Come the fall/holiday I see the launches of both the xbox and PS4 as being reasonable. The PS4 will be price lowered than the ps3 at its starting point and will most likely launch in all territories. There will be a big enough gap in graphics for to sway people into buying the next HD console (especially for the big titles that core fans worry about, this includes madden, fifa, battlefield, cod, assassins creed, and destiny and any announced high profile games at E3).
The new xbox will be aided by its different price structure, akin to a cell phone model where the initial cost upfront will be lower.
The January NPD pretty much revealed Nintendo's hand and how its casual audience is price and income sensitive. With the payroll tax increase, the upcoming sequester, the starting of Obamacare in March and the increase taxes there, states increasing taxes, the disposable income of parents will be going down, which effects their buying of games/systems to kids (who have no job or credit). You saw lower priced Wii and DS still do well in the US while the Wii U was abysmal and 3DS were down y/y even with an extra week. And contrary to the belief here, new games will not solve that problem. I see the same events playing out in Europe and Japan being the only territory where Nintendo will have any traction as they have adopted the 3DS as the core system, meaning they will devote any extra income to buying the system and games.
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