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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict the top 10 best-selling 1st party Switch games (at the end of its life)

While the Switch still has life and at least one massive title left in it, we are slowly nearing the end of it's lifespan, so I figure now could be an interesting time to try and predict what its top 10 best-selling 1st party games list will end up looking like when all is said and done. And just to be clear I don't mean what the list will look like the day the Switch's successor launches, but where it stabilizies once Switch games stop selling significantly, so it could still be a few years after the successor.

For the record this is what it looks like as of the end of 2022:

  1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 52m
  2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 41.59m
  3. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 30.44m
  4. Breath of the Wild – 29m
  5. Pokémon Sword & Shield – 25.68m
  6. Super Mario Odyssey – 25.12m
  7. Pokémon Scarlet & Violet – 20.61m
  8. Super Mario Party – 18.79m
  9. Ring Fit Adventure – 15.22m
  10. Pokémon: Let’s Go Pikachu & Eevee – 15.07m

I'll leave it up to you if you predict numbers or just the order of games.



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I'll start by throwing my own prediction out there:

  1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (duh)
  2. Animal Crossing
  3. Breath of the Wild
  4. Smash Bros Ultimate
  5. Pokémon Scarlet & Violet
  6. Super Mario Odyssey
  7. Pokémon Sword & Shield
  8. Tears of the Kingdom
  9. Super Mario Party
  10. New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe

So yea I expect a few shake ups to the current list with Breath of the Wild overtaking Smash and Odyssey overtaking Sword and Shield. Tears of the Kingdom is a little tough, but I expect it to confidently make it to 20-25m.

Number 10 is a real wildcard with several candidates but I'm going with U Deluxe which has just refused to stop selling for years and will now get an extra boost thanks to the Mario film, so I think it's still got several millions left in it (it's currently just below 15m).



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Depends if there is another Pokemon game coming for Switch. Considering B/W2 launched after 3DS and Ultra Sun/Moon launched after Switch it's not impossible we get another Pokemon game on the Switch even after the Switch 2 launches. Though maybe the S/V DLC is the final piece for Switch.

There's not much I disagree with on your own list. Maybe swap SW/SH and TOTK around but other than that...



Mario Kart 8 Deluxe being the most important title during the Switch history would've been quite the banger prediction back in 2017 lol.

And yeah, your list and predictions are pretty close to what most will expect for the end of the Switch active lifetime.

Kind of sad that we could arguably say that despite the record sales for the last two generations of Pokémon, they ended up also being the most divisive, broken and controversial games in the whole franchise thus far. May Game freak correct the shot on Switch 2 hopefully.



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The same, just add TOTK in 6th or 7th place.



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Likely the same just with TOTK added in. A shame that Super Mario Party is there and not Superstars cuz the later is such a massive improvement



1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 65mil
2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 50mil
3. Breath of the Wild - 37mil
4. Smash Ultimate - 35mil
5. Tears of the Kingdom - 32mil
6. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet - 30mil
7. Super Mario Odyssey - 28mil
8. Pokémon Sword/Shield - 27mil
9. Super Mario Party - 21mil
10. Either New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe or Nintendo Switch Sports - 18-20mil 

I don't think Ring Fit Adventure's legs are good enough currently to stay in the top 10. It's slowed down to much for that.

Edit: added numbers

Last edited by Kakadu18 - on 26 April 2023

This late into the life of Switch, Zelda: TOK is the only upcoming title guaranteed to be a 15-million and up seller. A possible Gen 5 Remake of Pokemon is guaranteed to hit 10 million and might get up to 15 million or more. Let me predict the top 10 with final numbers.

1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 58.38 million
2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 51.25 million
3. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 35.64 million
4. Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 34.33 million
5. Super Mario Odyssey - 32.10 million
6. Pokemon: Sword and Shield - 31.50 million
7. Pokemon: Scarlet and Violet - 30.08 million
8. Super Mario Party - 21.08 million
9. Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 18.86 million
10. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 18.42 million

Ring Fit Adventure doesn't have the legs (I agree with @Kakadu18 on that, at least) to stay in the top 10. I also don't see Let's Go having enough legs either.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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Mar1217 said:

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe being the most important title during the Switch history would've been quite the banger prediction back in 2017 lol.

Mario Kart was the top game for both WiiU & 3DS
2nd place on Wii behind Wii Sports (which was force bundled for years)
3rd on DS behind NSMB & the combined Nintendogs SKUs
4th on GBA behind 3 iterations of Pokemon
2nd on GC very close behind SSBM
2nd on N64 behind SM64



Wman1996 said:

This late into the life of Switch, Zelda: TOK is the only upcoming title guaranteed to be a 15-million and up seller. A possible Gen 5 Remake of Pokemon is guaranteed to hit 10 million and might get up to 15 million or more. Let me predict the top 10 with final numbers.

1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 58.38 million
2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 51.25 million
3. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 35.64 million
4. Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 34.33 million
5. Super Mario Odyssey - 32.10 million
6. Pokemon: Sword and Shield - 31.50 million
7. Pokemon: Scarlet and Violet - 30.08 million
8. Super Mario Party - 21.08 million
9. Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 18.86 million
10. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 18.42 million

Ring Fit Adventure doesn't have the legs (I agree with @Kakadu18 on that, at least) to stay in the top 10. I also don't see Let's Go having enough legs either.

Your numbers are wack. You think Mario Kart's legs are almost dead and it will only sell 6mil more but Pokémon Sw/Sh that doesn't chart anywhere and barely sells anything at this point will sell just as much from this point forward. Why do you think Animal Crossing and S/V will both sell another 10mil but Mario Kart only 6mil? It's clearly still selling far ahead of both in the charts everywhere except for Pokémon in Japan.

I also don't see any scenario where TotK ends up below 20mil.