This thread is based on a faulty assumption that Nintendo would discontinue the Wii when the next generation hit. They did abandon GC but GC was already dead.

Nintendo sold NES loooooong into the next generation. The GBA was still giving the PS3 a run for it's money for top sales dog (in last) for the first couple years of this gen.

Nintendo will continue to sell Wii's as long as Wii's sell whether that's another 2 years or 20.

Also Wii's selling about 20m a year so in 3 years, even with logically decline it'll be at 117m not 90.

You could be right in the end. If Wii's discontinued early it may never outsell PS2. But facts say Wii has continually sold faster than the PS2 from launch right until today. So if it follows the same sales curve it will not only last 10 years as well, it'll probably last 12 and outsell PS2 by 25-50m.

why do you think Wii will only sell 20 million in the next 3 years? i think it can do that this year

It's going to be up to Nintendo if the Wii is going to outsell the PS2 LTD.

If Nintendos next console is a bit more hardcore and expensive then I can see them having a tough start next gen. It will be a mirrior image of the PS3 of this gen. And with that I could see the Wii selling gang busters for years to come while the Wii2 strugles, with a higher pricetag, with the casuals.

If this is the case then the Wii won't only beat the PS2 LTD it will be a bloodletting.

With all that I don't see that happeing. I think Nintendos next console will be afordable and draw in the casuals. Although casuals are afraid and confused by new tech. Becasue of that I believe now the Wii taking over the PS2 is inevitable.

Time will tell

One thing this gen has taught us, or at least thoes of us who have been paying attention, is that anything can happen. It's really fun and exciting like that don't you agree?

DVD players sell more than consoles so we shouldnt consider PS2 either.  Look when you walk in a Game store to purchase something that plays "games"  then all should be counted.  PS2 is leading but the DS is closing the gap.  Its too bad there are/where no worthy games to match the 150 million sells of the system.  Would of been GREAT..Hmm lets see maybe a pack in.

I kind of agree with the OP but not for the same reasons. I think near enough all of his ideas and logic are stupid. The PS2 will not be around for another 3 years and will not sell 160m. Why should it last 2 gens? I think the Wii has at least 2 more really strong years' sales left. It will comfortably reach, say 100-120m IMO. It may start to reach saturation point towards the higher end of that scale and it's not the console manufacturers who decide how long a console is manufactured for, it's primarily the consumers, closely followed by retailers. So i think the Wii may get discontinued before it gets there if demand dries up and Nintendo can't do anything to re-stimulate public interest in the Wii. Also, a point to remember is that many of the PS2'S sold were replacements for broken or faulty systems, thus it has taken that much longer to reach saturation point.

Yeah, I think that Nintendo will probably discontinue the Wii in two or three years, which will make impossible for it to outsell the PS2. However, DS is still there, and, by the end of the year, will become the best selling console of all time.

Nintendo won't discontinue the Wii until market conditions are unfavourable to them/it.

thoughts.. hmm well you might be right i can't see the future but you might be wrong as well.

my other thought is that you are afraid of Nintendo taking that place and your trying to convince yourself that it will never happen!

and one more thing shouldn't you say units instead of copies?

I like doing graphics, and here's one for you ^_^ People say that handhelds ain't consoles, people say that saturation point for handhelds is higher than for consoles, thus no surprise that DS is near to oversell PS2. Theoretically it might be, but practically handhelds tend to sell less than consoles: