2024 US Presidential Election

[Mnementh]

sundin13 said:

Some interesting polling stuff happening over the last couple days. While polling moved pretty consistently for the first few weeks of the race, there seems to have been a bit of a split recently. We're still getting polls that are quite good for Harris (+6 Harris from Outward Intelligence, +5 from Emerson College, +5 from Activote), but there have been more solid polls for Trump popping up (+2 Trump from RMG Research, Even from Cygnal, +1 Trump from Fox). Similar trends have been happening with some of the state level polling.

Unsure if this is just normal polling fluctuations or a trend emerging at this point. Given that Harris is still getting plenty of good polls, I'm inclined to think that we're just reaching a plateau and seeing normal polling fluctuations but it's definitely something to keep an eye on. If Harris can't get above +3 Nationally, this is going to be a nailbiter to the end.

Well, there usually is an after candidate naminating congress bump. As this time the nominated candidate was brand new I assume this made more of wave than usual. But there should also be the normal bump - and this tends to wear off over time. So probably Harris will not stay that high, although she probably also don't fall to the level of Biden. As polls have different runtimes and different time between the period people were asked and publication it can happen that polls for a short time diverge if there is a change.