In April 2011, I made a thread where I predicted that PS4 would be on top, with reasons as to why. It is here if you wish to read it. I have decided to do a new thread since we have so much more info.
Wii U
Back in 2011, the only thing we really had to go on was rumors that it woudn't be much more powerful than the PS3. This was partly supported by leaked photos from a Nintendo presentation that showed they were promoting easy porting from the 360 to the Wii U. Well, the Wii U has released and it turns out the rumors were true. After a good start, mostly pushed by Nintendo fans, sales have dropped incredibly. So much so, that the Wii U started selling like a dying console only after a month or so after it had released. Originally, I had expected Sony and MS to drop the base PS3 and 360 Elite (250GB SKU now) to $199 to combat Nintendo's new console, but because of poor sales, they felt no need. True, MS dropped their SKUs by $50, but this was only for the holidays. Sony actually increased their entry price by $20, but included a game.
This isn't to say the Wii U is doomed to be a horrible failure. While casuals don't seem as infatuated with the tablet controller as they were with the Wii controller, and core gamers aren't being swayed on the graphic side of things, sales will definitely increase after a price cut and it has a larger SW library. Having said that, I still think it is a shoe in for a 2nd or 3rd place finish with the way sales are going currently, even with the price cut boost. I'm expecting Nintendo to have another N64 on their hands. While it will probably end up profitable for Nintendo (barring any quick price cuts), it's sales numbers won't blow anyone away.
NeXbox & PS4
I'm including the NeXbox and PS4 in the same section because they are going to be the most comparable of the three this gen, so you can't really talk about one without mentioning the other.
It appears that the rumors for the Wii U were correct, as well as the ones for PS4 being spot on, so I have no doubt that the rumors for the NeXbox will be correct. These include 8GB DDR3 (slower than the PS4's), Kinect 2 in every box, the same CPU that is found in the PS4, and a weaker GPU. As for the always online and blocking used games rumors, I won't address them, as I think they are ridiculously stupid for any company to include and I think MS will end up not doing them. At least for their sake, they better not. Anyway, in the end it looks like we are getting a less powerful system than the PS4, but with the addition of the new Kinect, it will probably end up costing about the same as the PS4.
I think we can already assume Japan will not jump on the NeXbox bandwagon, so PS4 is definitely set to conquer that region. For EU, it seems that overall they are very loyal to Sony. Even with the 1 1/2 year deficit and much larger price, the PS3 has gone on to sell over 5.6M more than the 360 in that region. The gap will only get bigger, probably ending ~8M or so. So, given the PS4 will have AT MAX a 6 month launch deficit in EU, as well as launching at the same price, I think it's pretty obvious which way EU is going to go. Plus, Kinect was never that popular over there to begin with, so I don't think Kinect 2 will make much of a splash, either.
So, this leaves NA. While it is true that the Xbox brand has grown greatly in the US, I think this is mostly because of MS capitalizing on PS3's shortcomings. The PS3 came out a year later, it was $200 more, and it's multiplat games weren't up to par with the 360 versions for at least 1-2 years. While I do give MS credit for playing their cards right to take advantage of the PS3's situation, Sony is not giving them that chance this gen. At most, I expect the PS4 to be $50-$75 more than the NeXbox. The PS4 is scheduled to release later this year, given no time advantage to the NeXbox. As for multiplats, Sony is no longer going to get be getting poor ports. In fact, with the better GPU and easy to develop on HW, Sony will most likely be getting the better version of most multiplats. Of course, this doesn't even take 1st and 3rd party exclusives, which will definitely look better on the PS4.
In Conclusion
I see Sony coming out on top next gen, though probably not like the PS2 days. The Wii U can improve its situation, but with a lack of interest in the product, it won't be enough to boost it to the market leader. The NeXbox won't get much support from consumers in Japan, possibly less in EU this time around, as well. NA is game for anyone, but even if the NeXbox comes out on top, I doubt the gap will be anything like it was this gen. Definitely not enough to overcome the lead the PS4 will have in Japan and EU.
Thoughts?
