said:
1000 gamers survey... maybe 100 plan to buy GT5... from which 39 don't own a PS3... sure thats 39%.. but not from the 1000 gamers.. this doesn't mean anything..

They check with 1000 different gamers per week and have access to several databases. Every stat means something, unless it was done incorrectly, and this company seems to know what they are talking about. Just check out their website http://www.otxresearch.com/.



So... survey of 1,000. 39% = 390. Damn, ps3 will be on fire that week



CommonMan said:
Galaki said:
theprof00 said:
Galaki said:
Yeah, a survey of 1000 is very... researchy.

have you taken college-level stats?

I don't think you even need schooling here. GT5, a single game, is going to sell 6 millions PS3. Don't tell me you are going to believe that.

The survey sound fishy to me.


I don't remember who said it, but I believe the following quote would apply here:

"There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics"

Sound like someone playing fast and loose with the numbers here (and I'm just saying this because it's so far outside the norm of a game this late in a generation). Of course, I can't really tell you how good the study was because neither the OP nor the link in the OP actually show any of the study or a link to the study.

Exactly, the article doesn't really show anything or explain anything about the research. Actually, if you don't read the headline, you'd have no idea about this 39% thing. That alone makes me suspicious. This kind of thing needs more explanation.

Also where do they get their "number of people" planning to buy a given game? Pre-orders? Surveys? Anyone know?



Galaki said:
Yeah, a survey of 1000 is very... researchy.

Um, yes actually, it can be.  During elections most polls are taken with similar sample sizes.  What matters is getting a sample that is statistically representative of the population.

@topic: That's more than I would have guessed, so I'd like to see more about the survey methodology.  If true though the PS3 could be shaping up to have a monster fall.