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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why the Wii could fail

Avinash_Tyagi on 03 April 2007
Shane said:

If all you want is PS2 games, Wii is definitely an easy port machine. I somehow doubt the market will be pleased with this, though.

Porting to Gamecube was cheaper than porting to Wii will be, and that's even assuming a Wii port is possible, which it won't always be.

Nobody's taking Nintendo's online plans seriously. I'm having trouble even taking Sony seriously.

Gamecube had pretty similar third party support to the Wii. They were always third in line and will still be third in line, but there's enough support there to supplement those primarily interested in Nintendo's games.

I'd suggest that Wii Play and Sports are the most convincing argument that quality isn't really as great an influence on sales as sometimes is suggested.


 The thing is Wii is quickly becoming the Market leader, coupled with its low dev costs I don't see how devs could reasonably avoid making it their primary machine, it just stands to reason that devs will go with the machine they can make the most profit on

 

Wii Sports is a good game as well, some have even called it a great game 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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melbye on 03 April 2007

I really don't think HD will matter until 2010, the Wii will be replaced by Nintendo 6 in 2011



Mnementh on 03 April 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:

 Reason one is flawed Certian games already make use of Mii's and Online, like Sega's Pachinko game


'certain games' is a joke. I heard about no 3rd-party-game with Mii's, except Pachinko. Nintendo and Sega have a special relationship. Something like Sonic and Knuckles, earlier opponents, now partners.

The last weeks I heard no further complaints about online-devkits, possibly Nintendo delivered them. I hope so. But I doubt, that many 3rd-party-games will have Mii's, except Sega.



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Shane on 03 April 2007

Few third parties are short-sighted enough to make decisions on the basis of the Wii's early performance.

 I wouldn't bet on a 2011 replacement. Nintendo's just fine stretching out the generations as Sony is.



Hus on 03 April 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Shane said:

If all you want is PS2 games, Wii is definitely an easy port machine. I somehow doubt the market will be pleased with this, though.

Porting to Gamecube was cheaper than porting to Wii will be, and that's even assuming a Wii port is possible, which it won't always be.

Nobody's taking Nintendo's online plans seriously. I'm having trouble even taking Sony seriously.

Gamecube had pretty similar third party support to the Wii. They were always third in line and will still be third in line, but there's enough support there to supplement those primarily interested in Nintendo's games.

I'd suggest that Wii Play and Sports are the most convincing argument that quality isn't really as great an influence on sales as sometimes is suggested.


The thing is Wii is quickly becoming the Market leader, coupled with its low dev costs I don't see how devs could reasonably avoid making it their primary machine, it just stands to reason that devs will go with the machine they can make the most profit on

 

Wii Sports is a good game as well, some have even called it a great game


 they can make the most money from a PS3/360/PC game, just look at Epic and Unreal Tournament 3

 



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Avinash_Tyagi on 03 April 2007
Mnementh said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

 Reason one is flawed Certian games already make use of Mii's and Online, like Sega's Pachinko game


'certain games' is a joke. I heard about no 3rd-party-game with Mii's, except Pachinko. Nintendo and Sega have a special relationship. Something like Sonic and Knuckles, earlier opponents, now partners.

The last weeks I heard no further complaints about online-devkits, possibly Nintendo delivered them. I hope so. But I doubt, that many 3rd-party-games will have Mii's, except Sega.


 Well that may have to do with the fact that Sega was willing to jump on Wii development from day one rather than a lot of companies that are trying to get on now, of course Ninty will give it on a first come first served basis



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 03 April 2007
Hus said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Shane said:

If all you want is PS2 games, Wii is definitely an easy port machine. I somehow doubt the market will be pleased with this, though.

Porting to Gamecube was cheaper than porting to Wii will be, and that's even assuming a Wii port is possible, which it won't always be.

Nobody's taking Nintendo's online plans seriously. I'm having trouble even taking Sony seriously.

Gamecube had pretty similar third party support to the Wii. They were always third in line and will still be third in line, but there's enough support there to supplement those primarily interested in Nintendo's games.

I'd suggest that Wii Play and Sports are the most convincing argument that quality isn't really as great an influence on sales as sometimes is suggested.


The thing is Wii is quickly becoming the Market leader, coupled with its low dev costs I don't see how devs could reasonably avoid making it their primary machine, it just stands to reason that devs will go with the machine they can make the most profit on

 

Wii Sports is a good game as well, some have even called it a great game


 they can make the most money from a PS3/360/PC game, just look at Epic and Unreal Tournament 3

 


 Are you sure?  A game like Unreal Tournament 3 will just be torrented by most, I know I'd get it that way



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Hus on 03 April 2007

Pc probably but not console... and it will still sales quite a few on the PC.



HappySqurriel on 03 April 2007
Hus said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Shane said:

If all you want is PS2 games, Wii is definitely an easy port machine. I somehow doubt the market will be pleased with this, though.

Porting to Gamecube was cheaper than porting to Wii will be, and that's even assuming a Wii port is possible, which it won't always be.

Nobody's taking Nintendo's online plans seriously. I'm having trouble even taking Sony seriously.

Gamecube had pretty similar third party support to the Wii. They were always third in line and will still be third in line, but there's enough support there to supplement those primarily interested in Nintendo's games.

I'd suggest that Wii Play and Sports are the most convincing argument that quality isn't really as great an influence on sales as sometimes is suggested.


The thing is Wii is quickly becoming the Market leader, coupled with its low dev costs I don't see how devs could reasonably avoid making it their primary machine, it just stands to reason that devs will go with the machine they can make the most profit on

 

Wii Sports is a good game as well, some have even called it a great game


 they can make the most money from a PS3/360/PC game, just look at Epic and Unreal Tournament 3

 


Actually, if you're really trying to make the most money you would probably release 10 Nintendo DS games rather than 1 PS3/XBox 360/PC game ...

Epic targets those platforms with Unreal Tournament because they can build one of the most mature toolkits for producing games for these platforms, selling it for $500,000 to $1,000,000 to 250 to 1,000 developers and make a massive profit off of the tools.