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Forums - Sales Discussion - The OFFICIAL May NPD Prediction Thread

Woh..holy shit at software numbers

331k NDS POKEMON DIAMOND VERSION
314k WII MARIO PARTY 8
249k PS2 SPIDER-MAN 3
238k NDS POKEMON PEARL VERSION
227k WII PLAY W/ REMOTE
217k 360 FORZA MOTORSPORT 2
184k 360 GUITAR HERO 2 W/ GUITAR
140k 360 SPIDER-MAN 3
138k 360 COMMAND & CONQUER 3: TIBERIUM WARS
131k PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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Mario Party 8 ... 4 days of release ... 314k.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot 



albionus said:
 

  At least MS fanboys can return to playing a generally good lineup of games after lamenting the poor sales of their system of choice.


ha!! not for long my friend not for long.... you will soon be a believer too...



URNOTE Proud Owner of a 60GB PS3 Console (Purchased 12/22/06)

 #1 reason MGS4 is PS3 exclusive  xbox is too loud for snake to sneak around
PSNTAG= Xander732

TheSource said:

Woh..holy shit at software numbers

331k NDS POKEMON DIAMOND VERSION
314k WII MARIO PARTY 8
249k PS2 SPIDER-MAN 3
238k NDS POKEMON PEARL VERSION
227k WII PLAY W/ REMOTE
217k 360 FORZA MOTORSPORT 2
184k 360 GUITAR HERO 2 W/ GUITAR
140k 360 SPIDER-MAN 3
138k 360 COMMAND & CONQUER 3: TIBERIUM WARS
131k PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR


Edit: eh, they'll be a more in-depth analysis soon...



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

I updated my story on May top software expectations for easy comparisons.  ioi is dead on for 5 of the top 10..fairly close on 2 other titles..and way, way off on three titles.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Around the Network

Are we sure they didn't just get the 360 and PSP figures switched around?

More seriously, the evidence is really starting to pile up that consumers are largely ignoring the HD consoles. Wii and DS rule the hardware charts, and PS2 is still easily outselling both 360 and (especially) PS3. The price cut even has PSP getting in on the action, although still far behind Nintendo's monsters. Buyers are voting with their wallets, and the expensive high-end systems are not selling.

Pretty shocking news for the 360, in all honesty. I mean, we expected another subpar month for the PS3 (I thought it would be closer to 70k personally) but the 360 should be doing better than this. It has a great software library by now, so why isn't it selling? If there's any lesson that we'll take away from this generation, it's that companies ignore price point at their own peril.

That software chart is really interesting too. Counting Diamond/Pearl as one game, we've got Pokemon at #1, a poorly-reviewed Mario Party at #2, an even-more-poorly-reviewed PS2 Spiderman game at #3, the derided Wii Play at #4, and finally Forza 2 makes an appearance at #5. Clearly the so-called "casual" games are outselling the hardcore ones right now... not to the same extent as we see in Japan, but still noteworthy. Some will argue that this is good, others will see it as a disaster, but the industry is going to have to adapt to this new reality. Interesting months ahead, definitely.



My Website

End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/techgames/10362733_2.html

"For the Xbox 360, we are seeing 65% of third-party sales come from third-party publishers, compared with 15% for the PS3 and 25% for the Wii," he said.

360 = 3rd Party haven.



Everyone keep your eyes open for platform by platform top tens.  They usually start floating around about now.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Damn, I'd hope 100% of Microsoft's third party sales would come from third parties.



The X360 sales are shockingly low. I have a hard time believing they are correct. With the Xbox Elite and all... very strange.

Perhaps the NPD is a little like the movie business, where the "official" Box office that everyone reads actually is rigged (a well known fact) in favor of block buster movies. Or the Billboard music chart until Nielsen scan started collecting the data, when pre-Nielsen (up until early '90s) they used to call music stores, those data were also corrupt (I don't remember what method Nielsen use to collect data, but I heard it is accurate now). But in this case they would say slightly favor Sony because of the Sony-brand, and perhaps under-report Xbox because of the well known hatred against M$... how about that for a conspiracy theory? ;D

ioi, can you update us on the respective data-collecting methods?