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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for Switch in 2021?

 

Sell-through expectations for Switch in 2021?

Less than 15 million 52 5.37%
 
15.0 - 17.4 million 56 5.79%
 
17.5 - 19.9 million 97 10.02%
 
20.0 - 22.4 million 216 22.31%
 
22.5 - 24.9 million 176 18.18%
 
25.0 - 27.4 million 165 17.05%
 
27.5 - 29.9 million 70 7.23%
 
30.0 - 32.4 million 61 6.30%
 
32.5 - 35.0 million 11 1.14%
 
More than 35 million 64 6.61%
 
Total:968

2020 is over, so it's time to ask for sales expectations for the new year 2021. How much do you expect Switch to sell this year?

For reference, here are Switch's previous calendar years, according to VGC estimates:

2017 - 13.116m
2018 - 16.339m
2019 - 19.278m
2020 - 26.391m YTD (one or two weeks left to go for VGC)

...

Bonus question: Which officially announced Switch game are you looking forward to the most?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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Without knowing much of the games releasing it's a really hard guess.

But I am going to make a few assumptions and make my guess.

* We will see a new more powerful hardware SKU which will atract a new audience but I'm think the big market will be long term Switch users buying an upgraded model
* Evergreens obviously, but notably: Mario Kart 8DX, Animal Crossing, Breath of the Wild, Momotaro Dentetsu looks to be pushing hardware in Japan, RFA and so on
* New 'big' games: Monster Hunter Rise, BotW 2, Splatoon Spinoff, A new big game from EPD Tokyo (Mario or Donkey Kong)

I'm sure we're gonna see more heavy hitting games this year, but I feel confident in those releasing so I went with them. Somewhere between 22.5 - 25.0 would be my guess.

Of officially announced games: BotW2, Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime 4, Silksong, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Bravely Default II.

Outside of Q1 games, we know pretty much nothing so it's gonna be an exciting time ahead



im going with 31million. Only cause I like the number 31 lol.



 

 

Went safe with 22.5 - 24.9 million, but with the strong software lineup I'm expecting, won't be surprised if it's over 25m again.

Bonus: Shin Megami Tensei V



Somewhere around 25 million. If they have a strong lineup of games this year it could easily push 30 million again though.



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I think 2020 will be the peak year and a 10-20% decline would most likely put it in the 22.5-24.9 range so I'll go with that and specifically the upper half of that range.

Last edited by Norion - on 04 January 2021

I went with 22.5 - 25m, so a slight decrease from 2020. I do believe this year will be much better in terms of software (according to my tastes at least.)

Bonus question : Breath of the Wild 2 and Silksong are my most anticipated titles.



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22.5 - 24.9 million

Bonus: SMT V



 

Im just gonna make a small little prediction for the next few years on Switch Sales

2021: 22 - 24 Million  

2022: 16 - 21 Million

2023: 11 - 16 Million

2024: 7 - 10 Million

2025: Likely New Console But Switch would still get a few million 3 - 7 Million

Total I think the switch could sell

Lowest: 115 Million (This is unlikely because 2021 will have some amazing games that'll probably push the sales to 95 - 100 million so an extra 15 million will be so easy to get that this number is almost impossible)

Likely Amount: 125 - 135 Million

Highest: 140 Million or more (this is almost impossible unless the switch can somehow release Outstanding Games or switch pro (kinda like the wii and the wii u) except the switch pro actually has a good reason to be purchased                                               



I think the sales throughout the year will be somewhat slower, but the sales during the holidays, which should have some proper holiday title(s), maybe even a new upgraded model, and finally some price cut, will compensate for most of that.

Thus, my expectation is ~26M

Bonus: Rune Factory 5

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 04 January 2021