Prediction: Wii U will sell under 40 million units

[Mnementh]

Salnax said:

pitzy272 said:

This is off-topic, but ive been wondering...Why are some ppl acting like the Wii U conference was some saving grace for the Wii U all of a sudden? Back at E3, I was fully expecting Nintendo to show off how impressive the Wii U system/technology was, but I was impressed how underwhelming it was for the most part.

Now I see the recent Wii U conference, and other than the pretty good price tag, I was expecting to see ppl's comments reflect my still-underwhelmed feelings. I guess my main confusion is the launche lineup. Other than 2-3 games, it seems quite weak to me; yet, ppl are touting it as this amazing thing. I guess ill use snowdog's comment from above as an example:

He described all of the following as "system sellers": NSMB U, Pikmin 3, Lego game, Rayman, Zombie U, Alien: Colonial Marines, Dragon Quest X, Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate

NSMB U: Sure, obvious.
Pikmin 3: Have heard some fair excitement for this game, but first 2 games sold 1.6 and 1.2 million
Lego game: really? I mean, some decent sales, considering; but still, best sales in recent times was 2010 with ~2mill on wii (and this even had the power of the Harry Potter name behind it)
Rayman: heard last was pretty good, but system seller? Idc how. Last game sold not even 1.5 million across all 3 systems
Zombie U: decent looking bbut no where near resident evil from my perspective. Idt it looks interesting enough to even rent
Aliens: CM: releasing on all 3 systems, no? Why would it be a system seller even if it was exclusive?
Dragon Quest X: just saw 2 of these games had good sales on ps2 and ds in 2004 and 2009, respectively. Don't know anything else about the franchise, though
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate: obviously MH is big in Japan, but isn't this a port with some extra features?

Not everyone claims all the games are system sellers, but there are definitely a lot ofnppl describing the launch lineup as something amazing. There are several games in the lineup that are games released long ago on ps360, with several other games coming to Wii U that are also coming to ps360 in the near future; yet both of those game lists are also being used as arguments for Wii U's launch lineup strength.

Anyways, it just seems like ppl are grasping at straws with this praise. I'm fully open to Catherine possibility that maybe I'm just missing something. As it stands, I just don't get it. So I'm hoping someone can make me understand.

Long story short, several major concerns were alleviated.

1. The large number of ports and multiplat releases seemingly confirms that 3rd parties are taking the Wii U seriously, something that previously was up in the air. We did not know if Call of Duty, the biggest multiplat franchise at the moment, was even coming to the Wii U! The fact that it, Assassin's Creed, Aliens, and all those other multiplat games, even the late ones like Mass Effect 3 and Batman: Arkham City, suggests that 3rd parties are at least willing to test the waters, something many never did for the Wii.

2. The existence of 3rd party exclusives, such as Rayman and ZombiU, suggest that 3rd parties will actually make use of the system's features. ZombiU in particular, which is being bundled in Europe, looks like the first game to prove what the Wii U can do, while also breathing new life into the genre to boot.

3. Nintendo, in addition to their own usual fare, seems to be trying to win back the hardcore gamer, as evidenced by their adoption of the Bayonetta franchise and their publishing of LEGO City and Ninja Gaiden 3. Plus, the new Mario, Mii, and Pikmin games have been looking better and better.

4. Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter are the strongest non-Nintendo franchises in Japan, proportionately similar to the strength of Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto in the West. Their coming to the Wii U early on, even as ports, suggests that the system will have an easy time establishing dominance there. At very least, Japanese gamers will have a more reasons to pick up Wii Us

A lot of the games are not system sellers and are honestly being overhyped (Pikmin 3 and the LEGO game come to mind), but are solid additions to an increasingly impressive library.

Plus, it's worth noting that most of the games announced so far are launch window titles. These eras are usually poor, especially for recent Nintendo systems. The fact that there is such a variety of quality content makes the Wii U look more like a purchase you won't regret making quickly.

I agree with the four points, and want to add some more:

5. While many of the named titles are no system-sellers, the lineup includes some: NSMBU, COD, Just Dance, Wii Fit and MH for Japan at least. The Wii basically had Wii Sports as system-seller. That are 4 global system-sellers against one on the Wii. Probably Wii Sports was a better system-seller as any of these alone, but together it will work.

6. And even if no system-sellers, the named franchises can sell 1 million and more as often proofed. That is no system-seller material, but it is a big game without a doubt. As you can see with Vita, such big games can boost the system for some weeks. Now add the boost of big games like Dragon Quest, Rayman, Lego City, Aliens, Tekken, Assassins Creed, Pikmin, Fifa, Madden, Scribblenauts and Skylanders. That are 11 titles, that are surely from big franchises. Also keep in mind, that many people want 3-5 games, before deciding for a system. With that much big titles, the probability for that happening is increased.

7. The Wii had problems to fill some genres. If a genre is left out at launch, it is much harder. The Wii had only few shooters, WiiU has already COD. The Wii had no fighter except Smash Bros, WiiU already has Tekken. I don't know how the NInja Gaiden  genre is named, but the Wii didn't had that either. I think that is the most important point of the launch-lineup: it already covers many different genres. That makes it much more probable, that more in this area will follow.

8. Also some good-looking new IPs fill the lineup: ZombiU, TankTankTank and Nintendoland. Given, the same was the case with Wii and Red Steel, Rayman Raving Rabbids, Wii Sports and Wii Play. But it is a plus that will potentially bring some more customers.