Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

[Mnementh]

Well, first I take issue with sales dynamic of Nintendo consoles, as many of them had very different sales dynamic.

But onto the question in the thread title. Obviously it is very early to guesstimate lifetime sales, but I think we can make a few guesses here.

I think nobody disagrees, that Switch is on track to outsell PS4. So comparing PS5 to PS4 might be the easier task. Sony consistently is loosing foothold in Japan. That was visible with the PS3 and PS4, and I have no indication that the trend is reversing. Sony has a strong base in europe though, and I think it can grow in the rest of the world, as Sony is pushing into new markets. America is always a place of fierce competition though. And I see not much room to grow in europe or even Sony losing a little ground.

The reason is that this gen the competition will be more difficult. Xbox fumbled last generation, the series X/S look like a much more promising combo. But there is also more competition outside the console space. First of all is PC becoming a lot more viable with newer and easier tech and Gamepass as a very value heavy offer. I see some players moving to PC. But there are also multiple streaming services now popping up, changing the face of gaming. They may very well take a big load of console customers and offer them access.

Now, classic hardcore console gamers may scoff at these ideas, but no one sell 100M+ consoles to classic hardcore console gamers. Many gamers enjoying multiplatform games may very well move to PC or streaming.

So in conclusion: I see PS5 barely reaching PS4 number. As we established Switch probably will outsell PS4, this means PS5 will also lose to Switch.

Again, this is pretty early, some major things may change. I just don't see them so far.