Data for Progress - Nevada Caucus Poll

Sanders - 35
Warren - 16
Buttigieg - 15
Biden - 14
Klobuchar - 9

Huge for Sanders if true. Data for Progress have been broadly accurate in recent races, both primaries and the 2019 elections before that. The only relevant discrepancy was Klobuchar overperforming their numbers by 4 - 7 points in IA and NH... which could put Biden in fifth again if it repeats.

This is what makes Trump so scary in a lot of ways, but specifically because of how good his instincts in Politics is. Pointing this out is essentially him winning the general election UNLESS its vs Bernie, which I've already stated is the only chance we have of beating Trump. Its a genius play by him and its not the first time he's pulled out this card in 2020. If they cheat Bernie then Trump wins.

For those that don't understand where I'm coming from, let's assume Bernie gets cheated and that for some reason Bernie supporters who just got cheated don't actually do the very likely thing of taking out their anger right there at the convention (Most of the people I follow on twitter are heading to the convention). They get bloomberg and then Trump keeps hammering away at the cheating of Bernie. Bernie supporters are angry, we're most likely going in with the most delegates and getting robbed so they say screw this. Some will see this and decide to screw the dem party by voting trump, while the majority will stay home and any chance of them coming out with trump hitting this message causing them to remain angry lessens the chances of them coming out to vote for the dem nominee. He doesn't need to convert anyone, he just needs to suppress the vote and that's why this is brilliant.

The funniest part is, this wont only turn off Bernie supporters and real lefties, but it will also disgust people watching the nomination process, regular folks who aren't hyper political who saw Bernie get the most delegates just to get screwed by the DNC and turn them way off of whoever the DNC anoints.

Again, no one but Bernie can beat Trump in 2020 and even then it will be difficult because Trump's political instincts are scarily good and honestly, he'd be better off without advisors. But then again, this is pretty much what I think the Dems are after somewhat. They'd prefer to lose to Trump than win with Bernie.

A very interesting opinion piece about the errors Mitt Romney made and that the eventual nominee of the democrats should avoid:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/17/dan-pfeiffer-mitt-romney-loss-2012-lessons-115340

Basically it's these three (but the article elaborates more on them):

1. Do not make this election solely about Donald Trump.

2. Frame the economic data on your own terms.

3. Get out of the liberal media bubble.

EDIT: And in another article Nate Silver explains different paths for Sanders to win the nomination and why Sanders ultimately is in the best position now:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sanders-might-have-a-ceiling-but-there-are-still-several-ways-he-could-win/

We'll see how Bloomberg will fare in the debate now. He'll probably excuse himself to no end and deflect saying they need to focus on Trump if he's attacked. I wonder how the other candidates teams are handling this in their strategy. But... an entire debate pilling on Bloomberg isn't going to do anyone but him any favors, either.

Here's why if Bernie wins the nomination, Trump loses...

Out of 14 million voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Trump only won by 78,000 votes COMBINED!

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/18/democrats-launch-ad-campaign-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-115739

Guess who is best positioned to flip those states? Bernie!

And guess what happens if Bernie flips those three states? Trump auto-loses. There's no recovery for Trump after that. He could take all the other contested states and still lose, as seen here... https://www.270towin.com/maps/dDR90

Even if Trump takes North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Arizona, and Nevada he still loses if he can't hold those three rust belt states!

I'd also like to say that if Bernie does get elected, down ballot doesn't matter all that much so long as we hold the house. The Senate could stay red, and it wouldn't matter. RGB would retire with Bernie elected, and then the R's would have to block her replacement seat for four friggin years. That would show people that R's can't govern and are nothing but obstructionist idiots, helping to get another Dem President in 2024. After that baby boomers should start to lose enough of their political clout for the Republican party to just slowly dissolve.

Ouch! Didn't know Pennsylvania was a state heavy on fracking. 

Ugh, Trump's approval continues to climb on recent polls in the wake of the senate impeachment vote. A record number of people are feeling good about the economy. Everyone's numbers in the GE now ressemble Clinton's or worse except sometimes for Biden, who has little chance of turning this around unless Bloomberg collapses.

feelsbadman.jpg

Silver lining is that rumors are that the Coronavirus's effects in the economy will be much harsher than previously expected.

Edit - and that a Trump poll nowadays is more likely to be accurate than in 2016 since now pollsters are correctly reflecting and accounting for educational attainment. So winning Wisconsin by 2 is really winning by 2 and not secretly losing by 10 come election day.

Which is ironic for Steyer since he just won the last poll in Nevada: https://www.pointblankpolitical.com/nv-democratic-caucus-2020/

Which is probably why Bernie is so weak in that poll, even being beaten by Klobuchar of all people.

But it also shows that for older progessives, Steyer is probably considered an alternative to Sanders.