Forums - Sales Discussion - Let's Predict the Floor for Metroid Prime 4

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What is the LOWEST number of units MP4 will sell?

1 million units 12 24.00%
 
2 million units 15 30.00%
 
3 million units 11 22.00%
 
4 million units 4 8.00%
 
5 million units 1 2.00%
 
6 million units 1 2.00%
 
7 million units 1 2.00%
 
8 million units 1 2.00%
 
9 million units 0 0.00%
 
10+ million units 4 8.00%
 
Total:50

While most prediction threads here are for launch weeks or LTD sales, I thought I'd offer something a little different for Retro Studios' long awaited return to the Prime franchise.  We know almost nothing about this title to date, which I think makes it the perfect time to do a thread such as this.

While we don't know when this game will launch, we do mostly expect that at the very least it will launch at the very least on the Switch.  It could also launch on its successor, but I can't imagine a world where they would deprive 80 million plus Switch owners the opportunity to buy a title that was announced in 2017.  We also know that just about every Nintendo franchise is breaking records across the board.  It's almost absurd the levels at which some of these games are selling.

What we don't know is when this title will launch or whether it will be received well by critics, longtime fans, or newcomers to the series.  We also don't know for sure that it won't end up being vaporware, but let's set that aside for this prediction thread.  

So what do you think is the LOWEST number of units that Metroid Prime 4 will sell on the Switch (again, assuming it does become a Switch title)?

Last edited by super_etecoon - on 13 August 2020

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2 million units, I'd say. If it releases too late in the gen when the Switch is already half-dead, I feel like they'll just make it cross-plat to not miss out on sales. Then, well, there is all the hype for a new Metroid Prime and how everything sells like crazy on the Switch.

I'm hoping for 5 million lifetime, but that'd require the game to be very good as well as it to be given a decent release window and exposure.



A game that never will release can't sell



Nothing to see here, move along

3m.



melbye said:
A game that never will release can't sell

That's true, but a little off-topic.

...I hope.



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2 million is the absolute lowest but I think 3m is more the safe-low bet. Honestly I think 4-6m is where it will land if it gets high praise, maybe even 7-8 but that's a bit optimistic.



I went with 4 million. I really think that Metroid Prime gamers are starved for the series right now and Retro Studios gamers are as well after playing and enjoying the Donkey Kong Country game. There are so many out there just itching to play this title that even an 80 on Metacritic won't keep them away. While the Metroid and the Prime series don't have the greatest of sales, I think that many, many more people have played these games via used or borrrowed copies and that the audience is much larger than it appears. I also think that the Switch just defies all odds when it comes to software sales and in an ecosystem that is sorely lacking quality, new FPS titles, MP4 will be something that will fill a very large void.

I think 2 million at launch should be expected and that the legs on this title will easily take it to 4 million and it will join the pantheon of Switch titles that have turned better numbers than all previous iterations in their respective franchises.



I think Metroid Prime 4 can at the very least emulate the success of the original Metroid Prime on the Gamecube. When MP launched people were hungry for a new Metroid game, the title looked phenomenal and unlike anything Nintendo had done before and it sold those 3 million on one of the worst selling Nintendo consoles ever.

If Retro Studios manages to make an excellent game and push the Switch on the technical side like they did with the original trilogy... I think success is granted. There is definitely hunger for a new big Metroid game and unlike the Gamecube, the Switch is immensely popular and sells like crazy. If Metroid Prime could sell 3 millions on the Gamecube... making the right moves Metroid Prime 4 can do that and more on the Switch. I'm gonna get crazy and say 5 million as long as Nintendo doesn't do anything stupid. Like launching the game when the Switch is not relevant anymore alla Samus Returns. If they do that, then 2-3 million tops.

EDIT: Oh, the floor. Like... the minimum. If everything goes well, 3 million. If they fuck it up, 1 million.



I said 4 million.

The best selling system that had a Prime-ready install base was Gamecube at 21 million total sales. Metroid has always been a very well regarded but niche series and the Wii had a userbase that consisted of a lot of people who would never even think of trying out Metroid, plus after just having had two Metroid Prime's on GC perhaps a decent amount of core gamers on the Wii just didn't bother with what felt like a lot of Metroids coming out. I had Wii and am a Metroid fan but didn't get 3 while I get 1 and 2 on GC. But now after well over a decade of waiting, with the Prime series very highly regarded, with Switch's high gamer base in which core Nintendo games are selling through the roof, I think Prime 4 is gonna blow away every other Metroid.

So yeah I think 2.5 million in US, 1.5 million in Europe, and 500k in Japan and the RotW is the minimum it'll sell, and wouldn't be surprised to see it launch holiday 2021, sell like 3+ million that quarter alone, and work its way up to something like 7 million eventually.



I fully expect the game to be the best selling in the series by far. 6m+ sales.

Assuming it's not an absolute disaster 3m is the floor I guess.