Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

[Mnementh]

Bofferbrauer2 said:

numberwang said:

Very interesting constellation now. We have Bernie against 4 establishment candidates Biden, Bloomberg, Butti & Warren. If all of them run to the end they will split the mainstream vote and Bernie will will get a plurality but no absolute majority (Sanders is polling at less than 30%).

The establishment could either unite behind one candidate now and win like SHE won in 2016 against Bernie. Or they declare that a 30% plurality fringe candidate just doesn't cut it and a 70% majority mainstream candidate has to be nominated at the end.

That's not exactly how it works.

If some candidates would drop out, then all the remaining candidates will get at least some of their votes. In the case of Warren or Biden, Sanders would actually even get the most votes from them dropping out. Which would make it pretty certain for Bernie to win.

Right now on 538 Bernie has a 47% chance to win, Biden 8%, Bloomberg 3% and everybody else below 1%. But the second highest number is actually no one with 41%, aka a brokered convention. So their best chance is to sit it out until the end and hope that Bernie doesn't pass the necessary threshold so they can choose whom they want to send against Trump. Anybody dropping out would benefit Bernie more than help the chances of any establishment democrat, as it pushes him higher, too.

Exactly. This is because the idea of fixed voting blocks or lanes is only superficial. People are after all individuals. So an individual might for some reason like Bloomberg and Sanders (maybe because this person hates Trump and thinks these two have the best chance at beating Trump). Such persons exist. It is only more likely that a person exist that likes Warren and Sanders. So Bloomberg dropping out probably would give Sanders less new voters than Warren, but Sanders still would get them. Also we have to consider the people, that stop caring the moment their candidate drops out. They don't vote anymore, which in result is mostly helping the ones in the lead. And that is currently Sanders.