I'd definitely wait to see what Sony has to announce at E3 before making any judgments based on exclusive lineups.

Resistance 3, Killzone 3, Starhawk, Twisted Metal, LittleBigPlanet 2, inFamous 2, Syphon Filter, and MotorStorm 3 have all been tossed around as rumored 2010 titles and if even half of those are true and combined with Gran Turismo 5, The Last Guardian, and Agent, Sony's lineup could really bury Microsoft's if they don't announce anything beyond Halo: Reach and Fable III for later this year.

Not a chance I think.
360 to outsell ps3 yes, but at a 2008 margin is not likely.
PS3 is at a low price point plus GT5 is gonna be out...

So...No!

I crossed out the ones which probably won't sell more than 2.5M copies because I only like to think about games which actually make a big impact.

Sony's lineup will only bury anyone elses on the court of public opinion not reviewer opinion. Reviewers can go suck Sony's left nut for all I care, if a game doesn't make a big splash then its not worth talking about it as if its going to do anything for the long term fortunes of any company.

I was probably being too lenient, I should probably apply Wii standards to the list and cross out anything which won't go 7.5M or higher because im nice.

Media Molecule pretty much killed the idea of LBP2 directly iirc.  They said there'd be no point or something to that effect, and resources would be better served to expanding the original.  We could get another updated SKU of LBP1 though, like the GOTY Edition.

Agent isn't a Sony game either.  If we're going to start with 3rd party stuff, then there Portal 2, Monster Hunter Frontier and some other notable 360 efforts this year.

And if we're delving into "rumored" territory, on Microsoft's end there's also Gears of War 3 and Shadow Complex 2, which have both been rumored for 2010.  Gears 3 alone would be bigger than "half of those" PS3 exclusives combined to be honest.  Microsoft's been strongly rumored to be behind the new Valhalla Games project too (Itagaki's new studio), and there's still talk of a new MMORPG from Mistwalker (though that's cooled some with The Last Story reveal).

I doubt Sony will release any other heavy hitters this year (I would only consider GT5 and Halo Reach heavy hitters of those titles though.), but we will definitely see more games coming out. Evolution Studios (Motorstorm) and Media Molecule (LittleBigPlanet) haven't released a game since 2008, Studio Liverpool have only done WipEout HD and its expansion (which, while fairly big, is still only a PSN game), Insomniac (R&C and Resistance) usually release a game a year (and so Resistance 3 might be inline for the holidays) and then there are all the games for Move (including the new Ape Escape), where Sony have hired some new studios to create some games. Finally, the next Killzone is heavily rumored for a late 2010 release. Also, I have no idea what is happening in Japan, other than that they are making Ape Escape, GT5 and The Last Guardian, but they should definitely be doing other stuff as well.

All in all, calling the holiday lineup is pretty hard to do at this point I think

Oh, and Crackdown 2 may or may not have been delayed (everything is a little cryptic on that, read #7 in the link) and ModNation Racers is releasing this spring (and will most likely be a great game, according to Naz's preview anyway).

EDIT: Reading through some posts, I forgot that Twisted Metal and Agent will be on the way as well (not to mention FFV13, though I very much doubt it will release in 2010. Maybe we will hear something from it at TGS).

Microsoft has Killer Instinct 3 and Geow 3 as rumored 2010 titles. Do you really think Sony's lineup can beat this years AAA exclusives coupled with those two?....seriously.

Regardless of delays, the 360's  heavy hitter lineup is still stronger for this year. E3 might either really give Sony much needed help or will seal the year for the 360.

To be honest, I kind of think Microsoft's "core" lineup for this year is pretty much set.  Crackdown 2 is probably being pushed to fall though, and they'll probably also pick up Kingdom Under Fire II.  E3 will just bring the Natal lineup from Rare/Lionhead/etc, which may have some more traditional titles mixed in admittedly. I think they'll have Gears 3 for fall 2011 as 360's big sendoff.

Out of Sony, I think we'll probably see a few of those rumored titles (Resistance 3 and Twisted Metal are all but confirmed already), but I doubt they have an onslaught of new stuff... if they did, they wouldn't have delayed GT5 into the period.  I also wouldn't expect much out of Japan, SCEJ has seemingly atrophied this gen with the balance of power shifting to the Worldwide Studios.  I do think we'll see a new Hot Shots Golf for Move though.  A lot of the Move games seem to be PSN though (which Ape Escape is btw).

Nintendo's pretty easy to figure out (Zelda, Wii Relax, Xenoblade, etc), but they may have a surprise or two (Kirby, Retro's game, Project Sora's game, etc).  The biggest surprise from Nintendo this year imo, is how they're positioned to utterly dominate Q2 (with Galaxy 2 & Other M) and how "hardcore focused" their lineup actually is (Sin & Punishment 2, Moster Hunter Tri, etc).

True, I think the 360 will end up having the better lineup as well, I'm just saying that I think the PS3 will have a very strong lineup as well (if you saw my edit, Twisted Metal and Agent are good candidates for being added to the 2010 list, not to mention that SOCOM 4 is coming). And I don't think Reach will move that much hardware, but that's another story.

@ jarrod

Where did you hear that Ape Escape would be a PSN game?

When it was announced at E3 last year.  All the (internal) games Sony mentioned then were said to be PSN... of course that could change, but I sort of doubt it considering even on PSP the franchise shifted to PSN only releases.