Without knowing much of the games releasing it's a really hard guess.
But I am going to make a few assumptions and make my guess.
* We will see a new more powerful hardware SKU which will atract a new audience but I'm think the big market will be long term Switch users buying an upgraded model
* Evergreens obviously, but notably: Mario Kart 8DX, Animal Crossing, Breath of the Wild, Momotaro Dentetsu looks to be pushing hardware in Japan, RFA and so on
* New 'big' games: Monster Hunter Rise, BotW 2, Splatoon Spinoff, A new big game from EPD Tokyo (Mario or Donkey Kong)
I'm sure we're gonna see more heavy hitting games this year, but I feel confident in those releasing so I went with them. Somewhere between 22.5 - 25.0 would be my guess.
Of officially announced games: BotW2, Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime 4, Silksong, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Bravely Default II.
Outside of Q1 games, we know pretty much nothing so it's gonna be an exciting time ahead