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I'd definitely wait to see what Sony has to announce at E3 before making any judgments based on exclusive lineups.

Resistance 3, Killzone 3, Starhawk, Twisted Metal, LittleBigPlanet 2, inFamous 2, Syphon Filter, and MotorStorm 3 have all been tossed around as rumored 2010 titles and if even half of those are true and combined with Gran Turismo 5, The Last Guardian, and Agent, Sony's lineup could really bury Microsoft's if they don't announce anything beyond Halo: Reach and Fable III for later this year.