What!! PS2 sales 160 Million by 2011, no way man, I can't see PS2 selling 18 million from here to the end of 2011, oh and I know you're going to say well DS is a handheld not a console, but DS will outsell PS2 later this year, 144 Million I think. It will do about 163 million end of 2011 and about 178 Million end of 2012.

They might run around like headless chickens too, Wodner if they will be stroppy when DS tops PS2.

"Handheld" is an adjective, the real definition is "handheld console", which we call "handheld" for short. Handhelds are consoles.

I guess the DS will be way ahead of the PS2 by the end of the year, but for the sake of the thread let's don't talk about it.

130 millions of PS2 have been sold so far, and honestly I don't see how Sony will reach 140 millions, let alone 160. On the other hand, Wii will probably reach 90 millions this year (or probably not, but I don't think it will miss it by more than 3 millions) and then 110 millions by 2011.

Then, probably the Wii 2 will come out, but I don't think the Wii will be discontinued. It happened for the GameCube, but it had quite poor sales. On the contrary, the GBA sold very well and in fact it was not discontinued after the DS came out, it was only sold at a lower price. So, discontinuing is not the standard policy for Nintendo, and I think we will see the Wii sold at $99/€99 in 2012.

Anyway, maybe the Wii won't sell more than the PS2 overall, but I think it will get veeery near. My prediction is that the Wii will reach something like 145 millions by 2015.

And, Snake, it doesn't matter that you guessed a prediction: this doesn't make all your predictions correct. In particular, I think you said a lot of incorrect stuff here (not talking about the wrong data).

Yeah, this is the part where you're gonna be off a bit... but hey, more power to ya.

you seem to think gaf is one of those HD console elitist sites. GAF frickin loves the DS

game boy, sega handhelds, gba, psp......

GBA is probably the best comparison we have, it was the leading market platform and hugely successful for Nintendo, yet got a fairly quick wind down, and it sold 27% of it's lifetime total after DS had launch (about 22m units).  If we anticipate Wii to be around 110m before it's successor hits (which seems a fairly mid-road figure really, about 21m annually over the next 2 years), it'd sell ~140m lifetime if it behaves similarly to GBA.  Which is probably enough to clear PS2.

No I disagree, whilst the PS has had a mixture of casual and hardcore gamers, the wii is mainly made up of casual gamers. Currently hardcore gamers are split between on x360/ps3, some even chose Wii, hoping to get more core games like RE4.

You can define casual by what kind of games they play and how long they play for, when i play on WiiSports, you do not need to spend very long on there to be satisfied, I only ever play that game for 1-2 hours max which is casual, whereas I if I pop in a game like Demon Souls in the ps3 I could quite happily sit ther playing up to 8 hours which is hardcore.

I know lots of people who was not even interested in gaming that now own a Wii, my mum is such an example, and an example of what she likes is Just Dance and Animal Crossing and Wii Fit, She only plays on it for 1 hour maximum at any time, this is an example of how wii has caught a whole new audience.

I'd have to agree with the other opinions that Wii will pass it for the following reasons.

1. Following the worldwide charts with aligned launches the Wii has always been significantly ahead of the PS2's trend.

2. Every market leader stays on retail shelves for years after a new generation has begun. Thus, Wii will NOT be discontinued in 2012 when its sequel is released. It will remain on shelves for about 4-5 years after that.

The only thing that could possible screw the Wii is if 3rd parties completely abandon it in favor of HD Twins since their combined market share is still greater than Wii's whereas every other market leader has had a larger base than all competitors combined.

If you define "hardcore" by time played, then big Wii hits like Mario Kart, Smash Brawl or Monster Hunter indicate a pretty substantial hardcore audience on the platform.  Besides, even "casual" games tend to rack up significant total hours over the long term.  What's more hardcore, playing Wii Sports 1-2 hours max consistently for a year or playing Demon's Souls up to 8 hours at a time for 3 weeks?

Really, Wii's the mixture this gen, but I'd agree that the rise of "casual" buzz has made the markets murkier for the (usually) risk averse industry.  Which is why so many publishers balk and retreat the comparably narrow, predictable focus of the HD twins.