Mnementh on 08 August 2019
SpokenTruth said:
haxxiy said:
Chances of nomination according to 538 based on historical data. Blue line is 100% name recognition, red line 50% name recognition. According to Morning Consult, all candidates are above 50% name recognition except for someone called "Seth Moulton". Sanders, Biden, Warren, Harris are around or above 90%. Looking pretty good for Uncle Joe - mind that primaries usually have smaller fields, as well, so his chances are higher than the graph suggests on all likehood.
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That reads weird.
For instance, if you had high name recognition with early polling at 30%, you'd have a 40% chance of nomination. But if you had low name recognition with early polling at 30%, you'd have a 90% change of nomination? How the hell? Are they saying at the same early polling rate, the lower name recognition candidate has a much higher chance at nomination?
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If an unknown candidate already polls high it is a very bullish indicator that others that learn about the candidate may like him too.
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