HappySqurriel said:
I think that the real damage to both Microsoft and Sony would be felt in the next generation if these add-ons are not particularly successful or well received.
First off there is the third party factor, and while these Playstation Move and Project Natal games are unlikely to be as expensive as most PS3 or XBox 360 games it is likely that they’re significantly more expensive than their Wii counterparts; and large losses from products supporting failed add-ons after betting against the Nintendo DS and Wii will likely be the last mistakes many executives at third party publishers make for these companies.
Secondly, I would say there is a risk from core gamers feeling abandoned especially if Sony and Microsoft continue efforts to be more inclusive in their next generation. After last E3 core fans of Sony and Microsoft spent a lot of time hyping that their console’s new input devices would be used heavily in core games and their systems would have the hardcore gaming experience that Wii owners had been asking for since it launched. If these add-ons launch and the smaller core titles (that I said should have been made for the Wii) are replaced with the kind of motion-controlled shovelware that the Wii has been bashed for it will aggravate a lot of these gamers; and if these systems are unsuccessful and Sony and Microsoft continue to push heavily in this direction the feeling of abandonment will only get worse.
Finally, there is what I would call the Zune factor. If the expanded audience doesn’t see value in these products it will become dramatically harder to catch their notice in the next generation (regardless of what you do).
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Good points, all of them.
The Wii counterparts are an average of $33 according to Pachter so yes, the price will be higher on the DX9 systems. The executives of these 3rd party publishers are like junkies really. They are running like headless chickens from place to place trying to get a 'fix' on their profit issues withouit actually looking at the fundamentals of their businesses. A legion of faceless, underutilised developers just isn't going to cut it this generation. The most success has been made by 'named' studios like Bungie, Valve, Epic, Bethesda and Nintendo who established a relationship with their customers like Nintendo does and a reputation for quality like Nintendo has. Reputation and quality in a business trying to sell $60 + addons worth of entertainment is extremely important. This is why a game from DICE an EA game developer which EA hasn't ruined the reputation, can sell the way it does.
In addition to your second point, a failure in the current generation motion control schemes would also leave them flat-footed going into the next generation. No 3rd party will invest twice into a system which has been proved a failure and people would be very hesitant to make the leap for a console using said interfaces. Nintendo could then in that instant sweep up the remainder of the market on their good name alone, similar to how Apple has gone from strength to strength since the iPod.
The point of differentiation is important however. If Move = Wiimote clone and Natal = funny interface, both on the surface don't look as likely to succeed. However I would suggest the latter more than the former for greater potential success as it can potentially tap a market wider than Sony and Nintendo can in order to make the Xbox 360 into a viable service delivery platform. I don't know how large a potential 'media centre' market is but at least it'd be offering a unique service not seen anywhere else.
Check out this link it shows the NXE in 2009 at CES with Xbox 360 games and it also implies what Microsoft are going to be doing with the interface. They don't have to win by being the best, they just have to get as many avenues for deployment as possible. If they can get TV manufacturers onside then more power to them.
