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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 40 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - October 1-7, 2018

Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

Anybody who has payed attention to Japanese sales for the last few years knows that it takes awhile for 3rd party sales to transition from 1 platform to the next.

The exact same thing happened with Vita & PS4, for the first year or two PSP & PS3 versions were selling just as much or better.

Big difference though is that PS4 had terrible HW sales and install base, so of course the games on 10m PS3 and 5m Vita sold more than PS4. The Switch on the other hand nearly equals PS4 install base.

Well I doubt the active userbase for PS3 was anywhere close to 10m in 2014/2015 but yes that is something that needs to be taken into account, however I believe my point still stands that multiplatform/cross-gen sales take a while to transition in Japan.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

Big difference though is that PS4 had terrible HW sales and install base, so of course the games on 10m PS3 and 5m Vita sold more than PS4. The Switch on the other hand nearly equals PS4 install base.

Well I doubt the active userbase for PS3 was anywhere close to 10m in 2014/2015 but yes that is something that needs to be taken into account, however I believe my point still stands that multiplatform/cross-gen sales take a while to transition in Japan.

Talking about active userbase only reinforces the point that Switch games should outsell PS4 games ;). Of course multiplatforms will take a long time to transition and will possibly never transition. Even in the US when Wii/360 had a massive userbase advantage over PS3, many japanese games sold better on PS3. Userbase and demographics are just too different for PS4 and Switch, it is unlikely that the demographics will change without a big push from either publishers or manufacturers. For example we saw a positive climb with the 360 and pandering to the japanese audience but then a grand collapse when they did the opposite with the XB1.



Honestly, the only good news in this chart this week is Super Mario Party, that debuted with good numbers.Other than that, sales have been either mediocre or outright bad,

Dissapointed with Megaman 11 sales.Really hopping that it will compensate with the digital sales, or that it has sold better in the west.PS4 sales are just simply bad.I know its winding down, but hopefully it picks up a bit next week.Switch sales are decent, but dissapointing given the releases it had this week.I expected something close to 60k if Im being completely honest.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

Well I doubt the active userbase for PS3 was anywhere close to 10m in 2014/2015 but yes that is something that needs to be taken into account, however I believe my point still stands that multiplatform/cross-gen sales take a while to transition in Japan.

Talking about active userbase only reinforces the point that Switch games should outsell PS4 games ;). Of course multiplatforms will take a long time to transition and will possibly never transition. Even in the US when Wii/360 had a massive userbase advantage over PS3, many japanese games sold better on PS3. Userbase and demographics are just too different for PS4 and Switch, it is unlikely that the demographics will change without a big push from either publishers or manufacturers. For example we saw a positive climb with the 360 and pandering to the japanese audience but then a grand collapse when they did the opposite with the XB1.

Not really, my point was simply that in 2014/2015 it wasnt really a 10m vs 1-2m situation like you alluded to.

You're right that the demographics may never move over to Switch but all I'm saying is that it has been a trend that sales of multiplatform titles take awhile to move to newer systems.

For the first couple years of Vita, many mulitplat titles sold as much or more on PSP/PS3.

For the first couple years of PS4, many multiplat titles sold as much or more on PS3/Vita.

So far for NSW, many multiplat titles have sold as much or more on Vita/PS4.

For the first couple years of PS5, many multiplat titles will likely sell as much or more on PS4/NSW.

 

That was my whole point when responding to the person who said, "By this point in the Switch's lifecycle, I would expect a significant disparity between it and the PS4 when it comes to third party titles releasing on the same day".



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

Well I doubt the active userbase for PS3 was anywhere close to 10m in 2014/2015 but yes that is something that needs to be taken into account, however I believe my point still stands that multiplatform/cross-gen sales take a while to transition in Japan.

Talking about active userbase only reinforces the point that Switch games should outsell PS4 games ;). Of course multiplatforms will take a long time to transition and will possibly never transition. Even in the US when Wii/360 had a massive userbase advantage over PS3, many japanese games sold better on PS3. Userbase and demographics are just too different for PS4 and Switch, it is unlikely that the demographics will change without a big push from either publishers or manufacturers. For example we saw a positive climb with the 360 and pandering to the japanese audience but then a grand collapse when they did the opposite with the XB1.

360 uservase advantage in Japan? Lol



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zorg1000 said:
Train wreck said:

By this point in the Switch's lifecycle, I would expect a significant disparity between it and the PS4 when it comes to third party titles releasing on the same day (especially those that favor the Switch audience) but 3rd party Switch titles are receiving the Vita sales treatment...which isn't good (from the publishers perspective).

Anybody who has payed attention to Japanese sales for the last few years knows that it takes awhile for 3rd party sales to transition from 1 platform to the next.

The exact same thing happened with Vita & PS4, for the first year or two PSP & PS3 versions were selling just as much or better.

19 months is more than enough time to see a trend establishing.  Many of the games released on the PS4 and PSV simultaneously never appeared on Nintendo consoles... so that, along with having no Playstation portable replacement plus the PS4 winding down means that, to me, we should be seeing the Switch start expanding this market (3rd party titles, Switch has the most active userbase and its sales projections are greater than the Vita and PS4) and its just not happening.



zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

Talking about active userbase only reinforces the point that Switch games should outsell PS4 games ;). Of course multiplatforms will take a long time to transition and will possibly never transition. Even in the US when Wii/360 had a massive userbase advantage over PS3, many japanese games sold better on PS3. Userbase and demographics are just too different for PS4 and Switch, it is unlikely that the demographics will change without a big push from either publishers or manufacturers. For example we saw a positive climb with the 360 and pandering to the japanese audience but then a grand collapse when they did the opposite with the XB1.

Not really, my point was simply that in 2014/2015 it wasnt really a 10m vs 1-2m situation like you alluded to.

You're right that the demographics may never move over to Switch but all I'm saying is that it has been a trend that sales of multiplatform titles take awhile to move to newer systems.

For the first couple years of Vita, many mulitplat titles sold as much or more on PSP/PS3.

For the first couple years of PS4, many multiplat titles sold as much or more on PS3/Vita.

So far for NSW, many multiplat titles have sold as much or more on Vita/PS4.

For the first couple years of PS5, many multiplat titles will likely sell as much or more on PS4/NSW.

 

That was my whole point when responding to the person who said, "By this point in the Switch's lifecycle, I would expect a significant disparity between it and the PS4 when it comes to third party titles releasing on the same day".

I refute that due to userbase argument. First couple years for both Vita and PS4 were rather poor compared to the massive userbase of PSP/PS3, SW multiplat sales were to be expected low. NSW doesn't have that excuse. To put it another way PS4 and Vita had very little chance to have high selling games as demonstrated by the time they got their first million seller years after release. NSW got a million seller within a year or 2 and is on par with the other consoles already, so the multiplat games should be selling much better. Though his post may be hyperbole, there still is significant advantage to PS4 games > Swtich games for same day releases.

"For the first couple years of PS5, many multiplat titles will likely sell as much or more on PS4/NSW." will remain true unless PS5 has massive sales out of the gate like the NSW imo.




I refute that due to userbase argument. First couple years for both Vita and PS4 were rather poor compared to the massive userbase of PSP/PS3, SW multiplat sales were to be expected low. NSW doesn't have that excuse. To put it another way PS4 and Vita had very little chance to have high selling games as demonstrated by the time they got their first million seller years after release. NSW got a million seller within a year or 2 and is on par with the other consoles already, so the multiplat games should be selling much better. Though his post may be hyperbole, there still is significant advantage to PS4 games > Swtich games for same day releases.

"For the first couple years of PS5, many multiplat titles will likely sell as much or more on PS4/NSW." will remain true unless PS5 has massive sales out of the gate like the NSW imo.

Like you said earlier demographics are more important than install base. The install base doesnt matter if the audience for those games is not on the system yet.

The big 1st party games on Switch along with rapidly decreasing/non-existant major 1st party titles on 3DS/Wii U has ensured that fans of those franchises are moving over rather quickly.

The same cannot be said when it comes to 3rd party titles because in most cases they are either late ports or the franchises audience is still active on other platforms (like early Vita/PS4 3rd party titles) and have little reason to move over if they aren't also big fans of Nintendo franchises.

3rd parties need to build an audience for their multiplatform titles on Switch just like they had to for Vita & PS4.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

0D0 said:
Wow, people still play Mario Party

Why you sound surprised about that? They finally remove the car so lots of people are interested again.



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Kai_Mao said:
PwerlvlAmy said:
Good Switch numbers. Really ouch PS4 numbers. I feel sad to see Astro Bot so far down in the chart. Astro Bot deserves more love :(

How is PSVR doing in Japan?

We got week 1 sales for PS VR and then I don't believe any sales tracker released any updates on it.



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Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

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