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Gamerace said:
The GBA was still giving the PS3 a run for it's money for top sales dog (in last) for the first couple years of this gen.

GBA is probably the best comparison we have, it was the leading market platform and hugely successful for Nintendo, yet got a fairly quick wind down, and it sold 27% of it's lifetime total after DS had launch (about 22m units).  If we anticipate Wii to be around 110m before it's successor hits (which seems a fairly mid-road figure really, about 21m annually over the next 2 years), it'd sell ~140m lifetime if it behaves similarly to GBA.  Which is probably enough to clear PS2.