I kind of agree with the OP but not for the same reasons. I think near enough all of his ideas and logic are stupid. The PS2 will not be around for another 3 years and will not sell 160m. Why should it last 2 gens? I think the Wii has at least 2 more really strong years' sales left. It will comfortably reach, say 100-120m IMO. It may start to reach saturation point towards the higher end of that scale and it's not the console manufacturers who decide how long a console is manufactured for, it's primarily the consumers, closely followed by retailers. So i think the Wii may get discontinued before it gets there if demand dries up and Nintendo can't do anything to re-stimulate public interest in the Wii. Also, a point to remember is that many of the PS2'S sold were replacements for broken or faulty systems, thus it has taken that much longer to reach saturation point.
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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!