I don’t think it’s just a coincidence Nintendo opted to go with a Mario Galaxy movie right now, and think it’s because they’re trying to create marketing synergy with the next 3D Mario. Which I think is essentially going to be a spiritual successor to those games without being Galaxy 3 outright. I’m thinking same space setting and universe with Rosalina and gravity mechanics, but on a much larger scale and distinctly unique from the Galaxy games. Super Mario Universe would seem like the logical name to me.

I’m also gonna say the game gets revealed at the Feb Direct for a May release, again to try to capitalize on marketing synergy with the movie as much as possible. Nintendo has had plenty of big games in recent years they didn’t reveal until just a few months before release.

I also think it’s coming Q2 because no Nintendo platform in their history has ever gone a full year without a new Mario platformer. I suppose they could launch in April with the movie too, but I think that’s maybe a bit too soon for it not to be revealed yet, and I think it’s smarter to let the movie have its own moment to take all the attention. 

Who do you think made it while the odyssey team was busy making DK Bananza?

I'm going to guess that we won't get 3d Mario in Q2 and the next 3D Mario will not be related to the galaxy movie.

It’s clear that team has been juggling both games for years now, why else would it have been a near decade between release for them when their track record before that was every 3-4 years? Not to mention Nintendo would have never let them make Bonanza if it came at the expense of waiting several years into Switch 2’s life cycle for the first proper Mario. Mario is way too important for that. 

Galaxy-like? Quite likely.
Q2 2026? Unlikely. I don't think the Bananza team has a game ready by then unless they were able to split the team somehow on 2 big games. DK probably entered pre-production at least by late 2017 or so after Odyssey launched. Not saying a 3D Mario game is guaranteed to have started 6 or more years ago, and the focus on DK makes that tough. I suppose the team could've been split for a long time. Maybe 3D Mario will be the Holiday 2026 title, but that's the earliest I see it happening.

It will be out fall 2026 IMO.

Movie in spring + new game in fall is the exact same formula they did with the first Mario movie + new Mario platformer (Wonder) that fall.

I mean, Q4 vs Q2 isn’t some massive difference. Seems silly to believe no way it could  be ready for one if it can be for the other. I doubt Nintendo wants to pit Mario against Gen X Pokemon anyways, which is all but confirmed for the Q4 slot at this point.

And again, people need to look at the track record for the Mario team. 8 years to make one game isn’t even remotely normal for them based on their history (DK Jungle Beat ‘04, Galaxy ‘07, Galaxy 2 ‘10, 3D Land ‘11, 3D World ‘13, Odyssey ‘17). They’ve surely been working on Bananza and 3D Mario together for the bulk of these last 9 years. It’s the only way it would’ve taken them that long to get Bananza out.

Q2 seems how highly unlikely to me. I'm guessing Q4. As to whether it's a Galaxy.... I have no way of knowing. Certainly seems reasonable that it would be.

I expect another Mario Wonder cycle. It worked for that game, so why not do it again? As for the new mainline entry, I do not believe it will be Galaxy. Individuals at Nintendo (namely Miyamoto) have been talking about this game’s development since the 2010s. There’s no way they spent that long on a successor to Galaxy (nor Odyssey). Plus, Nintendo doesn’t often revisit concluded sub-series.

3D Mario this year? Maybe, I would be surprised.

Timetable after launch for first new Mario platformer on each Nintendo console:

NES: launch window
SNES: launch
Game Boy: launch
N64: launch
GBA: N/A (never got a new Mario)
GCN: 9 months
DS: 18 months
Wii: 12 months
3DS: 8 months
Wii U: launch (12 months for new non-2D entry)
Switch: 7 months

So aside from the GBA and DS anomalies, which were handhelds not home consoles, we can see they’ve never gone more than a year past launch for a new Mario platformer. I really do think they consider that relatively quick release window for Mario pivotal to their software strategy for every console, and as such I think we’re getting the game in Q2.