DMeisterJ said: thetonestarr said: In other news, here's my thoughts on this.
Next summer, Nintendo will release a new Wii. This Wii will have DVD-playability and a built-in 10GB HDD.
Meanwhile, they will release a firmware update that allows "normal" Wii systems to use USB HDDs. The 10GB Wii will also be able to use USB HDDs.
They will redo their entire packaging scheme. The "normal" Wii will come with Wii Sports, Wii Fit, 1 Wii remote, 1 Nunchuck, and 1 Balance Board, selling for $230 ($229.99). The "Upgraded" Wii will contain Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Play, 2 Wii remotes, 2 Nunchucks, 1 Balance Board, 1 10GB HDD, and DVD playability. It will sell for $350 ($349.99).
Retro seems like the most viable contender for making the StarFox game. Being one of Nintendo's most skilled sci-fi developers, they ought to be the ones working with the classic franchises like Metroid and StarFox. They announced that they are taking a break from Samus, so they definitely have to be working on something else. I expect they have two projects under way - a new IP (I'm going to say it'll be a dual-release DS and Wii game with connectivity), and StarFox Wii.
Animal Crossing Wii is old-news, but I recall reading something about Nintendo claiming there will be no MMOs released by Nintendo for the Wii? |
Unrealistic: What are you smoking? You think they'd drop the price of a console that is selling as fast as it can (Stateside). Maybe in Japan they may lower it or bundle something but it's selling good in America... Why mess up a good thing. Packing in an eighty dollar peripheral, a seventy dollar remote (Wii mote + Nunchuk) a Hard Drive and DVD drive for only an extra $100 is not only a bad business move, but is highly unrealistic Realistically: Wii Hard drive (No more than twenty gigs, not that much stuff to download, plus want to keep only SD card owners happy) external, Animal Crossing MMO (Animal Crossing DS sold astoundingly well), Packing in Wii Play is a no-brainer since there are so many Wii's out there, before, it was a way to sell a game with a Wiimote when they weren't in stock. Wii Fit will not get packed in for that price but down the line, if it blows up, I imagine that it would get bundled in before the end of the lifecycle. Probably: Nintendo is well known for not following trends but setting them. They may never do a Hard Drive or a DVD drive. Like on the GC which had the most gimped online out of the three, they may announce and release a Hard Drive at an unrealistic price (read: Microsoft) or not really support it, or not produce a lot. Anyone ever find the LAN adapter for the GC? Doing a DVD drive for the Wii is realistic, and would help but remember, this is Nintendo we're talking about, they may never use DVD's because of piracy. My Conclusion: We will see a Wii Hard Drive, altough it may not be very well supported, we probably won't see a DVD player inclusion, because of piracy, and especially because of the next-gen dvd wars, Wii fit will not get bundled for the time being, Animal Crossing will be an MMO, and Starfox will be like on the N64 much like SMG is to SM64. |
Pay close attention.
RETAIL COST =/= COST TO NINTENDO.
I'll say it again.
RETAIL COST DOES NOT EQUAL COST TO NINTENDO.
Just because Wii Fit retails for $80, or a Wiimote + Nunchuck combo retails for $70 doesn't mean it costs Nintendo that much. In fact, they cost Nintendo much, much less than that. They get priced at those levels to make a profit.
Now, Nintendo wants to get their Wii Fit game out there to people. They'd like to get a lot of people to get Balance Boards so they can have another thing for developers to use. It's a proven fact time and time again that adding a peripheral to a system's repertoire any more than a year after launch is a poor idea and is usually not received well (hellooo, death of SEGA systems). Solution? Package it with all new consoles.
Nintendo is making a killing right now on each console sold. So, yeah, they could keep their consoles at the same price and not generate any extra attention. And yeah, it could sell out through next Christmas.
But that's if they keep production at lower levels.
Why not, instead, ramp up production to 2.5 or 3m each month? Sell as much as you possibly can! Because then, people would get them quickly, and attention would die off.
Ah, so then you've gotta do something to catch their attention. Okay, add something else to the bundle. And, hey, when we made this system, it cost us $200 to make each one, but now it's only costing us $150 (completely an estimate, folks). So, we can add these extra things to the bundle AND lower the price. Ohhhh, that'll catch all sorts of attention!
A 10GB HDD, running at 5400 RPMs, would cost approximately $5-$10 to acquire these days. You can't even find them on Newegg anymore, and they've got 40GB for less than $40. DVD ability, I believe, costs around $20. So that's $30 extra. We're at $180 cost to Nintendo so far. Wii Fit couldn't cost them any more than $40, and the extra Wiimote and Nunchuck won't cost them any more than $40. Add in Wii Play, which will cost them about $5 max, and we're at $270 cost to Nintendo. Pricing at $350 would be $80 profits at those estimations! If I was more liberal in my estimations, I'd have to say that $310 would be the MAX cost to Nintendo for that bundle, which means they'd still make $40 profits.
@shams
A 10GB HDD is what makes the most sense. Nintendo isn't trying to turn their system into the media center of the household. They aren't trying to get people to download movies, TV shows, songs, their life stories, etc onto their Wii. The HDD is for downloading WiiWare and Virtual Console titles. I have 12 VC titles (2 N64, 4 SNES, the rest a mixture) and I still have almost half of my blocks still open. With that said, one could probably download around 420-450 VC titles onto 10GB. I doubt anybody will EVER have that many, and I'm sure WiiWare titles won't take up an outrageous amount of space, either, for the most part. 10GB is plenty, especially if external HDDs would still be available to use.
I think, though, if they don't package in an internal HDD, then it's likely going to be 4GB internal flash memory, with external HDD support.
You have to remember that (1) the extra Wiimote + Nunchuck + Wii Play is only for the "Upgraded" version, (2) Given who the Wii is marketed toward and appeals to, many people would still prefer to go for the cheaper Wii and purchase their extra controllers later on. What putting out the upgraded edition does is make the Wii appeal more toward the "hardcore" gamers and pull in a greater audience. I think they could still continue with production of the same number of "Classic" Wii systems they're doing now (1.8m/month) and do around 1m/month of the "Upgraded" systems, and pull out pretty close to even.
Anyhow, I don't know why you guys are getting so worked up over my predictions. They're a lot more realistic than John Lucas's or leo-j's. :p