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Forums - Sales - [POLL] Nintendo Switch Will Sell 1 Million in JP (CY26)?

 

What do you think?

Yes, NSW will blast through 1mil. 4 19.05%
 
Yes but it’ll be close. 3 14.29%
 
No but it will come close. 6 28.57%
 
No, it won’t even be close. 8 38.10%
 
Total:21

Currently settled around 20-35k/wk, Nintendo Switch has proven to be an evergreen product in the Japanese market. With over 1.5mil systems sold during the most recent calendar year, do you think Nintendo Switch has what it takes to hit 37.5mil by the end of the upcoming calendar year?



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Possible, but tough; that'd mean only a 30% or so drop, and considering nearly half of last year was prior to Switch's replacement, doing two thirds as well now that it's successor is on the market is no easy feat.



As Curl said that would require a modest drop and it dropped a bit over 50% last year despite it taking till June till the Switch 2 came out so it should decline by over 60% this year. It likely doesn't even have a million left in the tank for the entire rest of its life considering how it's doing compared to the 3DS post successor so far.

Last edited by Norion - 2 days ago

Not impossible. 1 million divided by 52 weeks would be 19,231 per week on average.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

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In the Famitsu thread, I predicted 750k. Switch 2 might get affected by price changes though, and then Switch has a real opportunity.



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No, but it should be close. I'm thinking 750k-850k.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

728k.
Half of what it sold in 2025, but fingers crossed 1m.



If the Switch 2 continues to deal with its supply issues for the rest of the year than maaaaaybe, Switch 1 might have a chance.
But it's a very small one.



No, I don't see it doing more than 700k tops.

It dropped 50% this year, next year it should drop even more. It's unlikely to get a big title like Pokémon Legends and it still had 5 months in 2025 before Switch 2.

Sales will drop a lot.



Nop.
Will not be close, at best, they will hit 800k.