This is almost exactly how I think it will play out. People don't seem to put a lot of weight into $200 more or being late by at least a year in each region (a year and a half in it's strongest). Those are GIGANTIC errors that won't be repeated (at least not nearly to the same level) so they'll have to actually outdo what PS does and outpace them in sales (which they couldn't even do WITH those huge advantages). Let's not forget Wii completely stealing PS3 hype too as well as holiday sales considering it was literally less than half the price. PS3 is about as low as Sony can go I think because they did almost nothing right with the launch. You know PS will have awesome software support and most likely keep basic online stuff free, so I don't see a scenario where Xbox can gain an advantage, only ones where it loses its advantages from this gen, especially near launch.
For those of you who dismiss price and release date as people just choosing xbox over PS this gen I ask you one question, do you think if MS had launched at $200 more a year after PS they would be anywhere close to 70 million consoles sold by now? That's what I thought.
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