Timetable after launch for first new Mario platformer on each Nintendo console:
NES: launch window
SNES: launch
Game Boy: launch
N64: launch
GBA: N/A (never got a new Mario)
GCN: 9 months
DS: 18 months
Wii: 12 months
3DS: 8 months
Wii U: launch (12 months for new non-2D entry)
Switch: 7 months
So aside from the GBA and DS anomalies, which were handhelds not home consoles, we can see they’ve never gone more than a year past launch for a new Mario platformer. I really do think they consider that relatively quick release window for Mario pivotal to their software strategy for every console, and as such I think we’re getting the game in Q2.







