Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

[Mnementh]

538 notices Sanders surge: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-sanders-is-pulling-closer-to-biden-but-hes-still-got-a-ways-to-go/

There are a few things to notice here, which aren't covered in the article. First: the model includes expected bounces from winning primaries. So if the model expects Sanders to win Iowa closely, but actually Biden does win by a hair, it consequently changes the outcomes of the following races. Similarly the model has a baked in bounce bonus for the early states. That may or may not be the reality. If not for instance that would be good news for Bloomberg who doesn't focus on the early states. But how much the effect of the early states actually is, is hard to really put a finger on. As this is the first primary model by 538 the effect are hand-picked numbers for the four early states.

For more information look at how the model works: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-2020-primary-model-works/

Also note the following: even small changes in polling for Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg are important for delegates, because of the 15% rule. The more states a candidate actually goes above 15%, the more overall delegates this candidate gets and the more loses the winner of the state. Actually a small change in polling probably has a smaller effect on the states winner as if another candidate ends up with 14% or 16% in that same state. In the second case the winner probably loses more delegates, even if he also gains 2%. That is also something to keep in mind and watch for in the polls.