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This thread is based on a faulty assumption that Nintendo would discontinue the Wii when the next generation hit. They did abandon GC but GC was already dead.

Nintendo sold NES loooooong into the next generation. The GBA was still giving the PS3 a run for it's money for top sales dog (in last) for the first couple years of this gen.

Nintendo will continue to sell Wii's as long as Wii's sell whether that's another 2 years or 20.

Also Wii's selling about 20m a year so in 3 years, even with logically decline it'll be at 117m not 90.

You could be right in the end. If Wii's discontinued early it may never outsell PS2. But facts say Wii has continually sold faster than the PS2 from launch right until today. So if it follows the same sales curve it will not only last 10 years as well, it'll probably last 12 and outsell PS2 by 25-50m.