In April 2011, I made a thread where I predicted that PS4 would be on top, with reasons as to why.  It is here if you wish to read it.  I have decided to do a new thread since we have so much more info.

Wii U

Back in 2011, the only thing we really had to go on was rumors that it woudn't be much more powerful than the PS3.  This was partly supported by leaked photos from a Nintendo presentation that showed they were promoting easy porting from the 360 to the Wii U.  Well, the Wii U has released and it turns out the rumors were true.  After a good start, mostly pushed by Nintendo fans, sales have dropped incredibly.  So much so, that the Wii U started selling like a dying console only after a month or so after it had released.  Originally, I had expected Sony and MS to drop the base PS3 and 360 Elite (250GB SKU now) to $199 to combat Nintendo's new console, but because of poor sales, they felt no need.  True, MS dropped their SKUs by $50, but this was only for the holidays.  Sony actually increased their entry price by $20, but included a game.

This isn't to say the Wii U is doomed to be a horrible failure.  While casuals don't seem as infatuated with the tablet controller as they were with the Wii controller, and core gamers aren't being swayed on the graphic side of things, sales will definitely increase after a price cut and it has a larger SW library.  Having said that, I still think it is a shoe in for a 2nd or 3rd place finish with the way sales are going currently, even with the price cut boost.  I'm expecting Nintendo to have another N64 on their hands.  While it will probably end up profitable for Nintendo (barring any quick price cuts), it's sales numbers won't blow anyone away.

NeXbox & PS4

I'm including the NeXbox and PS4 in the same section because they are going to be the most comparable of the three this gen, so you can't really talk about one without mentioning the other.

It appears that the rumors for the Wii U were correct, as well as the ones for PS4 being spot on, so I have no doubt that the rumors for the NeXbox will be correct.  These include 8GB DDR3 (slower than the PS4's), Kinect 2 in every box, the same CPU that is found in the PS4, and a weaker GPU.  As for the always online and blocking used games rumors, I won't address them, as I think they are ridiculously stupid for any company to include and I think MS will end up not doing them.  At least for their sake, they better not.  Anyway, in the end it looks like we are getting a less powerful system than the PS4, but with the addition of the new Kinect, it will probably end up costing about the same as the PS4.

I think we can already assume Japan will not jump on the NeXbox bandwagon, so PS4 is definitely set to conquer that region.  For EU, it seems that overall they are very loyal to Sony.  Even with the 1 1/2 year deficit and much larger price, the PS3 has gone on to sell over 5.6M more than the 360 in that region.  The gap will only get bigger, probably ending ~8M or so.  So, given the PS4 will have AT MAX a 6 month launch deficit in EU, as well as launching at the same price, I think it's pretty obvious which way EU is going to go.  Plus, Kinect was never that popular over there to begin with, so I don't think Kinect 2 will make much of a splash, either.

So, this leaves NA.  While it is true that the Xbox brand has grown greatly in the US, I think this is mostly because of MS capitalizing on PS3's shortcomings.  The PS3 came out a year later, it was $200 more, and it's multiplat games weren't up to par with the 360 versions for at least 1-2 years.  While I do give MS credit for playing their cards right to take advantage of the PS3's situation, Sony is not giving them that chance this gen.  At most, I expect the PS4 to be $50-$75 more than the NeXbox.  The PS4 is scheduled to release later this year, given no time advantage to the NeXbox.  As for multiplats, Sony is no longer going to get be getting poor ports.  In fact, with the better GPU and easy to develop on HW, Sony will most likely be getting the better version of most multiplats.  Of course, this doesn't even take 1st and 3rd party exclusives, which will definitely look better on the PS4.

In Conclusion

I see Sony coming out on top next gen, though probably not like the PS2 days.  The Wii U can improve its situation, but with a lack of interest in the product, it won't be enough to boost it to the market leader.  The NeXbox won't get much support from consumers in Japan, possibly less in EU this time around, as well.  NA is game for anyone, but even if the NeXbox comes out on top, I doubt the gap will be anything like it was this gen.  Definitely not enough to overcome the lead the PS4 will have in Japan and EU. 

Thoughts?

Ah, man, who knows. I can say that, from my own perspective, I'm very pleased with what I've seen from the PS4 so far. It sounds like an excellent system for people who like Sony games and traditional gaming.

However, it's not unusual for products that enthusiasts think are the best to perform the worst. I mean, AKB48 owns the Japanese music charts, right? What the hell?

That is to say, I think the Xbox 720i could be AKB48.

They've got the financial backing, they've got the advertising and the slick marketing, they've got the cat ears and short skirts. Microsoft can bring the fluff and circumstance like no other. Based on that, and that alone, the next xbxoxox could win. If they pack the goods and are comparable to the PS4 in gaming, plus the pretty-pretty-meow-meow factor, plus old people and teenage girls who don't really know what to do with themselves, it could add up to winning points.

So, yeah.

Or the Wii U could do something extremely clever and mind-bending, like Mario & Bayonetta's Dance Party Samurai Warriors, which takes off and sell 83.2 million copies in one week.

Even if the PS4 turns out to be the best gaming thing, it might not turn out to be the most trendiest thing, which could make it a second-place thing. Which is where I think it will end up.

This is almost exactly how I think it will play out. People don't seem to put a lot of weight into $200 more or being late by at least a year in each region (a year and a half in it's strongest). Those are GIGANTIC errors that won't be repeated (at least not nearly to the same level) so they'll have to actually outdo what PS does and outpace them in sales (which they couldn't even do WITH those huge advantages). Let's not forget Wii completely stealing PS3 hype too as well as holiday sales considering it was literally less than half the price. PS3 is about as low as Sony can go I think because they did almost nothing right with the launch. You know PS will have awesome software support and most likely keep basic online stuff free, so I don't see a scenario where Xbox can gain an advantage, only ones where it loses its advantages from this gen, especially near launch.

For those of you who dismiss price and release date as people just choosing xbox over PS this gen I ask you one question, do you think if MS had launched at $200 more a year after PS they would be anywhere close to 70 million consoles sold by now? That's what I thought.

Rule of gaming sales: the most powerful format loses out. Comments please.

PS I predicted NextBox. I own a WiiU

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Rol does it again. Nice find there.

I think that if the Vita doesn't bankrupt Sony first, the PS4 just might do it. Nintendo is looking pretty bleak unless they can win the hearts of the children over the christmas season and Microsoft might do well if kinect 2 connects with the casual market.

Decent thread. I think it will be a near 33% split between the three, but if I had to pic one overall winner I think it would be MS. MS will do OK in Europe while the status quo will remain the same in Japan. This will, however, severely hurt any global dominance MS hopes to attain over Sony and Ninty, thereby balancing things out.

Come the fall/holiday I see the launches of both the xbox and PS4 as being reasonable. The PS4 will be price lowered than the ps3 at its starting point and will most likely launch in all territories. There will be a big enough gap in graphics for to sway people into buying the next HD console (especially for the big titles that core fans worry about, this includes madden, fifa, battlefield, cod, assassins creed, and destiny and any announced high profile games at E3).

The new xbox will be aided by its different price structure, akin to a cell phone model where the initial cost upfront will be lower.

The January NPD pretty much revealed Nintendo's hand and how its casual audience is price and income sensitive. With the payroll tax increase, the upcoming sequester, the starting of Obamacare in March and the increase taxes there, states increasing taxes, the disposable income of parents will be going down, which effects their buying of games/systems to kids (who have no job or credit). You saw lower priced Wii and DS still do well in the US while the Wii U was abysmal and 3DS were down y/y even with an extra week. And contrary to the belief here, new games will not solve that problem. I see the same events playing out in Europe and Japan being the only territory where Nintendo will have any traction as they have adopted the 3DS as the core system, meaning they will devote any extra income to buying the system and games.

To be fair, that was before the FUD price cut Nintendo pulled.  I would have never thought they would have dropped the price by $80 in just four months from release.  If they had stayed the same price, I imagine they would have both performed similarly.

For your previous comment, you don't think EU is pretty loyal to Sony?  Even with all of those disadvantages, the PS3 has such a large lead over the 360.  It took only 2 1/2 years for the PS2 to make up for and overtake a 2.72M deficit in EU.  That's some loyalty.  I also don't see how your percentages mean anything, as the PS4 will have none of the disadvantages the PS3 had against the NeXbox.  You don't think that will have any bearing on the PS4's performance?  Or are you just hoping it doesn't.