fixed

The thread just isn't complete without all the cards played from MS and Sony. I guess you can say that PS3 can overtake the 360 this year if nothing changes but that's like predicting the weather and to be honest, if Sony kill all profit to get their it probably defeats the purpose. America is lost for the PS3, MS was never in it in Japan, and the only real competition is in Europe. Personally, I would like to see if MS can make up any ground in Europe with what they have planned this year.

See 2008.  Yeah that's what I thought.  360 price cut this year and PS3 no price cut this year.  That is what I see the most likely and will result in another massive sales surge for the 360 just like 2008 after everyone was claiming the exact line you just said.

So yeah, they will gain momentum and surmount the PS3 by quite a bit for about a year until Sony can afford to combat such moves.

Also, who said anything about insults?  I was merely commenting on his post, not the poster.  His post completely ignored simple logic and basically only took into account a single possible outcome that would favor his said console.

Oh and to any who were wondering, the 360 didn't have a price cut last year, so get over it would you?  When the PS3 80gb replaced the PS3 40gb no one called that a price drop (except for the raging fanboys perhaps, but the majority saw it for what it actually was).  The Elite replacing the Pro was no different.  SKU changes, not price cuts.

Lets all not forget just how much cheaper the 360 is to produce.  The 360 doesn't have all the added value of a Blu-Ray drive, Wifi, bluetooth, and yet they are selling for the same price?  Obviously the PS3 when selling for the same price is going to represent a much bigger value (not taking games or online into account).  The 360 is really raking in profits per console sold right now.  Even without a slim revision they could afford to cut ~$50-75 off the price tag and still break even on hardware.  With the slim looking ever more likely given some pretty believable evidence from both MS and other sources, that cost reduction should make it so MS can cut the price by a full $100 again if they want.  Then bundle in Natal so its a 250GB Elite Slim with Natal for $250 and a Arcade Slim with Natal for $199.  Could be even less.

Lol those ARE the numbers.  He even broke it down in different periods to specifically highlight the holiday advantage and it would still take 1.34 years of the PS3 holiday rush numbers to overtake the 360.  If you are saying it should be lower for non-holiday then what you are saying is that it would take even LONGER than Kowenicki's calculations for the PS3 to catch up.

Your math isn't 'wrong', but I think your method has a problem.

You use the 30 weeks since the slim was launched.  That 30 weeks includes the huge spike from when the slim was launched.  That spike is never going to happen again.  It also includes the holidays, which is not really comparable to the rest of the year.  So your numbers include very few 'normal' weeks.  So because of that spike and the holidays, your numbers make it look like the PS3 will catch up faster than it really will.

^ This.

2010 is the 360's year just like 2008, 360 slim, natal, price cut, it will leave ps3 in the dirt (in terms of sales), you all know how well the ps3 slim sold, the 360 slim will match that and pass it with ease.

I don't think you understood my post at all..... What I'm trying to say is that:

While it might take the same time [whatever years it might be] The monthly average should be lower for every non-holiday month and higher for Holiday months. I'll give you an example:

124,067 per month to catch it by Jan 2014.

Should be more like 60,000 per month [non holiday] and idk.... 400,000 on holiday months. Now I didn't do any of the math but kowens method makes it seem like the ps3 needs to outsell 360 by 124k every month to catch up to it in 4 years. Thats exactly what he's saying but the ps3 can be outselling the 360 by 90k every month and still be able to catch up by idk...2012 [once holiday months are included]

If the current pace stands until holidays, chances are PS3 will outsell 360 by 150k+ a week for the holiday periods which would bring the PS3 second place scenario even sooner than is posted in the OP. The OP calculations are correct...I just dont see how Kowen's numbers (no disrespect) can counter that, attal.

I seriously don't think that'll happen but ok XD

^Its called an average. It includes both holiday and non-holiday considerations. Rather than separate the 2, he includes the total of all of them and just gives one simple average per month. Much easier that way.