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Forums - Sales Discussion - Which game will sell the most this holiday season?

Zucas on 28 October 2008
vlad321 said:
Zucas said:
vlad321 said:
I was thinking until the end of December.

Well I get that but I mean the starting point haha. Like this week's sales data or next week's or what.

 

 

Oh sorry, Beginning of October till end end of December. Seems to be the hottest video game buying time in the year.

 

Alright thx. So Q4 2008. Well it's really then going to be between Gears of War 2 and Wii Fit. Who would have thought a game released last holiday season would be a main contender for best seller this holiday season.

My guesses though for Gears of War 2 by the end of the year is between 3-4 million. While Wii Fit has already sold so far about 850,000. It'll probably be at about 1.1 million by the end of the week. Usually holiday sales of big games show about 3-4x increase meaning Wii Fit could easily sale in some week around 1 million haha. Of course I don't see this as probably considering you have a little mroe to manufacture when it comes to Wii Fit as you have to make the balance board. However if we say that in 3 weeks of the year Wii Fit, the biggest weeks, it levels off to a tolerance of 600k a week then that's another 1.8 million. And then in the other 7 weeks it does it's normal average of 300k then that's another 2.1 million. Which of course add it all up and we are looking at 5 million in the timeframe.

Now remember that is tolerances which actually usually underestimates sales considering we know Wii Fit won't sell 300k a week on average during the last 10 weeks or 600k a week in those 3 there. But it works best just to show you the selling power of Wii Fit even without significant and normal holiday increases that games without a hardware would get.

So if Gears 2 can sell more than 5 million by the end of the year... which it'll be doing in a lot less time... then that will be the top dog... but it is highly doubtful that not only Gears 2 could sell more in that time than games that are more prevalent on the brand such as Halo 3 and Halo 2 or in the region such as GTA: Sa that this is not something I'm going to argue.

1. Wii Fit

2. Gears of War 2

 

And if Gears 2 does it then it deserves it because it would defy all trends and all logid which is possible in sales because you are trying to judge the stereotypes of human buying habits. Anyways sales behind that will include Resistance 2 with about 2-2.5 million and Animal crossing with 2-3 million(heavily dependent upon how Japan). And of course the other long term Wii game... Mario Kart Wii which should have about 2-3 million as well. Finally of course we have LittleBigPlanet, and some various multiplat games such as GHIV on 360 and Wii and COD4 on 360. These easily could go over the 2 million mark but I'll list it as such with rough estimates

1. Wii Fit- 5.00 million

2. Gears of War 2- 3.75 million

3. Mario Kart Wii- 3.00 million

4. Resistance 2, Fable II- 2.50 million

5. Animal Crossing: City Folk- 2.25 million

6. Call of Duty: World at War(360), LittleBigPlanet, and GH:WT(Wii,360), - 2.00 m

Differences between those 4 will be too negligble to give a certain difference. So this is my guesses. Seems almost unfair that games released so long ago will sell that much but Ninty definitely has a system that works.

UPDATED- almost forgot to put Fable II in there haha.



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Gears2VsH3 on 28 October 2008
Sullla said:

Most of these predictions are pretty bad. Gears of War 2 comes to mind immediately. Last year, Halo 3 (unquestionably a bigger game) released over a month earlier and sold just under 7m copies. And it still wasn't the top holiday seller. Gears 2 will be lucky to manage something in the 4-5m range. (Remember, this is HOLIDAY sales, not lifetime.)

Resistance 2, Little Big Planet, and Fable 2 are simply laughable in this category of discussion.

Me, I'll take Guitar Hero 4 (or whatever they're calling it). Last year, GH3 sold 7.06m copies in the holiday period - more than anything else. I really don't see how any game gets close this year - assuming we're not counting Wii Sports/Play as usual. Wii Fit will do obscenely well, but not being a new release will slow sales down somewhat. Ditto for Mario Kart Wii. Wii Music and Animal Crossing aren't going to sell in this range, or if they do, it will take much longer than the holiday period to achieve it.

Guitar Hero World Tour in an easy victory this year.

The only game that sold more than Halo 3 last year was Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, and it was on three consoles...

 



Tecmo on 28 October 2008

wii fit definitely...the game is amazing seller



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Kantor on 29 October 2008

It's worth noting that I read a year ago that 10% of WoW owners have Burning Crusade. I don't think WoTLK is going to cross 6 million.

Even if the Lich King is awesome.



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Ail on 29 October 2008
Kantor said:
It's worth noting that I read a year ago that 10% of WoW owners have Burning Crusade. I don't think WoTLK is going to cross 6 million.

Even if the Lich King is awesome.

 

Seeing how 25% of Wow players bought BC the day it was released I have a hard time believing that lol...

BC sold 2.4 million copies the day it was released and Wow had 10 million subscribers at the time and I would think it's fair to think the people that bought the expansion actually had a subscription...

And that did not include the 4 million or so China players as BC was released there much later...

 

In practice it's virtually impossible to meet anyone in game that doesn't have the expansion at this time....

 

Not everyone that bought Wow bought BC I agree but everyone that played Wow since BC was released has probably bought the expansion...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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Ail on 29 October 2008
Zucas said:
vlad321 said:
Zucas said:
vlad321 said:
I was thinking until the end of December.

Well I get that but I mean the starting point haha. Like this week's sales data or next week's or what.

 

 

Oh sorry, Beginning of October till end end of December. Seems to be the hottest video game buying time in the year.

 

Alright thx. So Q4 2008. Well it's really then going to be between Gears of War 2 and Wii Fit. Who would have thought a game released last holiday season would be a main contender for best seller this holiday season.

My guesses though for Gears of War 2 by the end of the year is between 3-4 million. While Wii Fit has already sold so far about 850,000. It'll probably be at about 1.1 million by the end of the week. Usually holiday sales of big games show about 3-4x increase meaning Wii Fit could easily sale in some week around 1 million haha. Of course I don't see this as probably considering you have a little mroe to manufacture when it comes to Wii Fit as you have to make the balance board. However if we say that in 3 weeks of the year Wii Fit, the biggest weeks, it levels off to a tolerance of 600k a week then that's another 1.8 million. And then in the other 7 weeks it does it's normal average of 300k then that's another 2.1 million. Which of course add it all up and we are looking at 5 million in the timeframe.

Now remember that is tolerances which actually usually underestimates sales considering we know Wii Fit won't sell 300k a week on average during the last 10 weeks or 600k a week in those 3 there. But it works best just to show you the selling power of Wii Fit even without significant and normal holiday increases that games without a hardware would get.

So if Gears 2 can sell more than 5 million by the end of the year... which it'll be doing in a lot less time... then that will be the top dog... but it is highly doubtful that not only Gears 2 could sell more in that time than games that are more prevalent on the brand such as Halo 3 and Halo 2 or in the region such as GTA: Sa that this is not something I'm going to argue.

1. Wii Fit

2. Gears of War 2

 

And if Gears 2 does it then it deserves it because it would defy all trends and all logid which is possible in sales because you are trying to judge the stereotypes of human buying habits. Anyways sales behind that will include Resistance 2 with about 2-2.5 million and Animal crossing with 2-3 million(heavily dependent upon how Japan). And of course the other long term Wii game... Mario Kart Wii which should have about 2-3 million as well. Finally of course we have LittleBigPlanet, and some various multiplat games such as GHIV on 360 and Wii and COD4 on 360. These easily could go over the 2 million mark but I'll list it as such with rough estimates

1. Wii Fit- 5.00 million

2. Gears of War 2- 3.75 million

3. Mario Kart Wii- 3.00 million

4. Resistance 2, Fable II- 2.50 million

5. Animal Crossing: City Folk- 2.25 million

6. Call of Duty: World at War(360), LittleBigPlanet, and GH:WT(Wii,360), - 2.00 m

Differences between those 4 will be too negligble to give a certain difference. So this is my guesses. Seems almost unfair that games released so long ago will sell that much but Ninty definitely has a system that works.

UPDATED- almost forgot to put Fable II in there haha.

 

Are you saying GH:WT will sell 2 millions on the 360 and the same on the Wii ?

Because if that's the case it should be number one on your list then. I don't think the author of the thread was asking for single platforms sales but total sales of a single game accross platforms..



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

MANUELF on 29 October 2008

Wii Sports then Wii Fit



S.T.A.G.E. on 29 October 2008

1. WOW: WOTLK
2. Wii Fit
3. Gears 2
4. Fable 2
5. Resistance 2
6. LBP



selnor on 29 October 2008
shio said:
Wrath of the Lich King will probably sell 3 millions in the 24 hours, and another 2 millions until December 31st. I expect it to reach 10 millions lifetime, since World of Warcraft will keep running for YEARS.

Since Warhammer Online released the active userbase of WOW dropped by 7 million. Over the next 12 months Warhammer is the new WOW. Everyone that I know who has played it says it's a far better game. As long as Warhammer release expansions quickly they will dominate. So I predict WOTLK wont do as well as previous WOW expansions.

 



vlad321 on 29 October 2008
selnor said:
shio said:
Wrath of the Lich King will probably sell 3 millions in the 24 hours, and another 2 millions until December 31st. I expect it to reach 10 millions lifetime, since World of Warcraft will keep running for YEARS.

Since Warhammer Online released the active userbase of WOW dropped by 7 million. Over the next 12 months Warhammer is the new WOW. Everyone that I know who has played it says it's a far better game. As long as Warhammer release expansions quickly they will dominate. So I predict WOTLK wont do as well as previous WOW expansions.

 

 

That's interesting, I've heard the exact opposite. Everyone I talk to prefers WoW to WAR. Also are you saying that before WAR WoW had 18 million active users? Because I'm sure Blizzard would have announced it to us. You obviously are clueless as to the workings of MMOs so please stop trolling and at least post something on topic.



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